Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

The DOW is no "sillier" than is any other index.

Wow. Just wow.

+1

agip!

In my experience, one of the worst things that can be said to someone who is riled-up, is "relax", or "dial it back a bit".

I will let your comments stand as-is, maybe we can revisit them later.

Futures looking good today, "better things" coming out of the ECB.

European models are unsustainable. There is a massive wave of die-off's happening there at the moment, of older people who lived through the war, especially old women.

What does this mean? It means that the culture will begin to change/shift, as those people were often the guardians of tradition, and their adult children have a particular way of looking at things. In exactly what direction it will shift depends on exactly where you are, and on what immigration policies will be in the future.

The point is that Europe is in flux. Better-off immigrants are now buying citizenship in many places, and some older ex-pats are re-immigrating to some countries where costs of living are lower. Tensions have been rising, and will continue to rise, between the old and the young, between the old and the new. That is of course nothing new, but what is new is that it is now happening in a place that has deeper official socialism than anywhere it has happened before, which IMO will amplify the expected effects.

Look not to Europe, unless speculating. Look everywhere else. Yes US companies derive significant revenues from Europe, but that's not the full story.

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Maserati wrote:

The DOW is no "sillier" than is any other index.

Wow. Just wow.

Blue chips rock!

R2D3 wrote:

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

Wow. Just wow.

Blue chips rock!

For all the flaws of the DOW's price weighted calculations, it does closely track the market cap weighted S&P 500 making it a simple, useful barometer of the market's health. Not sure why anyone would argue against this.

Let the truth loose wrote:

R2D3 wrote:

Blue chips rock!

For all the flaws of the DOW's price weighted calculations, it does closely track the market cap weighted S&P 500 making it a simple, useful barometer of the market's health. Not sure why anyone would argue against this.

basically true over the long long run.

if you randomly pick 30 stocks they will likely perform pretty close to the market, given enough waiting time. The Dow meets this function.

but if we are trying to measure what the market is doing today, this week, this month, this year...the Dow is not a good reflection of that short term performance.

Since this thread is mostly about the now...the sp500 or some better constructed index is a better fit for this thread.

Sally Vixxxxxens wrote:

Sally Vixxxxens wrote:

Prediction: the market will end the week higher than it started.

Recent days have seen reaction due to fears in the absence of any news regarding earnings, etc. This week will see reaction based on fundamentals. If you've been waiting to buy, do so now.

Missed by less than 1%. Oh well. Glad I took advantage of the buying opportunity.

In the end, it turns out I was off by about one trading day on average. Not too bad. As is often the case, it was a lot of hand wringing over nothing. Though it did present a nice buying opportunity. The small-cap and mid-cap etfs I bought last week are already up an average of 4.6%. :-)

Not too bad! Like I said, that dip was a good buying opportunity if your strategy is belief in the "long-term".

I myself considered buying things, but I didn't. If I had, I would probably be selling today!

QE extension is something I didn't want to see, but for which I am prepared. It is like a fog that obscures the real economic picture--it only takes the fog to clear in one place for the right person to see the right thing, and the lifeboats are deployed.

I don't know that I would want to be in for another round of QE. My timing call this past round was perfect, but that may have been luck as much as anything--next time may be different. I can still do well enough out of the markets, and if I stayed out another year I might beat them again, although this time, assuming the time period starts on Jan 1, I am not yet confident that I could out-perform them.

Hey Sally, what etf's did you buy?

DJIA is relevant because the thread started off DJIA, and daily swings are measured against the consistent DJIA baseline.

DJIA up around 150, just past midday.

global stocks up 6% in five trading days - 7 months avge. return in just a week!

the hedgies are crying into their IPA.

I have to file this one away as a story to tell.

Not sure why it's such a fantastic story, what am I missing? It's good, but not the stuff of stories, any more than was the preceding downturn.

You're a really emotional kind of guy, agip.

Maserati wrote:

Not sure why it's such a fantastic story, what am I missing? It's good, but not the stuff of stories, any more than was the preceding downturn.

You're a really emotional kind of guy, agip.

I think both are good stories. pretty dramatic stuff.

Anyway, I am the calmest cookie you'll ever see in real life - I channel all the fear and greed to lrc. Better than drinking.

Stocks have remained above their 200-day moving average for 475 trading days, the third- longest stretch in history.

agip wrote:

the hedgies are crying into their IPA.

= agip's Schadenfreude

lol agip, good for you.

Maybe both would be even better!

Maserati wrote:

Hey Sally, what etf's did you buy?

VB, VO, and VOT

I told you to sell yesterday.

DJIA down 154 today to 16,461

Kind of a nothing day.

Maserati wrote:

I told you to sell yesterday.

DJIA down 154 today to 16,461

Kind of a nothing day.

Yay for you!

That's what happens when your government drops arms supplies to enemy troops.

Well, those kinds of things happen. Having served myself, I can confirm that the military is far from perfect. Glad I wised up quickly and wasn't in for long.