Webber wrote:
You obviously don't realize that there was a prediction contest in which many of us predicted 2:19.
There's a lot of things that Armstronlivs doesn't realize.
Does he really believe all his claims or is it just desperate attention seeking?
He is very consumed on discussing drug use.
Armstronglivs wrote:
You have also said you doubt she will get much faster but I would point out she has suddenly improved 6 minutes. What is to say she will not improve another 6 minutes - and run 2.14? After all - who predicted she would progress from 2.26 to 2.20 - in one race?
She didn't suddenly improve 6 minutes. She ran 2:22 twice. before. Do you even follow running?
Her progression was just gradual and pretty typical. She just ran faster than you would like.[/quote]
What I would like is irrelevant. So you don't answer my question: why would she not keep improving - even by another 6 minutes?
5 years ago she ran 2.48 - at age 32. She had been a serious runner prior to that for at least 15 years. Now, at 37, she has run 2.20 - 28 minutes faster. She ran 2.26 in 2018, and 2.22 in 2019, before her 2.20 run last year. Just "gradual and typical"? So why was this thread posted (and not by me) if the perception is that it is anything but "gradual and typical"? I could also ask you - do you even follow running?[/quote]
Because when people run a distance around ten times or so they tend to plateau. You would know that if you followed running.
Her progression which you finally researched after it was pointed out that you were barely aware of is very typical.
You now know she had cramps in her first one so you can throw that one out.
So around 2:30-2:20 is rather typical.
Which one was the performance where she started doping? Wherever that is you'll probably find the shoes being the factor..
There were many guys in the race who ran 5 minute PRs and there were guys who were 14 flat 5k guys in college that now somehow ran 2:12 in marathon debuts. I don't know why the Armstrong poster is so fixated on accusing Hall who is less likely to be doping than a 2nd tier guy flying under the radar.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Talent beats training wrote:
I was pretty decent but very lazy and didn't like running. I ran 4:45 in 8th grade gym class never having run before. I ran 4:12 in high school on 25 MPW. I ran sub 14 in college on 50 MPW. I was always good at faking small injuries to get out of long runs and hard workouts. I probably would be somebody that you would call out as a doper if I trained hard now. I wonder what happen if I ran 120 MPW and trained for the 10k or marathon.
From the sound of it, you had much more natural talent than Hall. If you trained hard in your 30's I wouldn't be surprised if you were quite successful. But 8th in the world - like her? I doubt it.
15th, not 8th.
Yo Sara ian wrote:
Which one was the performance where she started doping? Wherever that is you'll probably find the shoes being the factor..
Sara Hall is 37 and recently her times are so much better than when younger.
1. Marathon is a difficult race to seek consistency if not on PEDs (or cheater shoes).
1a . Some can find consistency, but it is not like racing the 1500m.
2 When all the little things come together, well-trained athletes can runrelatively fast marathons.
2a. That observation seems to be primarily what LRC threads are about.
2b. Little things include the diet was right so that the body felt good and the energy persisted throughout the runs and the race, no nagging injuries or cramps, and a pretty flat course in cool weather..
3. Sara Hall was a fast 1500m runner when young, so it makes sense she could do some fast marathons, especially when she was in her late 20s or early 30s.
3a. Ryan Hall was a good 1500m runner (3:43+) who ran fast marathons, so he can be a great source of counsel as to the transition from miler to marathoner, and as to diet and training issues that emerge, etc.
3b. Sara Hall was racing very well in the Olympic Trials marathon in Atlanta until she stopped. She wasn't back in the main pack floundering. She couldn't handle the very hilly course when running with other elites.
4 . The shoes make a difference. But how much?
4a. Remove the shoes from the equation and make a guess. A study listed a range for improvements based on the carbon-plate shoes.
4b. Maybe in Sara's case, the shoes are worth more than 2 minutes .
Is she on PEDs? It is possible, because she is peaking at 37. However, it is not likely.
Webber wrote:
He is very consumed on discussing drug use.
It's an absolute obsession with him. Hour after hour, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.
And with the most nonsensical arguments.
His latest obsession in trying to explain how EPO makes an athlete use more oxygen, without breathing more oxygen is rather like a certain person who can't accept defeat graciously.
how does that work? wrote:
Webber wrote:
He is very consumed on discussing drug use.
It's an absolute obsession with him. Hour after hour, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.
And with the most nonsensical arguments.
His latest obsession in trying to explain how EPO makes an athlete use more oxygen, without breathing more oxygen is rather like a certain person who can't accept defeat graciously.
