jiggy wrote:
Obviously this is a bit of an oversimplification as there are also teams from other regions on the table at the same time, but this is why Carleton and St Thomas are above Platteville and Oshkosh.
Concise and Prudent analysis Jiggy! Whoop!
central region swag wrote:
Olaf's team average was 25:09 at regionals last year
It was 24:45 this year on a tougher course
They are pretty good
Also they scored 51 points at regionals last year, and 21 points this year. With Lehn out they may be missing a good #6, but the top 5 seem healthy and running better than ever. If they peak like they did last year and Jake Brown continues to improve, I think they'll win it again.
SpeedyGuy wrote:
All the teams down to Chicago in the Midwest are good enough to compete at nats.
No.
North Central will win by less than 5 points
Besides the fact that UWO and UWP not getting at large bids and teams like UST and Calvin did pisses me off, my question is how in the hell did they rationalize taking 4 at large teams from the Midwest region. Are you kidding me? One team wasn't even ranked and the team ranked 30th got beat by that team. The women's midwest region is very weak outside of the first 3 teams, and those teams (besides WashU) aren't that great. How you take those teams and not teams ranked 17th and 18th in the men's national poll is ridiculous.
I'm not blaming those teams, obviously they had no influence on this, I'm blaming the committee that seems to permanently have their heads up each other's asses. I'm almost convinced that the committee is just getting pissed that the Men's Midwest Region is so good every year that they just decided to screw them this year. This whole process needs to be revised and at the very least, the cap of 16 at-large bids needs to be removed and the criteria by which at-large teams are chosen needs to be revised so instances like when Platteville got beat at Jim Drews by Carleton b/c Platteville was missing a top guy are the reason a team doesn't get a bid.
None of these rude remarks are directed at the teams that I don't believe deserved the at-large bids, they are directed at the committee and the process. The teams and coaches of those teams are not responsible for this stupidity.
bogus wrote:
I'm not blaming those teams, obviously they had no influence on this, I'm blaming the committee that seems to permanently have their heads up each other's asses. I'm almost convinced that the committee is just getting pissed that the Men's Midwest Region is so good every year that they just decided to screw them this year. This whole process needs to be revised and at the very least, the cap of 16 at-large bids needs to be removed and the criteria by which at-large teams are chosen needs to be revised so instances like when Platteville got beat at Jim Drews by Carleton b/c Platteville was missing a top guy are the reason a team doesn't get a bid.
You want to remove the cap on the number of at large teams? Sweet, next year let's put 60 teams on the line and see how things turn out. Better yet, let's get rid of regionals altogether and just make nationals an open meet. If you want to run, just sign up!
No matter what the method is for choosing teams someone's going to be upset. I don't think the committee has any hidden agenda. Everyone knows what the criteria considered is and it's up to individual teams to decide how to play the game. If you want to make nationals, don't get 6th or 7th in your region or hold people out of late season meets. Platteville never did much of anything this season. They didn't beat anybody of note at Blugold or Drews, then they were 3rd at WIAC and 6th at regionals. Oshkosh ran well most of the fall and had a collection of wins from the regular season that would have put them into NCAAs with a strong regionals race, but they came up a little short.
I agree. The 32 team cap is legit and there shouldn't be any surprised faces about how the at large teams are selected. However, I do think that something should be done about the South/Southeast and the West regional. They have consistently sent only their automatic bids and even then, the teams have been consistently ranked in the bottom half. This year had the unranked before last week and now they are dead last in the rankings.
Maybe a super region of south, southeast and west and split up the midwest and mideast into 3 regions?
The problem with combining these regions is that they spread such a wide area. The west region isn't actually that bad considering it only had 17 teams run this year, compared to say the 47 mideast teams. Adding more would result in too much travel. Those teams already have a long plane ride every other year either up to Oregon or down to southern California. To make those teams fly to regionals in the southeast for example, then to nationals in the midwest would be pretty rough. Especially with the change in time zones.
The problem is also that taking even more bids away from the weak regions would effectively kill D3 cross country there. It's better for the sport at this level if there's always teams representing each region, even if it does mean that some deserving teams don't go to Nationals.
