Ohhh Booger, I eat boogers ***clinging*** to my Trump Delusion Syndrome...
Ohhh Booger, I eat boogers ***clinging*** to my Trump Delusion Syndrome...
Runningart2004 wrote:
I would like to know how you expect a president with a 40% or lower approval rating while the economy is booming to get reelected? I’m just trying to do the math. The economy is destined to stagnate or decline at some point, maybe before the 2020 elections. He’s playing a game of chicken with China. Now if he wins that game of chicken I could see a huge bump in his approval, but that doesn’t look likely at this point as China is digging in.
Alan
Trump can't win with 40% approval. But this time last year it was 35-38% approval. I predicted it would logically rise. I have taken plenty of heat for it on progressive sites but I expect the upward trend to continue...next year and the following year. No matter what Trump says or does, as long as Americans are comfortable with their daily lives they slowly become more accepting of the moron in charge.
Incumbents have surreal benefit of a doubt, if the party has been in power only one term. I cannot emphasize that enough. Hillary would not own patience and benefit of a doubt because it would be three consecutive Democratic terms. That's the landscape that sunk Bush 43 in 1992. But only Jimmy Carter has lost in the incumbent/one term scenario in more than a century.
It doesn't matter what happens in the midterm. I see both sides make that mistake all the time. Most recently, Republicans were absolutely crowing after the 2010 midterm avalanche. I'm sure it was going on here: "Tell me what is going to change by 2012?" They envision the same voters voting the same way as the midterm, and others joining in, evicting that incumbent in embarrassing landslide fashion. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. Entirely different landscape and priorities. People who don't show up in the midterm, or oppose the president's party, are now willing to give him a second term.
Trump's problem is one Alan touched on: right now he is being propped by the economy. His approval would undoubtedly be mid 30s or lower right now if the stock market hadn't climbed so dramatically since he has been in office, along with other economic variables like consumer confidence index. IMO, Trump's approval rating will rise and give him a chance via that situational boost in 2020, as long as the economy doesn't dive, and at the worst time. Minds are generally made up by summer of election year. As long as the economy is okay by summer 2020, Trump is okay.
But if he continues along the same personality trends, with divisiveness and negativity, and the economy dives during 2019 or early 2020, he will be defeated. Keep in mind that those midwestern states he won narrowly in 2016 did not feature an ideology shift. All reported high number of liberals and an exit poll gap between conservatives and liberals of =
Not sure why my post got cut off.
To continue with the point, all of the midwestern states (plus Pennsylvania) that Trump won narrowly in 2016 had a conservative/liberal gap of 9% or less in the exit poll. That is a definition of a dependably blue state. No state with a 9% gap or fewer had ever voted red previously, in all the decades I've charted this.
In short, it was a one-time fluke. No ideology change. Trump would have to fare much better in 2020 to carry those states along. Hillary and Democrats screwed up in inconceivable fashion by taking those midwestern states for granted.
There is zero chance Trump could lose the national popular vote by 2% or nearby and carry those states again. More likely, he would need to win the popular vote by 2% or thereabouts.
Racket wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) The markets continue to surge, yes, despite the hurricane in the White House. Is your integrity gone just due to dollar signs? You accept a criminal in the White House just because he happens to be President while the markets are going up? Tells me all I need to know about you.
If that's his yardstick, then his two favorite presidents must be Obama and FDR.
Yep. Clinton had a great stock market too. Reagan had Black Friday.
Awsi Dooger wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
I would like to know how you expect a president with a 40% or lower approval rating while the economy is booming to get reelected? I’m just trying to do the math. The economy is destined to stagnate or decline at some point, maybe before the 2020 elections. He’s playing a game of chicken with China. Now if he wins that game of chicken I could see a huge bump in his approval, but that doesn’t look likely at this point as China is digging in.
Alan
Trump can't win with 40% approval. But this time last year it was 35-38% approval. I predicted it would logically rise. I have taken plenty of heat for it on progressive sites but I expect the upward trend to continue...next year and the following year. No matter what Trump says or does, as long as Americans are comfortable with their daily lives they slowly become more accepting of the moron in charge.
Incumbents have surreal benefit of a doubt, if the party has been in power only one term. I cannot emphasize that enough. Hillary would not own patience and benefit of a doubt because it would be three consecutive Democratic terms. That's the landscape that sunk Bush 43 in 1992. But only Jimmy Carter has lost in the incumbent/one term scenario in more than a century.
