Three of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 18, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.32%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a gain of 2.99% and in third is France's CAC40 with a gain of 1.32%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of -2.34%.
agip wrote:
all time highs again today.
This market is making me feel old. I recognize that old investors tend to be worse investors and that is hitting me hard. Guess I'm getting old.
Massive, endless gigantic deficits, high valuations, negative nominal and real interest rates, viruses, horrible politics in the US, lies being propagated, fed juicing, profit slowdown...yet the market climbs to new highs again and again.
I'm buying something like $1000 of gold every week and selling stocks pretty steadily.
12 month returns:
Gold in USD: +21%
Total US Stock market: +22%
Total World Stock Market: +17%
So for the last year owning gold has not cost anything in opportunity cost...and vs. a global portfolio it has been the right decision.
Cherry picked dates but still. Gold seems to be saying that something is happening. Virus? Deficits? Politics? Predicting inflation's return?
Maserati wrote:
No, they don’t—eg. hedonic adjustments.
Quinn is comparing nominal GDPs, not real, hedonic adjustments do not apply.. By IP I mean the BEA's new investment category, intellectual property products established in 2013. It is comprised of expenditures on R&D ; for literary, artistic and entertainment originals; and software. Software category was established in 1999. Previously spending on these were counted as intermediate inputs in the production of other goods and services. The first two back to 1929, software back to 1959.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
all time highs again today.
This market is making me feel old. I recognize that old investors tend to be worse investors and that is hitting me hard. Guess I'm getting old.
Massive, endless gigantic deficits, high valuations, negative nominal and real interest rates, viruses, horrible politics in the US, lies being propagated, fed juicing, profit slowdown...yet the market climbs to new highs again and again.
I'm buying something like $1000 of gold every week and selling stocks pretty steadily.
12 month returns:
Gold in USD: +21%
Total US Stock market: +22%
Total World Stock Market: +17%
So for the last year owning gold has not cost anything in opportunity cost...and vs. a global portfolio it has been the right decision.
Cherry picked dates but still. Gold seems to be saying that something is happening. Virus? Deficits? Politics? Predicting inflation's return?
Like I said, if you want anything even remotely resembling a return on investment then you have US equities first and metals second. Everything else is a literal dumpster fire right now, those are just the two smallest ones at the moment
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“How many of today’s historically challenged iGadget addicted morons know GDP grew by 63% between 1933 and 1937, in the midst of the Great Depression? Meanwhile, GDP has only grown by 48% since the 2009 low, over a ten-year period. And this has only been achieved through a 100% increase in the national debt, a 450% increase in the Federal Reserve balance sheet, a decade of zero interest rates, and trillion-dollar annual deficits.”
—Jim Quinn
1933 was the bottom of an economic collapse and 1937 was the top of a rebound.
This cherry picking tells us hardly anything.
Nominal GDP did not get back to 1929 until 1940. Federal debt increased from $16.931 billion in 6/1929 to $42.968 billion in 6/1940.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=qbBmFederal net outlays went from $3.127 Billion in 1929 to $9.468 Billion in 1940.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm46EE.jpg?itok=fCwViwuWPortia wrote:
Three of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through February 18, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.32%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a gain of 2.99% and in third is France's CAC40 with a gain of 1.32%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of -2.34%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/02/18/world-markets-update?bt_ee=Fpb%2BFJzJCjbt9oKKd52mDanKJQTmyDxBSzZu4%2FlP0H3viG%2FrBramIviiSYkwRc9S&bt_ts=1582118616326
la gente ésta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
1933 was the bottom of an economic collapse and 1937 was the top of a rebound.
This cherry picking tells us hardly anything.
Nominal GDP did not get back to 1929 until 1940. Federal debt increased from $16.931 billion in 6/1929 to $42.968 billion in 6/1940.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=qbBmFederal net outlays went from $3.127 Billion in 1929 to $9.468 Billion in 1940.
yeah, I'm just complaining about cherry picking dates - you can see the 1933 crater and the 1937 peak pretty plainly there.
