Down goes the Dow

the idiot wrote:

agip wrote:. ...would be more interesting to use all the data points for VIX over 28 or something like that.

Great question. Since 1990 VIX has been above 28.4 and 41.0 for 10% and 2% of the time (755 and 152 of 7599 trading days).

VIX > 28.4 looks like a great buy signal. In the data examined the 1 and 2 year median change is 25% and 37%, almost as good as for VIX > 41 (27% and 43%, which are basically the same given uncertainty from the smaller data set). More interesting, change for six months or longer has always been positive, and almost always much better than the long term average (average for any day independent of the VIX).

outstanding, thanks. You and Gente should work on stats together.

ignore that last post, ran the spreadsheet work too quickly, results for VIX > 28 are roughly similar to those for 41, with small differences here and there.

Hey idiot, you stealing my data analysis?!?!

Seriously though, agip’s was the buy. I would have bought it myself, but I was saving the cash for a purchase I was looking to make today...

...but, I pulled off a miracle and instead of buying something, sold something to the same guys from whom I was going to buy! It was a convoluted deal but I took equity in something and ended up the junior owner between 2 senior owners, who had competing interests. I was the swing, so I used that to negotiate a sale of a 2/3 majority in something that I had no idea I could sell. It worked out great because the price I would have paid for the purchase would have left a bad taste in the seller’s mouth.

BUT I missed out on the trade because I didn’t free up the cash. Turns out that I could have made the trade anyway. I did well, but the trade may have been equally satisfying.

Problem is what to do now? I am tempted to buy in at this level, but unsure if I should do so today or tomorrow. After lunch will run some numbers and watch the close.

Agip, excellent—you are like me, with the safety margins (or wimpyness) removed! Lol maybe I’ll load up on SPXL to flex a bit?

the idiot wrote:

agip wrote:. ...would be more interesting to use all the data points for VIX over 28 or something like that.

Great question. Since 1990 VIX has been above 28.4 and 41.0 for 10% and 2% of the time (755 and 152 of 7599 trading days).

VIX > 28.4 looks like a great buy signal. In the data examined the 1 and 2 year median change is 25% and 37%, almost as good as for VIX > 41 (27% and 43%, which are basically the same given uncertainty from the smaller data set). More interesting, change for six months or longer has always been positive, and almost always much better than the long term average (average for any day independent of the VIX).

Seems like high correlation here

Correction: I might have bought it myself

Btw had I made that buy, I would have sold it today.

Klobuchar drops out, and endorses...

...Biden.

Since I’m getting closer to being right (or at least further from being wrong), I think that a now-valid question is this: if Biden emerges as the nominee, does he stand a realistic chance vs Drumpf?

Seriously. I think that Biden might actually be better for markets than Drumpf. What I think this means for stocks is that as soon as it looks like Biden wins the D nomination, back up the truck and buy, to hold through the election. It’s a win-win scenario—either you win a bunch earlier, or you win a bunch later—or both.

I will be watching Super Tuesday very closely. That combined with virus news fatigue will buoy the markets 6-10 months from now, and it will be great.

Maserati wrote:

Klobuchar drops out, and endorses...

...Biden.

Since I’m getting closer to being right (or at least further from being wrong), I think that a now-valid question is this: if Biden emerges as the nominee, does he stand a realistic chance vs Drumpf?

Seriously. I think that Biden might actually be better for markets than Drumpf. What I think this means for stocks is that as soon as it looks like Biden wins the D nomination, back up the truck and buy, to hold through the election. It’s a win-win scenario—either you win a bunch earlier, or you win a bunch later—or both.

I will be watching Super Tuesday very closely. That combined with virus news fatigue will buoy the markets 6-10 months from now, and it will be great.

I do think biden would be good for stocks unless he actually buys into the bernie-lite platform he has been pitching.

Politics are going to be a mess until the election...most likely no Dem will have 50% of the delegates so there will be some horse trading and some very angry Dems.

betting odds are now basically 50/50 whether bernie or joe will get the nomination.

They have trump as a small favorite to be reelected.

