Racket wrote:
old math professor wrote:
and they won't be back.
lol as they in the investing business every time someones swears they're out :
"see ya tomorrow!"
Nope. I know some people who were burned in dotcom who have never re-entered. They went whole-hog into RE.
Racket wrote:
VIX was at 80 at close. I don't think it's possilbe to sustain that sort of selling pressure without a relief rally in between. I will say it'll be awesome if the Dow rallies up like 2500 points tomorrow though.
Relief rally/short squeeze
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
This seems an idiotic thing to say, even by LRC standards, where dumb statements are the rule, not the exception. By any objective measure, we are in the middle of a fast crash, not a correction.
Of course, it may turn out I'm the dumb one. I am an idiot after all...
Day 2, boots on the ground report.
Walked my spouse half way to work today, as is our normal habit. Passed 1 or 2 pedestrians in the half hour to where I stop, we kiss and wish each other a nice day. Way less than usual (a normal count would be in the dozens, although many are university students, and school is closed). On the half hour walk back I passed about 5 people, which is again very low. So people are staying in, mainly. Also, everyone I passed gave me a wide berth (and vice versa). I went to the grocery store on the way back, got there about 820 (it opens 800) to see if I could get toilet paper. There were still a few dozen packages, although the big bargain packs were all gone. I guess the thing is to get there right at opening if I want a bargain on butt wipe. Like lining up for concert tickets, back in the day... :-)
Many people here are wearing rubber gloves, and face masks are maybe 50-50, including a lot of people covering up with their scarves (which are ubiquitous anyway). You don't realize how many potentially infected surfaces you touch (door handles, ATM touch screens, debit / credit card reader key pads, etc) until you start paying attention. I don't have rubber gloves, so I'm walking around with hand sanitiser in my pocket, using it often.
Stay safe out there everyone!
old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
I know someone whose mother cashed out her entire 401k somewhere in the 2008 crash because "the market wasn't doing well." Apparently she lost nearly half of her retirement. The person telling me the story thought it was a wise move and simply bad luck.
The market hates uncertainty, trump loves chaos.
old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
This is going to make 2008-2009 is a hiccup.
Look how propagandized you are. A massive loss of wealth over a short period of time is a "correction". Or volatility.
the idiot wrote:
old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
This seems an idiotic thing to say, even by LRC standards, where dumb statements are the rule, not the exception. By any objective measure, we are in the middle of a fast crash, not a correction.
Of course, it may turn out I'm the dumb one. I am an idiot after all...
Agreed.
Giles Corey wrote:
old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
This is going to make 2008-2009 is a hiccup.
Look how propagandized you are. A massive loss of wealth over a short period of time is a "correction". Or volatility.
Propagandized? You know very little about me.
Anytime the market goes from overvalued to undervalued there has been a correction. Of course, in this case the economy may be crushed, so we are experiencing more than a correction, but, none the less, we will have a correction.
My whole point is, most people don't have the psyche to ride out downturns in the market.
Many investors have only seen up, and think they are geniuses because they have been winners every year of their whole investing career. Some convinced themselves that this time is different, and the market can't go down.
The truth is, everyone has been a genius for the past 12 years or so. We will see how many geniuses remain in a year or so.
By the way, I am not a genius at investing. There are plenty of good people on this forum that know way more than me. But, I know what I know and also know what I don't know, and I invest according to what I know and never go beyond that.
old math professor wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
[quote]old math professor wrote:
I am surprised at how many intelligent people can't stomach a correction.
This is going to make 2008-2009 is a hiccup.
Look how propagandized you are. A massive loss of wealth over a short period of time is a "correction". Or volatility.
Propagandized? You know very little about me.
I know that you use the absurd language of the industry.
Correction? Volatility?
Give me a break
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On yea, valuations don’t matter:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETTogc3WkAAQlqQ.jpgI guess they do now.
I’ve seen a lot of different ways to calculate market valuation, but this is a new one for me.
Giles Corey wrote:
old math professor wrote:
This is going to make 2008-2009 is a hiccup.
Look how propagandized you are. A massive loss of wealth over a short period of time is a "correction". Or volatility.
Propagandized? You know very little about me.
I know that you use the absurd language of the industry.
Correction? Volatility?
Give me a break
Okay, I'll give you a break.
BTW, when assets are bought and sold, there is no loss of wealth. There are winners and losers, and accordingly there is wealth transfer. When the economy craters, well, then there is loss of wealth.
Wrong professor, both sides of a transaction can easily lose money, as long as the price keeps going down.
old math professor wrote:
My whole point is, most people don't have the psyche to ride out downturns in the market.
Many investors have only seen up, and think they are geniuses because they have been winners every year of their whole investing career. Some convinced themselves that this time is different, and the market can't go down.
OK but this isn't your average correction or downturn. If you throw out the panic selling event in 1987 (which the market recovered from fairly quickly) then the Dow just had it's worst day ever, beating out the crash of 1929 that started the mf'ing Great Depression. It's also the quickest entry into a bear market from ATH ever. Now the really strange part is that so far it seems like banks might actually be OK and debt is really cheap to service. We'll see how that plays out over the next month. A lot of businesses have stepped up and pledged to play employees through all of this (free market for the win btw; all others are playing JV). Consumer spending will tumble because people just won't be as active for a couple of weeks. But if they stay paid and employed then we might actually avoid two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The problem is with smaller businesses who can't afford to pay employees through this and also airlines which apparently will go bankrupt if they can't operate at 100% for a week (seems like some dog sh!t business planning but what do I know). White House just announced its seeking $850 billion for TARP 2.0. We'll see if it works.
The current situation is unprecedented and developing so quickly that I doubt there's anyone who can forecast further than a day in the future if that
Possibly, but lets say the price of Fords go down. Then there is a net loss of wealth, because all the Ford owners will sell at a loss. But, maybe the price of Chevys will go up. Or if not, maybe the price of horses will go up.
Not “possibly”, deflationary scenarios/depressions already have happened many times. Whole nations have gone bankrupt.
Then that would be the economy cratering.
