Armstronglivs wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
Same question:
What time would Cheptegei have had to run, for you to say "clean"?
I cannot imagine any performance you would not interpret as confirmation.
You miss the point - as you always do. The extremes of his performances are typically indicative of doping cycles. That's what happens to dopers. They have performance spikes and their lows are relative troughs. But your "data" wouldn't tell you that.
Of course the alternative is they are either injured - nope - or badly trained. And that isn't possible with "modern training".
Nope -- that's not the point.
The point is that the scenario makes no difference -- every scenario is suspicious for some reason, as long as races have winners. Cheptegei could run 7:18, or 7:55, or DNF, or DNS, and you would step forward and claim victory.
What you describe looks like what happens to every runner, when comparing off-season to end of season. Look up training cycles.
You describe these early season practice preparation races as extreme low performance "troughs", but in the 1500m, not his main event, he was right there, one step behind the winners, only losing to the sprint, and in the 3000m, he won by 8 seconds.