It doesn't matter what happens in the midterm. I see both sides make that mistake all the time. Most recently, Republicans were absolutely crowing after the 2010 midterm avalanche. I'm sure it was going on here: "Tell me what is going to change by 2012?" They envision the same voters voting the same way as the midterm, and others joining in, evicting that incumbent in embarrassing landslide fashion. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. Entirely different landscape and priorities. People who don't show up in the midterm, or oppose the president's party, are now willing to give him a second term.
Trump's problem is one Alan touched on: right now he is being propped by the economy. His approval would undoubtedly be mid 30s or lower right now if the stock market hadn't climbed so dramatically since he has been in office, along with other economic variables like consumer confidence index. IMO, Trump's approval rating will rise and give him a chance via that situational boost in 2020, as long as the economy doesn't dive, and at the worst time. Minds are generally made up by summer of election year. As long as the economy is okay by summer 2020, Trump is okay.
But if he continues along the same personality trends, with divisiveness and negativity, and the economy dives during 2019 or early 2020, he will be defeated. Keep in mind that those midwestern states he won narrowly in 2016 did not feature an ideology shift. All reported high number of liberals and an exit poll gap between conservatives and liberals of =
Good post, but I would add that what sunk GHWB was the "read my lips, no new taxes" and then he raised taxes and dealt with a shallow recession that some said wasn't even a recession, so that depends on who you believe there. I agree with your general sentiment, however...except to say that Mueller will get Trump before the 2020 election.
Flagpole wrote:
Mueller will get Trump before the 2020 election.
But, Adam Schiff has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
And now, it's get him in 2020!!! wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Mueller will get Trump before the 2020 election.
But, Adam Schiff has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
The only person who quotes Schiff on these boards is jamin. … HEY, jamin! Why aren't you working for your employer, Microsoft, again? Why are you trolling all day long from work?
Not working, again, Jamin wrote:
And now, it's get him in 2020!!! wrote:
But, Adam Schiff has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
The only person who quotes Schiff on these boards is jamin. … HEY, jamin! Why aren't you working for your employer, Microsoft, again? Why are you trolling all day long from work?
Ohhhh, ok... the entire DNC has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
And now, it's get him in 2020!!! wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Mueller will get Trump before the 2020 election.
But, Adam Schiff has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
He has also said let Mueller complete his investigation. No spin or wish from you can make Trump innocent.
Flagpole wrote:
And now, it's get him in 2020!!! wrote:
But, Adam Schiff has been telling us for two years that they had all the evidence.
He has also said let Mueller complete his investigation. No spin or wish from you can make Trump innocent.
And trump hasn't fired Mueller... like your corporate media propagandist have been saying he would.
Pachanga!!!!!! wrote:
[quote]Viva la Trumpita!!! wrote:
dailywire com
The Daily Wire is an American, highly conservative, faux news and far right-wing opinion website founded by political commentator, and hardcore conservative, Ben Shapiro.
Worthless Republican Rag wrote:
Pachanga!!!!!! wrote:
[quote]Viva la Trumpita!!! wrote:
dailywire com
The Daily Wire is an American, highly conservative, faux news and far right-wing opinion website founded by political commentator, and hardcore conservative, Ben Shapiro.
And the video is real.
Delusion is a psychiatric disorder wrote:
Worthless Republican Rag wrote:
The Daily Wire is an American, highly conservative, faux news and far right-wing opinion website founded by political commentator, and hardcore conservative, Ben Shapiro.
And the video is FAKE.
^ My bad.
Posting a mimic name again. Your denial and delusion is fascinating. I truly enjoy it.
Pachanga!!!!!! wrote:
Viva la Trumpita!!! wrote:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/35999/watch-trump-has-room-rolling-hispanic-heritage-jacob-airey?utm_content=buffer175e2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=glennbeck
Fiesta de Trump! wrote:
Pachanga!!!!!! wrote:
Pure class! You're truly psychotic.
And now, it's get him in 2020!!! wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
He has also said let Mueller complete his investigation. No spin or wish from you can make Trump innocent.
And trump hasn't fired Mueller... like your corporate media propagandist have been saying he would.
Why do you attach me to what a network might have said? By the way, there are many panelists who have said it would be foolhardy for Trump to fire Mueller and that he would never do it. I for one, have never said if he would or not. I don't make predictions about what an illogical man might do.