Maserati wrote:
Went to polling station this morning, the guy who runs the whole show is a friend. He said that turnout is crap, but about as he expected. My wife said that everyone is still on the ballot—Klobuchar, even Booker. I don’t profess to understand how it works.
You have to pay by a certain deadline to get your name on the ballot, usually months in advance. Any serious candidate with even a mildly funded campaign would make sure they're on the ballot at least up till Super Tuesday.
Futures up again, and rising a bit.
My poll yesterday was one reason I bought. People are not going to be held hostage by corona fear, and economic and social activity will normalize, notwithstanding the occasional prepper bringing forward some demand.
Hmmm...so do votes go to the candidates as voted, or to those who said candidates have endorsed?
agip wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
Of course it did. It hit America this week and people have died here. It is spreading all over the world
to understand the stock market you have to stop thinking that it reflects what is going on today.
the stock market tries to predict what will happen a year or three years out. and the market thinks, as of yesterday, that that time horizon got much better than it had thought.
Then why are we told the coronavirus is the reason the market tanked last week?
I will not pay attention to today, my buy yesterday was in prep for tonight/tomorrow. Lots of paperwork to do today, ugh. Sometimes I feel like selling everything I own and just sitting on a pile of physical cash, although that would come with its own problems.
Dow down 300, so far.
WTF did one last check and it rose 500 points in 5 seconds.
WTF
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cuts-benchmark-rate-by-quarter-point-in-rare-inter-meeting-move-due-to-coronavirus-2020-03-03?mod=mw_latestnewsMaserati wrote:
WTF did one last check and it rose 500 points in 5 seconds.
WTF
It should settle back down , this rate cut should already have been priced in.
Out.
Where’s the nah guy?
Shock and nah!
Maserati wrote:
Hmmm...so do votes go to the candidates as voted, or to those who said candidates have endorsed?
They go to the candidates, along with any delegates won. At this point "dropping out of the race" is symbolic as I assume Amy K and Mayor Pete have registered on state primary ballots through June (I think, there might be some other election laws at play though). Theoretically they could win but they're not campaigning anymore and urging their supporters to go elsewhere
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qgr1the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:. ...would be more interesting to use all the data points for VIX over 28 or something like that.
Great question. Since 1990 VIX has been above 28.4 and 41.0 for 10% and 2% of the time (755 and 152 of 7599 trading days).
VIX > 28.4 looks like a great buy signal. In the data examined the 1 and 2 year median change is 25% and 37%, almost as good as for VIX > 41 (27% and 43%, which are basically the same given uncertainty from the smaller data set). More interesting, change for six months or longer has always been positive, and almost always much better than the long term average (average for any day independent of the VIX).
Take CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index: VXO; do average monthly change in index ( not percentage change ). Calculate one sigma; gather all months one sigma or more and than calculate average price returns 1,3,6,9,12 and 24 months later. You can use Shiller's data for monthly average of S&P 500. Using VXO Index gives more data and captures 10/1987. You may not be so sanguine.
la gente ésta muy loca wrote:...do average monthly change in index ( not percentage change ). ...
I contend that absolute change is a meaningless measure.
the idiot wrote:I contend that absolute change is a meaningless measure.
Pushed "send" way too quickly...
Gain or loss in your portfolio is a function of relative (percent) change, not absolute change. The big drop in US markets Friday was the BIGGEST EVER in an absolute sense, but far from it in a percent sense.
When you say I would be less sanguine, can you share more without making me do more analysis? What have you distilled from the historic data?
the idiot wrote:
the idiot wrote:I contend that absolute change is a meaningless measure.
Pushed "send" way too quickly...
Gain or loss in your portfolio is a function of relative (percent) change, not absolute change. The big drop in US markets Friday was the BIGGEST EVER in an absolute sense, but far from it in a percent sense.
When you say I would be less sanguine, can you share more without making me do more analysis? What have you distilled from the historic data?
The VIX is already quoted in percentage points, so a 5 point increase in the VIX represents an expected increase of 5 percentage points of future volatility, irrespective of VIX going from 15 to 20 or 40 to 45. Therefore, using the change in the VIX level rather than the percentage change may make more sense.
Biggest news of the day is 10 Year Treasury trades at 0.999% Yield
Fed needs to cut rates some more! Yea turn U.S. banks into Euro Zone institutions. Looks like the Bullish narrative is unraveling and Central Bank mischief is being exposed.
la gente ésta muy loca wrote:The VIX is already quoted in percentage points, so a 5 point increase in the VIX represents an expected increase of 5 percentage points of future volatility, irrespective of VIX going from 15 to 20 or 40 to 45. Therefore, using the change in the VIX level rather than the percentage change may make more sense.
Ah I see what you mean. I was just using raw VIX values, and percent change on SP500
Easy come, easy go for yesterday’s winners! Not looking good today, on my small buy I will have lost maybe 500-600 Dow points. I think I will hold onto it, it is the same comp as my b&h was, so it is b&h with about 1600 points less loss than had I just held it.
Igy I really want to see it all unravel, but it won’t. At least not this time. Why should it? What you think are rules of the game are nothing other than human decisions, that can be changed at any time—and which will be, same as it ever was.
I should have relied upon my prediction of a rocky road for a while, and waited to buy a dip-within-the-dip. I did think it would be like this, only not quite so severe.