Redwood will absolutely dominate Litchfield. Everyone knows Litchfield's home course produces quick times
What about Augustana Twilight… where all the Redwood guys PR’d?
Who cares about a PR from a fast course in August, you're saying Litchfield will surprise folks from a PR on a fast course last week. Meanwhile Redwood is running through injuries and on harder courses, no way Litchfield beats them
What about Augustana Twilight… where all the Redwood guys PR’d?
Who cares about a PR from a fast course in August, you're saying Litchfield will surprise folks from a PR on a fast course last week. Meanwhile Redwood is running through injuries and on harder courses, no way Litchfield beats them
Okay did a deep dive into Litch vs Redwood. Here are Litch's fastest 5k's from (home course) to other courses. Their last 3 meets have all been on home course.
1. 16:03 (15:49 section time) 14 seconds
2. 16:18 (16:02) +16
3. 17:47 (17:17) +30
4. 18:12 (17:05) +67
5. 18:26 (17:22) +64
6. 19:06 (17:57) +69
On average 43 seconds faster per runner, than on other courses. So if we take 30 seconds off of Redwood's section 3A time, and put them into Section 5A, then you get;
16:10, 16:23, 16:25, 17:00, 17:05, 17:08, 17:15)
Redwood = 50
Litchfield = 67
Litchfields runner with the smallest margin between home course and another course is 14 seconds, although he did run quicker at conference than section. Anyway, if we subtract 14 seconds from Redwood's runners from Section 3A and put them into Section 5A we get;
Litchfield = 70
Redwood = 74
Redwood's top times without Augustana twilight meet
1. 16:31
2. 16:52
3. 16:53
4. 16:36 before injury, only 17:30 at sections, but was #4 for team, so let's say 17:15 since he beat #5 by 5 seconds
5. 17:15
6. 17:31
7. 17:32
Plug those times into Section 5A and we get;
Litch = 71
Redwood 77
If we subtract 14 seconds from Redwood's fastest times outside of Augustana and plug into Section 5A we get;
16:17, 16:38, 16:39, 17:01 (injured 16:36 season best), 17:01
Redwood = 55 (5,9,10,15,16)
Litch = 73 (1,2,18,25,27)
In the only head to head Redwoods #1 beat Litfields 1-2 punch by 37 seconds back on 9/11 in Spicer.
Looks like Litchfield is peaking at the right time, but they have no room for error as their #6 is a bit back and #7 is way back.
I believe Redwood will beat Litchfield is because;
1. Redwood's Clayton Salmon ran 16:36 at their first meet, before getting injured. Has climbed his way back from 18:45, to 17:43, and down to 17:30, and should take another jump at state.
2. Small chance Redwood gets 7 in before Litchfields #5.
3. Redwood's experience being a top A team, Litchfield hasn't been good since the 90's.
I can't believe I just spent that time analyzing these two schools. BUT I am impressed by both, especially Litchfield because they have been irrelevant for so many years. Both similar small town, one high school only for their xc teams.
Redwood has certainly been impressive the last few years, and they look even better for next year. Must have some good coaching down in the SW part of the state.
Thoughts and Reactions to Lake Conference Championhsips and new Coaches Rankings.
1) Fries course record in 14:50, with 2nd place being slightly less than a minute behind. Incredibily impressive given the previous record was held at 14:57 by Noah Breker, who went on to place 2nd at footlocker and 7th at NXN, I think this shows that Fries has the talent and ability to contend for a national title on both fronts and solidify himself as the greatest Minnesota High School XC Runner ever.
Not a bad take at all. Who would have predicted Charlie Vause to win NXN last year?
Blaine hasn’t had as many team state appearances as other programs competing for the title, and now they go from 14th last year to 1st by a lot this year. Crazy
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Are there any Somali runners in Minnesota? I know back when I was running they were doing pretty well
Ayoub Farah from Owatonna went from running in the 19s last year to running a 15:39 at section 1aaa this year and winning it, which got Owatonna to state for the first time since 2012
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