sold my gold wrote:
Gold at all time highs. What does that mean? People bracing themselves for a stock market drop? Why invest in gold if stocks are going to continue to rise?
https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts/gold-price
Because I said stocks are going to dump and gold is going up. Look at the futures. You should listen to Igy.
Gruntz wrote:
The truth hurts, you immature emoji queen.
What truth is that, tough guy?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You should listen to Igy.
We have been, and doing just the opposite.
It has been working out well. And will continue to for a while now. No major drop "SOON" as he predicts.
Truth is the guy has a couple of loose screws as well as an obnoxious personality.
mister wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You should listen to Igy.
We have been, and doing just the opposite.
It has been working out well. And will continue to for a while now. No major drop "SOON" as he predicts.
You never listen, that t is why your portfolio sucks.
?
mister wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You should listen to Igy.
We have been, and doing just the opposite.
It has been working out well. And will continue to for a while now. No major drop "SOON" as he predicts.
He didn't just predict this? He's been saying it for 5 years. And it hasn't happened.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mister wrote:
We have been, and doing just the opposite.
It has been working out well. And will continue to for a while now. No major drop "SOON" as he predicts.
You never listen, that t is why your portfolio sucks.
?
Compared to your CD's? I don't think so!
Looks like some panic selling will be done at the open tomorrow- Probably I’ll buy some short term high yield bonds with the cash I’ve been raising by selling steadily. I’ll take a 5% coupon and a two year maturity. Doesn’t seem too risky and half the return of the stock market.
I’d expect gold to keep soaring...although maybe there will be a flood into dollars because of the virus...that would depress gold for now
.
nah wrote:
mister wrote:
We have been, and doing just the opposite.
It has been working out well. And will continue to for a while now. No major drop "SOON" as he predicts.
He didn't just predict this? He's been saying it for 5 years. And it hasn't happened.
That’s all wrong. Five years ago I said the next big move would be down, not up. It was, -12% and -15%. Yesterday I said stocks were a bad bet against gold. Today I am right. So not nah, say YEA!
Do you hear me, YEA!
?
A solid history lesson here: markets have never been pure and working solely off ‘fundamentals.’ They are always manipulated and hacked.
Yet over 5 year periods they are up 90% of the time. So the q is why we should care about imperfections in today’s markets and say they are too manipulated to invest in?
“Markets are constantly evolving so it’s impossible to gauge the exact impact these variables have had on prices. There are no counterfactuals. But people who assume this time is somehow distinctly different than the past need to read a history book or two.
When were the markets ever not somehow broken, rigged, manipulated or untethered from fundamentals? When was the glorious period where markets were completely free and devoid of intervention from the forces of either governments, central banks or investors who overstepped the bounds of fair play?”
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/02/market-have-always-been-rigged-broken-manipulated/
Back stateside awaiting open. Good chance I will sell b&h today. Like I told you about the big guy flying commercial, I am telling you now that everything is a serious mess. I will give no specifics, but watch for banks that fund ongoing business operations that are exposed.
It’s such a mess that I had to come back. Way back I opined repeatedly about the very few things that could bring down the markets, one of which was pandemic, along with sabotage, electrical infrastructure failure, etc.. Well, it looks like pandemic. It is everywhere, and nobody is doing anything. Get ready, you will get it.
This just has to run its course. There will be many, many disruptions. The circuit breakers and pumping are active, make use of them while it’s still worthwhile. We have a grace period, use it to stock up on crap you need.
I will be very busy today, what a PITA. Will let you know if I sold my remaining 3.5%. I am beginning the process of shutting down an office, withdrawing early. It just feels like the time is right.
Beware physical gold. Fakes are flooding everywhere at the moment. Real testing of big pieces is almost impossible.
A great contribution of modern medicine was the understanding of the causes and nature of disease. MUCH of the world has no idea, even today, and that ignorance is what is spreading the virus. People not going to work is a difficult thing to PR-over. Disbelief and distrust are spreading, and IMO critically undermining the confidence required to continue the inflated markets scam.
It’s not that stocks are a bad thing to own, it is that they are perceived as relatively uncontrollable. Even when someone sells, there is the idea of “cash” as being controllable—like you can walk down to the bank and demand it, and walk home with it. Same for metals. In crisis, people need to feel as though they have some control, and stocks will relatively sink. They don’t want somebody to have their back, they want a 360-degree FOV, or as close as they can get.
