Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

L L wrote:

When 538 had the Dems at 34% chance to gain majority in the senate they had:

The Dem probably flipping NV an AZ and Heitkamp probably keeping the Dem seat in ND.

If all of their lead picks held, the Dems would take control.

Now they have Heitkamp behind in ND.

They also have Cruz easily beating Beto in TX but I don’t know about that.

And TN could still flip from red to blue.

The whole control of the senate may come down to Heitkamp vs Cramer in North Dakota.

Heitkamp voted to confirm Gorsuch, going against her fellow Democrats.

Now there is a vote on Kavanaugh. She expected to vote no and is in a red state. Her no vote could cost her the election and Dem control of the senate.

A yes for her may put Kavanaugh on the bench but get her the win and Dems control of the senate.

I think the senate is still up for grabs and we have no idea what first time or irregular voters may show up.

That's your first mistake. You follow the left biased Nate Silver who completely blew it in 2016. ...

Sorry brah, but yes.... wrote:

L L wrote:

So are you saying Republicans will sweep ND, NV, AZ and TX?

They need at least two of them.

Yes, unfortunately, the GOP will sweep the Senate races from the states you list. As has been previously stated in this thread...the most likely scenario for current political issue in 2018 are as follows: 1) Kavanaugh gets confirmed 2) Dems take back the House 3) GOP retains the Senate and likely picks up 1-3 seats in that chamber. Due to #1 and #3 (mainly #3) Trump will not be removed from office or forced to resign. I do not doubt that if #2 happens Trump will at least go through impeachment proceedings in the House. I am 50-50 on whether he would actually be impeached. And if he is I think it is unlikely (maybe a 10% chance) that a GOP controlled Senate convicts him—it’s not that many (most?) GOP Senators don’t realize Trump is a scumbag and terrible for the country but the current GOP Congressional members have repeatedly shown that for them its party/dogma >>>>> good of the country.

IF, by some miracle the Senate did vote to convict or were leaning in that direction that is where #1 comes to play. We all saw Kav’s disgusting performance in the Senate last week and he is clearly a lapdog for Trump. A SCOTUS challenge to an impeachment would like go in the administrations favor if creepy Kav is confirmed.

Thus, brahs, it is pretty much a guarantee Trump is here to stay trough 2020 and I, for one, think there is a good chance he gets re-elected by his mouth breathing, borderline ret@rded base.

Like the saying goes, Trumpers gonna Trump.

agip wrote:

Sorry brah, but yes.... wrote:

Yes, unfortunately, the GOP will sweep the Senate races from the states you list. As has been previously stated in this thread...the most likely scenario for current political issue in 2018 are as follows: 1) Kavanaugh gets confirmed 2) Dems take back the House 3) GOP retains the Senate and likely picks up 1-3 seats in that chamber. Due to #1 and #3 (mainly #3) Trump will not be removed from office or forced to resign. I do not doubt that if #2 happens Trump will at least go through impeachment proceedings in the House. I am 50-50 on whether he would actually be impeached. And if he is I think it is unlikely (maybe a 10% chance) that a GOP controlled Senate convicts him—it’s not that many (most?) GOP Senators don’t realize Trump is a scumbag and terrible for the country but the current GOP Congressional members have repeatedly shown that for them its party/dogma >>>>> good of the country.

IF, by some miracle the Senate did vote to convict or were leaning in that direction that is where #1 comes to play. We all saw Kav’s disgusting performance in the Senate last week and he is clearly a lapdog for Trump. A SCOTUS challenge to an impeachment would like go in the administrations favor if creepy Kav is confirmed.

Thus, brahs, it is pretty much a guarantee Trump is here to stay trough 2020 and I, for one, think there is a good chance he gets re-elected by his mouth breathing, borderline ret@rded base.

Like the saying goes, Trumpers gonna Trump.

this sounds pretty good, although I disagree that he has much of a shot of reelection. I mean come on. He is the least popular president of modern times. And what's worse, he generated intense dislike.

I'd also add that if hte house flips, the trump WH will be paralyzed by investigations. Without devin nunes running interference, the House can actually follow through on its job of overseeing the executive branch. Trump will hate that, very much. Even if there is no impeachment.

Trollminator wrote:

agip wrote:

this sounds pretty good, although I disagree that he has much of a shot of reelection. I mean come on. He is the least popular president of modern times. And what's worse, he generated intense dislike.

I'd also add that if hte house flips, the trump WH will be paralyzed by investigations. Without devin nunes running interference, the House can actually follow through on its job of overseeing the executive branch. Trump will hate that, very much. Even if there is no impeachment.