Work on your thesis Jon. It will be far more helpful than plaintively chirping on random threads.
Yo Sara ian wrote:
how does that work? wrote:
It's an absolute obsession with him. Hour after hour, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.
And with the most nonsensical arguments.
His latest obsession in trying to explain how EPO makes an athlete use more oxygen, without breathing more oxygen is rather like a certain person who can't accept defeat graciously.
Work on your thesis Jon. It will be far more helpful than plaintively chirping on random threads.
Why don't you explain it if you are so confident in your opinions?
how does that work? wrote:
Yo Sara ian wrote:
Work on your thesis Jon. It will be far more helpful than plaintively chirping on random threads.
Why don't you explain it if you are so confident in your opinions?
Because I'm tired of doing so and having dumb people not being able to understand.
The sad thing is that it's so simple and yet you still can't grasp it after 20 years.
Chirp on though.
OriginalLurker wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
From the sound of it, you had much more natural talent than Hall. If you trained hard in your 30's I wouldn't be surprised if you were quite successful. But 8th in the world - like her? I doubt it.
15th, not 8th.
8th fastest in the world for 2020.
Rank Mark Competitor DOB Nat Pos Venue Date Results Score
1 2:17:16 Peres JEPCHIRCHIR 27 SEP 1993 KENKEN 1 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1262
2 2:17:45 Lonah Chemtai SALPETER 12 DEC 1988 ISRISR 1 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1257
3 2:18:35 Birhane DIBABA 11 SEP 1993 ETHETH 2 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1248
4 2:18:40 Joyciline JEPKOSGEI 08 DEC 1993 KENKEN 2 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1247
5 2:18:58 Brigid KOSGEI 20 FEB 1994 KENKEN 1 London (GBR) 04 OCT 2020 1244
6 2:19:38 Worknesh DEGEFA 28 OCT 1990 ETHETH 1 Dubai (UAE) 24 JAN 2020 1237
7 2:19:52 Helalia JOHANNES 13 AUG 1980 NAMNAM 3 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1235
8 2:19:54 Zeineba YIMER 17 JUN 1998 ETHETH 4 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
9 2:19:56 Degitu AZIMERAW 24 JAN 1999 ETHETH 5 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
9 2:19:56 Tigist GIRMA 1993 ETHETH 6 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
11 2:20:05 Ruti AGA 16 JAN 1994 ETHETH 7 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1232
12 2:20:11 Gutemi Shone IMANA 17 NOV 1991 ETHETH 2 Dubai (UAE) 24 JAN 2020 1231
13 2:20:29 Mao ICHIYAMA 29 MAY 1997 JPNJPN 1 Nagoya (JPN) 08 MAR 2020 1228
14 2:20:30 Sutume Asefa KEBEDE 11 DEC 1994 ETHETH 3 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1228
15 2:20:32 Sara HALL 15 APR 1983 USAUSA 1 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020 1228
Webber wrote:
There were many guys in the race who ran 5 minute PRs and there were guys who were 14 flat 5k guys in college that now somehow ran 2:12 in marathon debuts. I don't know why the Armstrong poster is so fixated on accusing Hall who is less likely to be doping than a 2nd tier guy flying under the radar.
So how many 2nd-tier guys do we notice flying under the radar? Isnt that what "flying under the radar "means - we don't see it? Maybe that's because they aren't doing anything very remarkable, that draws attention to them.
How do you also know that they are more likely to be doping than Hall, who is suddenly one of fastest women runners in the world in her late-30's?
Give the man a break. He doesn't know Meb from Geb and was unaware of Hall running 2:22 twice
Researching facts is not his strong suit.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Webber wrote:
There were many guys in the race who ran 5 minute PRs and there were guys who were 14 flat 5k guys in college that now somehow ran 2:12 in marathon debuts. I don't know why the Armstrong poster is so fixated on accusing Hall who is less likely to be doping than a 2nd tier guy flying under the radar.
So how many 2nd-tier guys do we notice flying under the radar? Isnt that what "flying under the radar "means - we don't see it? Maybe that's because they aren't doing anything very remarkable, that draws attention to them.
How do you also know that they are more likely to be doping than Hall, who is suddenly one of fastest women runners in the world in her late-30's?
Five years and ten races is sudden? No, Hall gradually improved her times .