Bottom line, this is all a real drag. We will emerge, and maybe some dead wood activities will be cleared out, and some bloated ones trimmed. Time will tell. In 100% seriousness, I am considering an extended wilderness stay if things get too rocky. I can afford to sit this out in cash, RE, and some metal equivalents.
Is the whole virus thing overblown? IMO absolutely, from my personal perspective, and from a health perspective—but business is fragile at this point, because of nothing but good times for 10 years. Markets are more robust (managed), but rely on confidence that is rapidly becoming more difficult or impossible to maintain.
well it always can be different this time but since no past epidemic has done any serious life-changing damage to the US stock market...I'm not going to be absconding to the mountains yet.
Seriously...the market was up after every one of these epidemic scares. 12m later anyway.
I mean each one feels 'different this time' yet it's always the same thing/
"it's always the same thing"......until it's not. Then what?
Therein lies the difference between the stupid and the wise. The stupid says the past is likely to repeat. The wise says I'm not counting on it and prepares accordingly.
The paranoid will be wrong 100 times, yet survive. The "don't worry" crowd will be wrong once, and pay dearly.
agip wrote:
well it always can be different this time but since no past epidemic has done any serious life-changing damage to the US stock market...I'm not going to be absconding to the mountains yet.
Seriously...the market was up after every one of these epidemic scares. 12m later anyway.
I mean each one feels 'different this time' yet it's always the same thing/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-during-past-viral-outbreaks-as-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-2020-01-22
Futures not looking so hot right now
Maserati wrote:
Back stateside awaiting open. Good chance I will sell b&h today. Like I told you about the big guy flying commercial, I am telling you now that everything is a serious mess. I will give no specifics, but watch for banks that fund ongoing business operations that are exposed.
It’s such a mess that I had to come back. Way back I opined repeatedly about the very few things that could bring down the markets, one of which was pandemic, along with sabotage, electrical infrastructure failure, etc.. Well, it looks like pandemic. It is everywhere, and nobody is doing anything. Get ready, you will get it.
This just has to run its course. There will be many, many disruptions. The circuit breakers and pumping are active, make use of them while it’s still worthwhile. We have a grace period, use it to stock up on crap you need.
I will be very busy today, what a PITA. Will let you know if I sold my remaining 3.5%. I am beginning the process of shutting down an office, withdrawing early. It just feels like the time is right.
Beware physical gold. Fakes are flooding everywhere at the moment. Real testing of big pieces is almost impossible.
A great contribution of modern medicine was the understanding of the causes and nature of disease. MUCH of the world has no idea, even today, and that ignorance is what is spreading the virus. People not going to work is a difficult thing to PR-over. Disbelief and distrust are spreading, and IMO critically undermining the confidence required to continue the inflated markets scam.
It’s not that stocks are a bad thing to own, it is that they are perceived as relatively uncontrollable. Even when someone sells, there is the idea of “cash” as being controllable—like you can walk down to the bank and demand it, and walk home with it. Same for metals. In crisis, people need to feel as though they have some control, and stocks will relatively sink. They don’t want somebody to have their back, they want a 360-degree FOV, or as close as they can get.
Bottom line, this is all a real drag. We will emerge, and maybe some dead wood activities will be cleared out, and some bloated ones trimmed. Time will tell. In 100% seriousness, I am considering an extended wilderness stay if things get too rocky. I can afford to sit this out in cash, RE, and some metal equivalents.
Is the whole virus thing overblown? IMO absolutely, from my personal perspective, and from a health perspective—but business is fragile at this point, because of nothing but good times for 10 years. Markets are more robust (managed), but rely on confidence that is rapidly becoming more difficult or impossible to maintain.
Probably just the market pricing in a Bernie Sanders nomination win.
Big money investors were banking on Trump being around for 1 term and going easy on them, then someone like Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg to step up and steady the ship while its at the top. Instead, they're looking at the possibility of a second Trump term or Bernie Sanders. Neither are particularly good for the economy long term
fartlekpa wrote:
"it's always the same thing"......until it's not. Then what?
Therein lies the difference between the stupid and the wise. The stupid says the past is likely to repeat. The wise says I'm not counting on it and prepares accordingly.
The paranoid will be wrong 100 times, yet survive. The "don't worry" crowd will be wrong once, and pay dearly.
how can anyone be a successful investor in the stock market without taking look at history and understanding that all things pass? Serious question. Someone who didn't understand that would be exactly that kind of short term holder panic seller who makes normal people get their 3% return or whatever they get.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
well it always can be different this time but since no past epidemic has done any serious life-changing damage to the US stock market...I'm not going to be absconding to the mountains yet.