I don’t think it matters on ehat Biden runs, he’s a politician and will say anything, then bend over for those who call the shots after he is elected. Unlike Bernie, he doesn’t actually believe any of what he is saying—heck, not only can he not even remember what he has said, he doesn’t understand it when he says it!

AGIP! Nailed it! I feel good for you, your success makes me happy. Try not to goo too hard on your next run, with the new enthusiasm and all!??. I would immediately go too hard and injure myself.

Bought. Still have lots to buy with, pending tomorrow...

Racket wrote:

comedyrelief wrote:

The stock market decline is one part coronavirus fears (similar to the wake of Sept. 11 when people stopped taking airplane flights) and one part fears of a Democrat presidential candidate fears. Part of the dramatic gains in the stock market under were due to the cut in corporate income taxes from 35% to 21%. Candidates like Sanders and Mayor Pete are vowing to return it to 35%. Speculators are betting that the coronavirus will knock Trump from office and usher in a reversal of Trump's tax cuts which will push us into recession.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's the most self-fulfilling of all prophecies I've ever heard

And it went back up today because Sanders took a drubbing in South Carolina.

heh. I know full well that I only know 2 or 3 things about investing. The rest of the time I just buy and hold and hope for the best.

the slapping upside the head of the shorts is nothing less than stunning. A thing to behold.

Last month they got beaten to a pulp by tesla.

This year they pay up for expensive puts and the freakin' Dow rises 2,022 points from is Friday lows to Monday highs. 8.2%. 8.2% in a day and a half. An annual return in a day in a half.

And the vix drops 18% just to make their puts even less valuable.

that VGT tech ETF is up 10.7% from its friday lows. Holy schmegoly.

A historic day.

Absolutely! But you know what, 2 or 3 things are good, as long as you know your limitations.

With my buy, I look forward to tomorrow, and to the mid-March Fed. I am sticking to my thesis that the markets are essentially divorced from reality—ie reality might shock them a bit initially, but they quickly recover their equilibrium.

My various doomsday scenarios were those scenarios that could overwhelm market control. Because I feel as agip does about the virus and its effects, I feel that this is proving to not be the devastating pandemic scenario that will overwhelm market management mechanisms.

OTOH if it is a real devastating pandemic and the market recovers through it, then the market will be unstoppable. Even nuclear war won’t matter. Sure the dollar might go to zero or CG to 100% or there might be wealth confiscation, but prices will compensate.

In the short term, I think that the recent precedent for higher prices will get us a return to those levels, at least. It wasn’t too comfortable when the route was pioneered, but now that we have been there before, it is familiar and more friendly territory.

Anybody who nailed Friday and today, I doff my cap to you. This will be an interesting stretch we are entering, it is living history! Don’t be passive, participate!!?

Maserati wrote:

Sure the dollar might go to zero or CG to 100% or there might be wealth confiscation, but prices will compensate.

Dollar ain't going nowhere Mas. Where are people gonna go, the EU (lol). Surely you don't think China (even bigger lol).

I am done with the market.

Will only risk a tiny amount of my liquid assets.

I have no faith in my ability to guess what the insiders are doing to manipulate the market.

Maserati wrote:

Klobuchar drops out, and endorses...

...Biden.

Since I’m getting closer to being right (or at least further from being wrong), I think that a now-valid question is this: if Biden emerges as the nominee, does he stand a realistic chance vs Drumpf?

Seriously. I think that Biden might actually be better for markets than Drumpf. What I think this means for stocks is that as soon as it looks like Biden wins the D nomination, back up the truck and buy, to hold through the election. It’s a win-win scenario—either you win a bunch earlier, or you win a bunch later—or both.

I will be watching Super Tuesday very closely. That combined with virus news fatigue will buoy the markets 6-10 months from now, and it will be great.

Just curious what the significance is of the posters here referring to President Trump as Drumpf? I mean other than making you feel even more self important (if that’s even possible... never seen such blowhards on here self congratulating themselves for how smart they are and how rich they are).

Giles Corey wrote:

I am done with the market.

Will only risk a tiny amount of my liquid assets.

I have no faith in my ability to guess what the insiders are doing to manipulate the market.

yes correct, stay out, that's the way to get rich.