Down goes the Dow

Oh and Giles it’s very early, but...

...futures up.??

Sorry Giles, I conflated your comment with one I read on a trading board.

Futures slipping, but...

...Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke now all behind Biden.

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Maserati wrote:

Sorry Giles, I conflated your comment with one I read on a trading board.

Futures slipping, but...

...Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke now all behind Biden.

Under order of the bosses...the super donors

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Every central bank in the world said they'd take measures to reduce the impact and people are bullish on Biden winning now which is probably the best case for stocks (aside from Bloomberg) since everyone knows Bernie will start cracking down at least like .01% of the stupid sh!t Wall Street does and a second Trump term will end up like 2008.

But yeah I hear it's really easy to manipulate, what, 5 trillion dollars in 2 days?

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Going the other direction now. It will get worse once the realization hits Central Banks have nothing else to give. I suppose MMT, which would certainly smack of desperation.

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Giles the news on CV did not get worse. The market looks out months or years. It is looking at the rapid decline of the CV in china and saying 'hey the fear on this thing is overdone. It's going to follow classic viral curve and not be worse.'

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Going the other direction now. It will get worse once the realization hits Central Banks have nothing else to give. I suppose MMT, which would certainly smack of desperation.

it's true that the CV crisis is different than other shocks...in that supply chains are the problem. if you can't get people to go to work so you dont' have stuff to sell, lower interest rates aren't going to make much difference in economic activity.

on the other hand, lower interest rates *would* make building new factories to diversify supply chains would benefit from lower interest rates.

agip wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Giles the news on CV did not get worse. The market looks out months or years. It is looking at the rapid decline of the CV in china and saying 'hey the fear on this thing is overdone. It's going to follow classic viral curve and not be worse.'

Of course it did. It hit America this week and people have died here. It is spreading all over the world

Racket wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Every central bank in the world said they'd take measures to reduce the impact and people are bullish on Biden winning now which is probably the best case for stocks (aside from Bloomberg) since everyone knows Bernie will start cracking down at least like .01% of the stupid sh!t Wall Street does and a second Trump term will end up like 2008.

But yeah I hear it's really easy to manipulate, what, 5 trillion dollars in 2 days?

It is obviously being manipulated. Why the massive move up yesterday?

Giles Corey wrote:

agip wrote:

Giles the news on CV did not get worse. The market looks out months or years. It is looking at the rapid decline of the CV in china and saying 'hey the fear on this thing is overdone. It's going to follow classic viral curve and not be worse.'

Of course it did. It hit America this week and people have died here. It is spreading all over the world

to understand the stock market you have to stop thinking that it reflects what is going on today.

the stock market tries to predict what will happen a year or three years out. and the market thinks, as of yesterday, that that time horizon got much better than it had thought.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Yep.

The market totally tanked because of the coronavirus all last week.

This week the news about the virus gets worse, so the marker roars back.

But there is no manipulation going on here.

Going the other direction now. It will get worse once the realization hits Central Banks have nothing else to give. I suppose MMT, which would certainly smack of desperation.

Yup, and just like that futures are now flat. However, worse is relative—flat is worse than the 250 they were up; a flat day is worse than yesterday...heck every day in history has been worse than yesterday!

Don’t knock helicopter money, it’s coming eventually. Didn’t they just try some of it in HK?

No bank intervention? There must be nothing wrong! Bullish!!?

futures are actually down a percent or so...some strange fair value stuff after that crazy close yesterday.

ok never mind now they are flat. Maser lives 30 minutes ahead of me

agip wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Of course it did. It hit America this week and people have died here. It is spreading all over the world

to understand the stock market you have to stop thinking that it reflects what is going on today.

the stock market tries to predict what will happen a year or three years out. and the market thinks, as of yesterday, that that time horizon got much better than it had thought.

I agree that it tries to predict, but it also does more, and on shorter time-frames sometimes...but the general statement is I think exactly right, even the time-frame. I don’t think you can divine much longer-term info from daily moves unless it is due to a fed statement, a tax statement, etc. A huge intraday move can be due to just tactical shorts, or a resulting short squeeze.

As for yesterday, I think that virus news fatigue played a part. I do my own unscientific surveys and polls. Yesterday I asked maybe 200 people how they felt about virus news. Views were spread, but most people had turned the corner around fatigue, and into irritation! They don’t believe it’s that serious, they think the flu is worse, they have travel plans, they are sick of being inconvenienced, and they are sick of feeling terrorized by the news, etc.

Virus news is imo over, virus market effects priced in. On to the election, etc...

That's fair regarding the average Joe, but it's clearly going to affect Q1 profits for every major company, and those targets were supposed to be more or less priced in. Now they're gonna get missed by a lot.

Behold the miracle that is non-GAAP☀️

Went to polling station this morning, the guy who runs the whole show is a friend. He said that turnout is crap, but about as he expected. My wife said that everyone is still on the ballot—Klobuchar, even Booker. I don’t profess to understand how it works.