Down goes the Dow

DanM wrote:

DJIA at close 1987-10-19: 1,738.74

DJIA at close 2020-03-16: 20,188.52

More than 11 times your money in 33 years.

Sounds like a good deal to me.

yes. A balanced portfolio is up 7% per year for the last 10 years even after today.

That's very good.

And over 40-50 years the returns have been similar. Although inflation was higher in the past so real returns have been better recently.

Yes lots of uncertainty.

But check it out, so far this is still only a rationalization, in many cases. Look at the BA 5-year. Really? BA’s value increased 3x in 2 years? Not bloody likely, much or all of that was just based on bs. Now it’s back to 125.

This is closer to where BA should be, in the absence of the last few years’ pumping.

The thing is that pensions, insurers, etc will need to see some equity performance. It will go back up. They don’t want credit to be extinguished by any means. But they can’t let this go on for too long.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

600+ dow point rally already.

by lunch we'll be at new highs.

got an American patriot right here! keep up the optimism agip

Down 12.9%.

Second worst day in history.

Impressive.

Will tomorrow be one of those bounce back days you get during these meltdowns?

I got about $60k sitting in cash from the last of the stocks I dumped last week.

Worth a flyer?

Dow is back to January 2017 levels.

Ouch.

All your investment held as of Jan 2017 have no gain.

And everything you have bought since then has taken losses.

Giles Corey wrote:

Dow is back to January 2017 levels.

Ouch.

All your investment held as of Jan 2017 have no gain.

And everything you have bought since then has taken losses.

That only matters if you sell everything today.

Geezus. What is with these kinds of comments?

Bought way too early wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Dow is back to January 2017 levels.

Ouch.

All your investment held as of Jan 2017 have no gain.

And everything you have bought since then has taken losses.

That only matters if you sell everything today.

Geezus. What is with these kinds of comments?

Wow do you not understand wealth and value.

Maserati wrote:

Bailouts. Full-on socialism is not far over the horizon.

This shxt started a long time ago with interest, credit, hand-to-mouth, no savings, etc. High civilization is fragile, not robust.

Bailouts are guarenteed at this point. The only mysteries is how much and which industries. Romney suggested sending every adult $1,000. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens multiple times and with larger amounts.

TAA wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Bailouts. Full-on socialism is not far over the horizon.

This shxt started a long time ago with interest, credit, hand-to-mouth, no savings, etc. High civilization is fragile, not robust.

Bailouts are guarenteed at this point. The only mysteries is how much and which industries. Romney suggested sending every adult $1,000. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens multiple times and with larger amounts.

Yes, and just think you can use it to buy FANG stocks and Bitcoin. It so easy! No bad days! ?

Maserati wrote:

I think you are on to something, the effect of etf’s. A whole new market, and huge. Maybe a leading short-term indicator.

No other way VIX could hit 80. Spreads on options chains are ridiculous right now and ETFs have always had this weird dark pool redemption process in the background. I don't know but there's some insanity in options right now and it looks like people are scrambling to de-leverage and get on the other side of the bet.

I took about 1 mill. out of the market a couple years ago. Now it is all profit as the market drops below where it was when I jumped ship. I will start jumping back in at Dow=14,000, all in at Dow=12,000, unless it is still falling precipitously. I can't see a significant upside anytime soon. There will be a lot of bad news coming down the pike for a good long time. A month or two more of this chaos will shock the average investor. I know their psychology. Many will swear off the market, sell low, and they won't be back.

old math professor wrote:

and they won't be back.

lol as they in the investing business every time someones swears they're out :

"see ya tomorrow!"

I should have said they won't be back.........for a while.

aaaaand we're limit up now on the futures.

Insanity.

VIX was at 80 at close. I don't think it's possilbe to sustain that sort of selling pressure without a relief rally in between. I will say it'll be awesome if the Dow rallies up like 2500 points tomorrow though.

Also small caps? more like micro caps

Giles Corey wrote:

All your investment held as of Jan 2017 have no gain.

Not necessarily true.

Bought way too early wrote:

Kicking myself for buying in two weeks ago after the market had only fallen 10%. Yikes!

There is WAY too much uncertainty on economic downtime in the immediate future for the market to rise much right now. I honestly expect incremental drops over the next week or two down to 2000 +/- 200 points for the S&P. I'm going to pour in every dime I can come up with as overall I think the outlook for the economy over the next several years is nowhere near as dire as the market is right now. We could be back up at 3400 15 months from now, easy. That'd be one hell of a gain. Who knows though! A scenario like this is unprecedented.

That's fine as long you are not going all in and just sort of nibbling at stocks as they go down.

What I'm kicking myself for is using my Vanguard IRA account for transferring cash within the account to stock mutual funds. It takes about a day for it clear. In this insane volatility that is an eternity. At this point I'm just going to stick to my Fidelity acccounts to better capitalize on the dips.

Hey Ryan are you still holding that F that you were so fond of?