Down goes the Dow

well asia looks down 3% and australia is down 5%.

There's a weird time gap though - the uS was up 10% friday and they weren't, so that will probably make Monday in the US much worse than 5%. Probably another 10% down day, or at least a lock down at 7% at the open.

Could be a legit market crash...the data is looking very bad out there for the disease and the economy.

Maserati wrote:

Agip yes, I am already in gold, but gold is very tricky. It is not for gain, not necessarily even for a hedge, just an addition, something which at times might be uncorrelated.

.

not a hedge, not a gain but an addition.

Got it.

Classic masertalk.

Over the Atlantic now. I’m wondering whether we will be forced into self isolation. That won’t be so bad, I enjoy my own company. :)

I’ve placed orders for tomorrow to spend half my cash on US equities at nearly 20% off fridays close. I figure there’s maybe a 2-5% chance of getting that deep a discount. Probably not that high...

the idiot wrote:

Over the Atlantic now. I’m wondering whether we will be forced into self isolation. That won’t be so bad, I enjoy my own company. :)

I’ve placed orders for tomorrow to spend half my cash on US equities at nearly 20% off fridays close. I figure there’s maybe a 2-5% chance of getting that deep a discount. Probably not that high...

bravo. I hope you are rewarded.

asia is hanging in there, flat to down 2%. That's a good sign.

But US futures still locked at down 5%. They could trade at a higher price but not a lower price.

Europe is improving a bit as of 10:45 EST. Interesting. Still down but only 2-3%. hmm.

When I get around to it I will also place some orders to sell a bit with a wild bounce.

Likely none of my orders will be filled tomorrow.

agip wrote:

guesser.... wrote:

my guess is the market will continue to descend until agip,p, bad wigs and others are no longer guessing where the virus will take us because it will be clear. at that time, the market will take stock of exactly where the economy is and react accordingly...

but then i'm just a guesser who thinks the stock market is just gambling... what's that line from rounders? 'if after 30 minutes you can't figure out who the loser at the table is, it's you.' ...or something like that.

How can you possibly think the stock market makes losers of people, when all you have had to do is buy the index, hang on, and make 10 or 11% per year for 40 years?

It's a zero sum game, of course there's a loser.

I didn't say it was you maybe you are a winner.

the idiot wrote:

Over the Atlantic now. I’m wondering whether we will be forced into self isolation. That won’t be so bad, I enjoy my own company. :)

I’ve placed orders for tomorrow to spend half my cash on US equities at nearly 20% off fridays close. I figure there’s maybe a 2-5% chance of getting that deep a discount. Probably not that high...

i remember you said you were going to do something like that for the Friday open, at 10 percent of Thursday's close. I tried similar, but canceled the order and day traded most of the day instead. It worked out unusually well.

I don't have the guts for it tomorrow. I can sense that already.

Well, folks, it should be apparent the US economy is a house of cards.

Can the Fed prop it back up? Seems doubtful.

The gold market is small, fizz is different than paper, and miners are different again. Dollar vs basket, price of oil, part of economic cycle leading or trailing, etc. Gold is a guess, nothing more. Can’t hurt much if you limit yourself to say 5%, but it is by no means a sure thing, because it is not always uncorrelated.

I know, more masertalk. I write in an abbreviated fashion because I assume some understanding.

i bought a small stake in a gold ETF about three days ago and am underwater massively, which is no big deal only becuase it is a real small amount and so i am waiting it out. Bet i have a chance to make a small profit on it if i am discliplined enough to not get greedy.

Boots on the ground in my temporary European homeland. Very quiet in the airport. Exiting customs they were screening people based on point of origin; we went straight through since the world doesn’t realize that Canada is only about a week behind most European cities on the curve. Drive from the airport to home, nominally in morning rush hour - we left the airport at 840 am - took 40-45 minutes when it would normally be 1:30-45 at that time of day. Arrived bing home there are surprisingly a lot of cars parked in our street, suggesting a normal work day, which is unexpected. We will venture out for groceries soon, after I get my first proper coffee, and that will tell the tale...

Here’s wishing everyone as good a week ahead in the markets as possible!

Good luck everyone.

I’m bolt upright at 5 am staring at European trading and trying not to be too scared.

Us trading down the 9% it gained on Friday. So down around 11% over a year long period. Which is not so bad really.

Still very large gains over 3,5,10 years.

guesser.... wrote:

agip wrote:

How can you possibly think the stock market makes losers of people, when all you have had to do is buy the index, hang on, and make 10 or 11% per year for 40 years?

It's a zero sum game, of course there's a loser.

I didn't say it was you maybe you are a winner.

The stock market is the very definition of a non-zero sum game. Everyone who has played can win if they just sat there.

France stock market in free fall.

The high was a 6100, it is now at 3700.

People who had the whole index lost nearly 50% if they did not sale their benefits.

Euro markets down 7% to 9&%

Good chance we may hit 2nd circuit breaker.

I would surmise that the largest market caps, over owned equities (FANGMAN), become increasingly vulnerable.

the idiot wrote:

Boots on the ground in my temporary European homeland. Very quiet in the airport. Exiting customs they were screening people based on point of origin; we went straight through since the world doesn’t realize that Canada is only about a week behind most European cities on the curve. Drive from the airport to home, nominally in morning rush hour - we left the airport at 840 am - took 40-45 minutes when it would normally be 1:30-45 at that time of day. Arrived bing home there are surprisingly a lot of cars parked in our street, suggesting a normal work day, which is unexpected. We will venture out for groceries soon, after I get my first proper coffee, and that will tell the tale...

Here’s wishing everyone as good a week ahead in the markets as possible!

Stay safe

Maserati wrote:

The gold market is small, fizz is different than paper, and miners are different again. Dollar vs basket, price of oil, part of economic cycle leading or trailing, etc. Gold is a guess, nothing more. Can’t hurt much if you limit yourself to say 5%, but it is by no means a sure thing, because it is not always uncorrelated.

I know, more masertalk. I write in an abbreviated fashion because I assume some understanding.

Mas, I woke up in a state of existential dread and need you to tell me it'll be OK.

America is still the greatest ever right? We're gonna swoop in and save the whole world WW2 style right? Right!?!