I know I need a reminder on why we don't sell these dow markets. Here's how the last bear market ended, with the world in far, far, far, far more serious a crisis than now:
The bear market reversed course on March 9, 2009, as the DJIA rebounded more than 20% from its low to 7924.56 after a mere three weeks of gains.[8] After March 9, the S&P 500 was up 30% by mid May and over 60% by the end of the year.
Ok, don’t know about you guys, but I’m ready for that 3,000 point rally in the last half hour of trading
more reasons not to sell
The MSCI China index fell 8.6 per cent on the Sars outbreak but rebounded by more than 30 per cent in the three months after April 2003. Stocks in Hong Kong fell by a fifth, but also sprang back and made significant gains. Similarly, swine flu triggered a 4 per cent drop in the MSCI Mexico index, which then gained more than 25 per cent.
“The more equities fell initially, the more they subsequently rebounded,” wrote Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan in London. “These episodes did not lead to a prolonged period of selling and were a buying opportunity within weeks.”
agip wrote:
more reasons not to sell
The MSCI China index fell 8.6 per cent on the Sars outbreak but rebounded by more than 30 per cent in the three months after April 2003. Stocks in Hong Kong fell by a fifth, but also sprang back and made significant gains. Similarly, swine flu triggered a 4 per cent drop in the MSCI Mexico index, which then gained more than 25 per cent.
“The more equities fell initially, the more they subsequently rebounded,” wrote Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan in London. “These episodes did not lead to a prolonged period of selling and were a buying opportunity within weeks.”
How did SARS and swine flu outbreaks resolve? Was a vaccine developed or did the virus just go away?
Mostly it turned out there were just too many people in the world for those scary sars and swine flu numbers to mean a damn thing. Same is true now. The only real impact is from reaction to the fear itself.
I can’t do it any more. Sold. Not down as much as s&p, but still down. Will never play that game again.
Now I can start from scratch. Tomorrow might be ok but I think there is more seesaw pain ahead.
Maserati wrote:
I can’t do it any more. Sold. Not down as much as s&p, but still down. Will never play that game again.
Now I can start from scratch. Tomorrow might be ok but I think there is more seesaw pain ahead.
I don’t mind the seesaw. You can make money on the swings. It’s the slide I don’t like.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Bought DIS.
And XOM.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Bought DIS.
And XOM.
Hopefully XOM has bottomed out. That’s the one position I’ve taken a beating on.
Is a Boeing oversold? Down to 180s from mid/high 400s
What we need is Saudi and Russia getting together and saying they will try again to find an understanding on oil production levels. That would be a huge upday.
Anybody buying X? Down to 6 bucks, with rates super low and therefore future construction demand encouraging.
agip wrote:
Bib #1 wrote:
Tech heavy portfolios, you mean. Both the Dow and S&P500 are at 52 week lows
"balanced" means some division between stocks and bonds at around 50%. plus minus 20%.
Right now, my portfolio is about 50% stocks, and I am about 10 years away from retirement.
But if this trend continues, it will be well below 50%.
1. Should I "rebalance" my portfolio to maintain that 50% ratio?
2. Should I put a higher percentage of my contribution to stocks while the market is down?
American and european virus news will get worse. More stress everywhere. Not buying yet.
interesting that we'll get the recession that an inverted yield curve promised.
That indicator remains perfect.
We all should have sold when it inverted.
Although I dont' remember exactly when it did.
If 150MM Americans contract the illness, what’s stopping the other 200MM from doing the same? Face masks?
Seriously these experts need to stop making nonsensical statements.
August? But then it snapped back.
There were a lot of gains to be made from August onward
It is one of my big indicators, but just a guide when to pay close attention. It’s in pretty much everyone’s toolkit.
Odds are that the market could still lose 20-30% of its value the following months. We are heading toward a global recession, the stock market was overvalued, some state players are waring over oil and the virus will stall major economical powers for months.
People buying now are likely to lose money.
Abeneziel wrote:
Odds are that the market could still lose 20-30% of its value the following months. We are heading toward a global recession, the stock market was overvalued, some state players are waring over oil and the virus will stall major economical powers for months.
People buying now are likely to lose money.
More of the same coming....down and down some more.
Okay Bibi.
Don't you have some stealing or murdering to do?