I’m going to hold on my position that GOP definitely keeps the Senate. If you’re on the left you are seeing mostly through the binoculars of liberal opinion-makers and probably feeling overly optimistic about the broad change in sentiment. If you’re on the right, you are seeing through the FOX binoculars and think Trump is killing it. It’s important to note that whether he actually is or isn’t performing on his agenda, the perception on the right is that he is killing it and sticking it to the libs. So what does this mean?

1. We know his support remains strong - he can count on most of his deplorables. This is bad news for the Dems running in states that are not tilted red as is.

2. The left is energized and ready to jump at the opportunity to vote their way

3. #2 above means nothing if the Dems nominate a weak candidate. This is the biggest unknown and probably the most important factor.

Seems Trump has an advantage going into 2020.

GOP isn’t losing the Senate this fall.

agip wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I’m going to hold on my position that GOP definitely keeps the Senate. If you’re on the left you are seeing mostly through the binoculars of liberal opinion-makers and probably feeling overly optimistic about the broad change in sentiment. If you’re on the right, you are seeing through the FOX binoculars and think Trump is killing it. It’s important to note that whether he actually is or isn’t performing on his agenda, the perception on the right is that he is killing it and sticking it to the libs. So what does this mean?

1. We know his support remains strong - he can count on most of his deplorables. This is bad news for the Dems running in states that are not tilted red as is.

2. The left is energized and ready to jump at the opportunity to vote their way

3. #2 above means nothing if the Dems nominate a weak candidate. This is the biggest unknown and probably the most important factor.

Seems Trump has an advantage going into 2020.

GOP isn’t losing the Senate this fall.

chance of the senate flipping is the same as the odds trump would win in 2016. Per 538.

As for the 2020 dem candidate, I'm really hoping Beto loses in texas so he can run for prez. It's either him or Biden at this point, and I'm not sure biden can stand toe to to with trump. Beto can.

agip wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I’m going to hold on my position that GOP definitely keeps the Senate. If you’re on the left you are seeing mostly through the binoculars of liberal opinion-makers and probably feeling overly optimistic about the broad change in sentiment. If you’re on the right, you are seeing through the FOX binoculars and think Trump is killing it. It’s important to note that whether he actually is or isn’t performing on his agenda, the perception on the right is that he is killing it and sticking it to the libs. So what does this mean?

1. We know his support remains strong - he can count on most of his deplorables. This is bad news for the Dems running in states that are not tilted red as is.

2. The left is energized and ready to jump at the opportunity to vote their way

3. #2 above means nothing if the Dems nominate a weak candidate. This is the biggest unknown and probably the most important factor.

Seems Trump has an advantage going into 2020.

GOP isn’t losing the Senate this fall.

chance of the senate flipping is the same as the odds trump would win in 2016. Per 538.

As for the 2020 dem candidate, I'm really hoping Beto loses in texas so he can run for prez. It's either him or Biden at this point, and I'm not sure biden can stand toe to to with trump. Beto can.

Silliest of Willies wrote:

agip wrote:

huh? Silver didn't blow anything. Silver said Trump had around a 1/3 chance of winning. Three coin flips, trump wins it once. , on average. That coin flip came up on election night. This is how probabilities work. Again, you are a deplorable and against education, experts and facts. So you don't understand this sort of thing.

Right now, 4 coin flips, the GOP wins the House once.

You feeling lucky?

Are you reading what you're saying? You're defending a guy's prediction in which he was wrong. There's nothing better than Leftists on LRC that clearly don't have the analytical skills or the quantitative education to deal with data and statistics.

First of all, Silver had Trump at 27% the morning of the election, and it crept up to 28% throughout the day. That's not "around 1/3" at all.

And this was AFTER Silver- the "expert", mind you- said Trump had a 2% chance of winning the nomination to begin with, and was always well behind reality through the primaries.

He blew it. I believe he'd readily admit that he blew it. Stop doubling down on stupid, Eric.

agip wrote:

Silliest of Willies wrote:

Are you reading what you're saying? You're defending a guy's prediction in which he was wrong. There's nothing better than Leftists on LRC that clearly don't have the analytical skills or the quantitative education to deal with data and statistics.

First of all, Silver had Trump at 27% the morning of the election, and it crept up to 28% throughout the day. That's not "around 1/3" at all.

And this was AFTER Silver- the "expert", mind you- said Trump had a 2% chance of winning the nomination to begin with, and was always well behind reality through the primaries.

He blew it. I believe he'd readily admit that he blew it. Stop doubling down on stupid, Eric.

really, I think you could master the concept of probabilities if you tried. It's not that hard. I tried to simplify it into coin flips for you but I guess that was too abstract.

The final poll was 28.6% likelihood of Trump winning. Should I have said 1 in 4 coin flips instead of 1 in 3? Whatever. You got me.