I think this whole issue divides down into two separate trains of thought, both of which deal with the concept of fairness. Is the national championship meet supposed to include the best possible teams? Or does it want equality across the regions. Under the old structure, with the caps- it made sense that the NCAA was attempting to try and have equality spread across the regions, hence why the south gets 2 auto bids despite in most years deserving 0. The midwest however, always tends to have 8-10 teams rated in the top 35 and if a team had a bad day at regionals. they would find themselves on the outside looking in. However, after the caps were taken off, I thought the purpose was to truly make nationals the "elite" field it was supposed to be in the first place, by allowing regions such as new england and midwest to get more teams who deserve to be there.
This year clearly calls into question the current system. From a completely unbiased viewpoint, both Plattville and Oshkosh should be in the national championship meet. On their good days, both could be top 15, if not top 10 on a great day, whereas teams like Calvin really haven't done anything the entire season to warrant an at-large bid.
Some pundits will say that it doesn't matter because Platville and Oskosh wouldn't win trophies anyways, so who cares? If that is the case, then who cares about the south getting any bids? They aren't going to win trophies either.
At the fundamental level, I believe the NCAA needs to clarify what the national championship meet is for- do they want the best teams there or do they want a regionally diverse field. And if they want the best teams there, they also need to develop a clear cut criteria to selecting teams as well, such as the system laid out by Division 1.
The Real issue wrote:
However, after the caps were taken off, I thought the purpose was to truly make nationals the "elite" field it was supposed to be in the first place, by allowing regions such as new england and midwest to get more teams who deserve to be there.
This year clearly calls into question the current system. From a completely unbiased viewpoint, both Plattville and Oshkosh should be in the national championship meet. On their good days, both could be top 15, if not top 10 on a great day, whereas teams like Calvin really haven't done anything the entire season to warrant an at-large bid.
A. The purpose of removing the caps was to make sure that deserving teams wouldn't be penalized for being in a difficult region.
B. UW-P did nothing all year to show they were deserving. Saying they could be top-15 is pretty meaningless anyway, as most of the teams in the field could be top-15.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
central region swag wrote:Olaf's team average was 25:09 at regionals last year
It was 24:45 this year on a tougher course
They are pretty good
Also they scored 51 points at regionals last year, and 21 points this year. With Lehn out they may be missing a good #6, but the top 5 seem healthy and running better than ever. If they peak like they did last year and Jake Brown continues to improve, I think they'll win it again.
Also, I wouldn't rule Calvin Lehn out for Saturday. He has had 7 weeks of training from what I've heard, you never know.
How bout we all stop bitching about what teams aren't going to be at nationals and start discussing the ones who are? We can speculate all day about where Oshkosh and Plateville could place at nationals, but since we will never find out, who cares!
The committee may not have a hidden agenda (except for coaches that get pissed that the Midwest is good every year), but if you don't think the NCAA has a "hidden agenda" you are living under a rock. The NCAA is one of the most corrupt agencies in this country. They have the "everyone should have a fair chance" mentality. It's a fu***ng joke. The Midwest should not have been punished because the committee seemed to have their heads up their ass. Just because teams finish 6th and 7th at their reigonal does not mean they don't deserve to be at nationals. In this case it means the regional was absolutely loaded. As it is every. single. year. Last year they took 6 teams from the Midwest and no one bitched. Deciding whether or not to take UWP and UWO, teams that are arguably better than the teams that took 6th and 7th last year in the Midwest region, should not have been a hard decision at all. I'm not placing all the blame on the committee. It's the influence of the NCAA on the committee that affected the outcome of this, and it's fu***ng bull*%#$.
jiggy wrote:
bogus wrote:I'm not blaming those teams, obviously they had no influence on this, I'm blaming the committee that seems to permanently have their heads up each other's asses. I'm almost convinced that the committee is just getting pissed that the Men's Midwest Region is so good every year that they just decided to screw them this year. This whole process needs to be revised and at the very least, the cap of 16 at-large bids needs to be removed and the criteria by which at-large teams are chosen needs to be revised so instances like when Platteville got beat at Jim Drews by Carleton b/c Platteville was missing a top guy are the reason a team doesn't get a bid.
You want to remove the cap on the number of at large teams? Sweet, next year let's put 60 teams on the line and see how things turn out. Better yet, let's get rid of regionals altogether and just make nationals an open meet. If you want to run, just sign up!