Seriously...the market was up after every one of these epidemic scares. 12m later anyway.
I mean each one feels 'different this time' yet it's always the same thing/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-during-past-viral-outbreaks-as-chinas-coronavirus-spreads-2020-01-22Futures not looking so hot right now
yeah we're all the way back to where we were...20 days ago. Wiped out... three weeks of returns.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Back stateside awaiting open. Good chance I will sell b&h today. Like I told you about the big guy flying commercial, I am telling you now that everything is a serious mess. I will give no specifics, but watch for banks that fund ongoing business operations that are exposed.
It’s such a mess that I had to come back. Way back I opined repeatedly about the very few things that could bring down the markets, one of which was pandemic, along with sabotage, electrical infrastructure failure, etc.. Well, it looks like pandemic. It is everywhere, and nobody is doing anything. Get ready, you will get it.
This just has to run its course. There will be many, many disruptions. The circuit breakers and pumping are active, make use of them while it’s still worthwhile. We have a grace period, use it to stock up on crap you need.
I will be very busy today, what a PITA. Will let you know if I sold my remaining 3.5%. I am beginning the process of shutting down an office, withdrawing early. It just feels like the time is right.
Beware physical gold. Fakes are flooding everywhere at the moment. Real testing of big pieces is almost impossible.
A great contribution of modern medicine was the understanding of the causes and nature of disease. MUCH of the world has no idea, even today, and that ignorance is what is spreading the virus. People not going to work is a difficult thing to PR-over. Disbelief and distrust are spreading, and IMO critically undermining the confidence required to continue the inflated markets scam.
It’s not that stocks are a bad thing to own, it is that they are perceived as relatively uncontrollable. Even when someone sells, there is the idea of “cash” as being controllable—like you can walk down to the bank and demand it, and walk home with it. Same for metals. In crisis, people need to feel as though they have some control, and stocks will relatively sink. They don’t want somebody to have their back, they want a 360-degree FOV, or as close as they can get.
Bottom line, this is all a real drag. We will emerge, and maybe some dead wood activities will be cleared out, and some bloated ones trimmed. Time will tell. In 100% seriousness, I am considering an extended wilderness stay if things get too rocky. I can afford to sit this out in cash, RE, and some metal equivalents.
Is the whole virus thing overblown? IMO absolutely, from my personal perspective, and from a health perspective—but business is fragile at this point, because of nothing but good times for 10 years. Markets are more robust (managed), but rely on confidence that is rapidly becoming more difficult or impossible to maintain.
Probably just the market pricing in a Bernie Sanders nomination win.
Big money investors were banking on Trump being around for 1 term and going easy on them, then someone like Joe Biden or Michael Bloomberg to step up and steady the ship while its at the top. Instead, they're looking at the possibility of a second Trump term or Bernie Sanders. Neither are particularly good for the economy long term
Actually I take this back. It's a cute story but now that the virus is in Italy (we all know how good they are at doing things and not being lazy cigarette smoking bums) all of Europe is doomed.
Yes agip you are right, it has eventually rebounded—but I don’t need to be in for that part of the cycle.
That 3 weeks is key—that’s when I left. I vowed to come back when the market returned to around where I left.
I might not sell, there is the second Trump effect. Even if BS is the candidate he won’t win because moneyed interests fear his policies. 4 more years of prep is critical, and DT will enable that.
But as an internet acquaintance who has gone back-and-forth with you for a while, I say to you as a bud, be careful with this. I am serious. Watch investors and especially lenders. This will be really tough to paper over. If the coming summer kicks it back and DT election excitement builds, then I will be back in for a while. FED cuts will be only a stabilizing drop in the bucket now.
Loans are getting called. And not paid. And re-negotiated. Beware. I hope to sit out the excitement. I know the point of a b&h is h, but it’s against my nature. I already sold my other holdings at the level that might be achieved today.
It's not about panic. It's about understanding that what has happened before will not necessarily happen again. Meaning--we may not "come back"....or maybe a ton of damage occurs before we are able to "come back". It sounds basic but it is not. You REALLY have to ignore a ton of noise.
I'm incredulous at the number of people who look at what's happening and see it as a sign that markets are strong b/c they haven't (yet) been impacted by what is clearly a global pandemic. To me that's a sign of trouble. It was a sign 6 weeks ago so I consider the fact that we're here now talking about it means we are EXTREMELY lucky.
I hope I'm wrong....but I'm not betting on it. My 401k has been 100% cash for 2 weeks and will likely stay that way for a while.