Down goes the Dow

A break below 2,850 opens up the market for significantly greater losses.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Stanley Morgan wrote:

You already admitted you were wrong. Just put your tail between your legs and walk away.

Walked back in with my tail high! ?

Showing us your best side.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

A break below 2,850 opens up the market for significantly greater losses.

I agree. I am hoping that the daily seesaw action continues so that I can sell tomorrow, or in the best case today, if today is anywhere near even.

The news cycle, from the algo perspective, is still dominated by the virus.

the idiot wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:European markets down sharply today

I made some lucky decisions last couple of days, buying low and selling high. Completely out of character based on past behaviour. :-) Anyway, I'm much more into cash with this next dip on the way, fingers crossed...

When did you "sell high" in the past two weeks?

It better have been on Friday 2/21/20.

Maserati wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

A break below 2,850 opens up the market for significantly greater losses.

I agree. I am hoping that the daily seesaw action continues so that I can sell tomorrow, or in the best case today, if today is anywhere near even.

The news cycle, from the algo perspective, is still dominated by the virus.

This feels like motivated reasoning. Multiple 1000+ point swings up and down in a 7 day period and we're set for another today. If it's all bots (highly unlikely) then they're either the stupidest bots alive or jut trying to take advantage of crazy volatility and fear that's being generated.

One thing is absolutely true in my opinion : supply chains and productivity will take a substantial hit from this. Not catastrophic, but substantial. Companies know this as evidenced by the fact they've all announced as such.

Now for agip's hand-washing theory : interesting and probably true, perhaps trivial. It's on the same lines as reasoning that we only make vaccines for deadly viruses when we need them, and people will live longer by virtue of the vaccine. Something like that. Also, apply the same to businesses now. Hopefully this will wake some people up to the fact that robust and reliable supply chains are a top of the list item. More things along those lines, you guys fill in the details.

Haven't had coffee yet so I realize that was mostly incoherent rambling.

Not sure what you mean by motivated reasoning, but there is essentially no reasoning in it at all—it is just a hope. I have done no analysis whatsoever on these short-term moves, my interest has beenintermediate-term.

Yes the public is fatigued, but the algos never tire, and their virus diet continues. This may be likely to endure until the election, as bad virus news is bad news for Drumpf, and media have proven to have been squarely against him. Fox etc might try to put a hopeful and positive spin, but that voice is lost in the crowd.

The reasoning was the Biden bump, I just didn’t think it would be erased so quickly, nor did I think Monday’s rise would be erased so quickly.

This action is new to me, this reacrionary rapidity.

Reactionary.

Fat fingers!

I, agip, am springing into action.

I am going to even more aggressively cut duration in my clients' accounts.

Long term bonds are up something over 20% in a year. Intermediate 16% ish.

That is nutso city.

I'm going to take those gains and buy some short term stuff just to sit in and preserve wealth.

The risk is deflation - if prices fall then the long term bonds will continue to be hugely profitable. But short termers will still make some money.

also, let's note how portfolios are doing on the ground. Answer: fine.

After everyone made close to 20% last year,

this year any kind of a balanced portfolio is flat year to date. As of last night. Down a little as of the open today.

Totally normal to give back a few percent at some point, after such a big year last year.

Three year return for balanced accounts still in the 7-8% range. Per year. Pretty good.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maybe you’re wrong ?

https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1235198646733418507

Hilton just reinstated my Diamond status even though I had lost it for the year. They must be trying to drum up revenue.

agip wrote:

So my theory is that the CV crisis, due to all this extra handwashing, will actually serve to create a net *saving* of life rather than a net loss of life. Because other diseases will not be passed on and therefore will not do their killing thing.

This.

Flu kills directly or by causing pneumonia. Together, they kill about 100-200 Americans per day in flu season. Preventive steps to prevent Covid 19 will also prevent flu, which in turn prevents many cases of pneumonia.

The recent WHO report from China found that deaths and severe cases were overwhelmingly in the age 60+, smokers, and severe existing diseases cohorts. If you're young and healthy, or just healthy, your primary concern should be to avoid getting and carrying the illness to these high risk populations.

Here's my personal tip. In addition to a lot more handwashing, I keep a pump bottle of hand sanitizer in the cup holder in my car and use it every time I get in the car because I've touched doors, shopping carts, barbells, and all sorts of other surfaces.

Market is hugging the 200 day very tightly. I have no idea if this is bullish or bearish.

Or maybe we just bump along here until a vaccine comes out.

daily count of new cases has been almost stable for quite a few days now. It's up and down but in the same 1000-2000 new cases per day range.

In a true viral explosion...shouldn't that number be rising? Shouldn't the daily count of new cases be growing?

This thing just doesn't seem to be inevitably massive .

source

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1235198646733418507

747 are long haul aircraft. They are not used for short hops like Houston to Indy. This guy is an idiot.

Well, not looking so good today.

I am tempted to keep my money in and ride it out as the initially intended b&h, just having saved a bunch of points vs the markets.

Cycle lows seem to be reappearing.

Song of the Dow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Tpfa1qDb4s&feature=youtu.be&t=37

Is it just me or does today's market not feel as heavy as previous down 3% days? I have no dependable day to day feel for the markets but today just doesnt' feel as savage as the other down days.

I'm not predicting anything but we could rally into the close or tomorrow.

Vix hit 41 today - that's 'middle of the financial crisis' type fear levels.

I spent the day selling half of my long term bonds - took a very nice profit there.

Some of you might remember that a many months ago I sold some bonds and threw the money at my mortgage instead. Turns out that was a mistake. I would have done better to keep the money in bonds. So I was wrong then. But I do like having a tiny mortgage that will be gone this year.