No matter what the method is for choosing teams someone's going to be upset. I don't think the committee has any hidden agenda. Everyone knows what the criteria considered is and it's up to individual teams to decide how to play the game. If you want to make nationals, don't get 6th or 7th in your region or hold people out of late season meets. Platteville never did much of anything this season. They didn't beat anybody of note at Blugold or Drews, then they were 3rd at WIAC and 6th at regionals. Oshkosh ran well most of the fall and had a collection of wins from the regular season that would have put them into NCAAs with a strong regionals race, but they came up a little short.
bogus wrote:
The committee may not have a hidden agenda (except for coaches that get pissed that the Midwest is good every year), but if you don't think the NCAA has a "hidden agenda" you are living under a rock. The NCAA is one of the most corrupt agencies in this country. They have the "everyone should have a fair chance" mentality. It's a fu***ng joke. The Midwest should not have been punished because the committee seemed to have their heads up their ass. Just because teams finish 6th and 7th at their reigonal does not mean they don't deserve to be at nationals. In this case it means the regional was absolutely loaded. As it is every. single. year. Last year they took 6 teams from the Midwest and no one bitched. Deciding whether or not to take UWP and UWO, teams that are arguably better than the teams that took 6th and 7th last year in the Midwest region, should not have been a hard decision at all. I'm not placing all the blame on the committee. It's the influence of the NCAA on the committee that affected the outcome of this, and it's fu***ng bull*%#$.
I'm not getting into a debate about whether or not the NCAA is corrupt or has a "hidden agenda". That's not relevant. What is Platteville's argument for deserving an at large bid? The only national qualifying team that they beat all season is Stout, who then beat them at regionals. You can't speculate on what would happen if X, Y, and Z were different; you have to take the results as they are.
AA Predictions
1. Padgett, Wash. U.
2. Wintheiser, St. Olaf
3. Aron Sebhat, NCC
4. Josh Thorson, Eau Claire
5. Kelleher, NCC
6. Cotton, Williams
7. Carpenter, Oshkosh
8. Ciesielski, La Crosse
9. Morrison, NCC
10. Horton, Central
11. Mugan, Eau Claire
12. Root, NCC
13. Brown, St. Olaf
14. Chelimo, Colby
15. Jenkins, Stout
16. LaMere, Platteville
17. Campbell, St. Olaf
18. Cross, Elmhurst
19. Marquardt, Haverford
20. Guzman, Occidental
21. Leitner, Eau Claire
22. Giannio, RIT
23. Hussein, Amherst
24. Loustalet, CMS
25. Marcantino, Carnegie Mellon
26. Mazaheri, Williams
27. Plank, NCC
28. Hale, Colby
29. Nolls, DeSales
30. Roza, Haverford
31. Horner, Carleton
32. Ruthier, La Crosse
33. Meyer, St. Olaf
34. Eastman, Colby
35. Kerska, La Crosse
Top 5 Teams
1. NCC
2. St. Olaf
3. Eau Claire
4. Colby
5. La Crosse
Let me know what you think of my predictions!
LOL at Colby's Hale and Eastman being AA. Both weren't even top 5 in the NE region.
marcantino runs for cortland not cmu...
Oopps sorry, my bad
watdafu.. wrote:
marcantino runs for cortland not cmu...
bogus wrote:
it's fu***ng bull*%#$.
Sorry you're at home, runner from Platteville or Oshkosh, but you're a whiner and you should run harder next year
Here's what I'm thinking for Saturday:
Horton wins the individual title over Wintheiser and Padgett. No logic behind this one, just a gut feeling.
Charlie Marquardt finishes top 10. He has won two races in a row over tough competition in less than ideal conditions, and broke (read: smashed) Bobby Over's course record last weekend. The last time a Haverford runner swept the Centennial Conference/Mideast Regional titles was in 2010 when Anders Hulleberg did it. Anders went on to win his third race in a row a week after taking home a regional crown. Don't sleep on this kid.
St. Olaf takes home the team title in a more convincing fashion than last year over a disgruntled NCC. Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Williams round out the top 5.
Haverford nets two All-Americans, but finishes 3rd in the team race among qualifiers from the Centennial Conference, and 4th among qualifiers from the Mideast Region.
Weston Butler shall rise again.