OriginalLurker wrote:
Rank Mark Competitor DOB Nat Pos Venue Date Results Score
1 2:17:16 Peres JEPCHIRCHIR 27 SEP 1993 KENKEN 1 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1262
2 2:17:45 Lonah Chemtai SALPETER 12 DEC 1988 ISRISR 1 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1257
3 2:18:35 Birhane DIBABA 11 SEP 1993 ETHETH 2 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1248
4 2:18:40 Joyciline JEPKOSGEI 08 DEC 1993 KENKEN 2 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1247
5 2:18:58 Brigid KOSGEI 20 FEB 1994 KENKEN 1 London (GBR) 04 OCT 2020 1244
6 2:19:38 Worknesh DEGEFA 28 OCT 1990 ETHETH 1 Dubai (UAE) 24 JAN 2020 1237
7 2:19:52 Helalia JOHANNES 13 AUG 1980 NAMNAM 3 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1235
8 2:19:54 Zeineba YIMER 17 JUN 1998 ETHETH 4 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
9 2:19:56 Degitu AZIMERAW 24 JAN 1999 ETHETH 5 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
9 2:19:56 Tigist GIRMA 1993 ETHETH 6 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1234
11 2:20:05 Ruti AGA 16 JAN 1994 ETHETH 7 Valencia (ESP) 06 DEC 2020 1232
12 2:20:11 Gutemi Shone IMANA 17 NOV 1991 ETHETH 2 Dubai (UAE) 24 JAN 2020 1231
13 2:20:29 Mao ICHIYAMA 29 MAY 1997 JPNJPN 1 Nagoya (JPN) 08 MAR 2020 1228
14 2:20:30 Sutume Asefa KEBEDE 11 DEC 1994 ETHETH 3 Tokyo (JPN) 01 MAR 2020 1228
15 2:20:32 Sara HALL 15 APR 1983 USAUSA 1 Chandler, AZ (USA) 20 DEC 2020 1228
I got my figures off another site but I won't dispute your list. Interesting, though, that she was only a minute and a half slower last year than the present world record holder. At the rate she has been improving she could soon be faster than anyone currently listed above her. The gap is only 3 minutes. But it will be the "shoes" - as everyone here says - even though the other runners are also probably using them, too.
Yo Sara ian wrote:
Give the man a break. He doesn't know Meb from Geb and was unaware of Hall running 2:22 twice
Researching facts is not his strong suit.
While presenting a persuasive argument is not yours. All you have effectively said is - "perfectly normal, nothing to see here" - even though very few runners have made the kind of progression that she has so late in a lengthy career.
It escapes you that the point is not that she has run 2.22 twice but that she has run 2.20 and has made a dramatic improvement since her mid-30's. Any runner that so put themselves in the top ranks of their event would draw attention.
Clearly, you are ok if she continues to make the same kind of improvements that she has in the last couple of years. What's another 6 minutes or so? Nothing to see.
Is nobody else allowed to improve? What is the rate of improvement of those listed above her?
I hope you are considering the set-up of the project race for flattering times.
You still haven't answered the question regarding when you think she started doping.
Yo Sara ian wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
You have also said you doubt she will get much faster but I would point out she has suddenly improved 6 minutes. What is to say she will not improve another 6 minutes - and run 2.14? After all - who predicted she would progress from 2.26 to 2.20 - in one race?
She didn't suddenly improve 6 minutes. She ran 2:22 twice. before. Do you even follow running?
Her progression was just gradual and pretty typical. She just ran faster than you would like.
What I would like is irrelevant. So you don't answer my question: why would she not keep improving - even by another 6 minutes?
5 years ago she ran 2.48 - at age 32. She had been a serious runner prior to that for at least 15 years. Now, at 37, she has run 2.20 - 28 minutes faster. She ran 2.26 in 2018, and 2.22 in 2019, before her 2.20 run last year. Just "gradual and typical"? So why was this thread posted (and not by me) if the perception is that it is anything but "gradual and typical"? I could also ask you - do you even follow running?[/quote]
Because when people run a distance around ten times or so they tend to plateau. You would know that if you followed running.
Her progression which you finally researched after it was pointed out that you were barely aware of is very typical.
You now know she had cramps in her first one so you can throw that one out.
So around 2:30-2:20 is rather typical.
Which one was the performance where she started doping? Wherever that is you'll probably find the shoes being the factor..[/quote]
2.30-2.20 are not the same category of runner in the women's event. 2.20 is a championship winner; 2.30 is in the middle of the pack. Logically, you could argue that it's the same for 2.10-2.20 - but then you'd risk being ridiculous.
You keep sliding away from my earlier question. What would you make of it if she continues to improve at the rate she has?
As an American, I sure hope that she can improve over the next 2-3 years. I especially look forward to your reaction if she gets down to 2:15.