I'm reading a bio of FDR right now...1937 was a bloody nightmare...market collapsed, millions of jobs lost, and it was a total mystery why. 1933-1937 was a decent upward trajectory.
FDR's critics thought it was because companies thought FDR would complete the transition to socialism so they stopped investing.
The cycles used to be so much sharper in the past and mysterious.
agip wrote:
yeah, I'm just complaining about cherry picking dates - you can see the 1933 crater and the 1937 peak pretty plainly there.
I'm reading a bio of FDR right now...1937 was a bloody nightmare...market collapsed, millions of jobs lost, and it was a total mystery why. 1933-1937 was a decent upward trajectory.
FDR's critics thought it was because companies thought FDR would complete the transition to socialism so they stopped investing.
The cycles used to be so much sharper in the past and mysterious.
Try reading this,
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6c36/31d0a5be755f1e945a232b4afce3bfd2831f.pdf?_ga=2.172371043.114214287.1582130081-869145851.1580581090agip wrote:
all time highs again today.
This market is making me feel old. I recognize that old investors tend to be worse investors and that is hitting me hard. Guess I'm getting old.
Massive, endless gigantic deficits, high valuations, negative nominal and real interest rates, viruses, horrible politics in the US, lies being propagated, fed juicing, profit slowdown...yet the market climbs to new highs again and again.
I'm buying something like $1000 of gold every week and selling stocks pretty steadily.
Holy shlt is this the same agip who has been posting here for years???
If so, boy have you changed your tune. I, for one, think it’s great! But agip, there is tradeable/investable information in the pile. It’s different than what you’re used to, and can be unpalatable at first—but it’s there.
Welcome.
Genté, will get back later
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“A 30% correction gets much more serious. A decline of this magnitude takes you back to the beginning of 2017. While losing just 3-years of growth may not seem that bad, assuming you need 6% a year to reach your retirement goal, you will need almost 9-years to recover. (Remember, it takes 42.9% to recover the 30% loss, plus you have to make up the 6% annual gains you needed, but didn’t accrue, during each year of recovering the previous loss.)”
?
Is pointing out these things that haven't happen suppose to support your position?
Why not point out Market as of Jan 1, 2011 vs Market as of today. No cherry picked dates in between.
What do expect from the greatest asset bubble EVER? We need dopes like you to create the REAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY!
?
You missed the real buying opportunity. No wonder you are so miserable.
Stater of the Obvious wrote:
You missed the real buying opportunity. No wonder you are so miserable.
?
agip wrote:
all time highs again today.
This market is making me feel old. I recognize that old investors tend to be worse investors and that is hitting me hard. Guess I'm getting old.
Massive, endless gigantic deficits, high valuations, negative nominal and real interest rates, viruses, horrible politics in the US, lies being propagated, fed juicing, profit slowdown...yet the market climbs to new highs again and again.
I'm buying something like $1000 of gold every week and selling stocks pretty steadily.
I hear ya, My strategy was more to sell only on the downside, if one should start to materialize. Well, not much of one has materialized at all, so still holding onto virtually everything, and that is virtually all tech. Moderately leveraged.
Been buying Nvidia since Monday, which has been doing well, which adds some to the chip sector i have already with the Advanced Micro i've had for a couple of months now.
Happy trading.
seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
all time highs again today.
This market is making me feel old. I recognize that old investors tend to be worse investors and that is hitting me hard. Guess I'm getting old.
Massive, endless gigantic deficits, high valuations, negative nominal and real interest rates, viruses, horrible politics in the US, lies being propagated, fed juicing, profit slowdown...yet the market climbs to new highs again and again.
I'm buying something like $1000 of gold every week and selling stocks pretty steadily.
I hear ya, My strategy was more to sell only on the downside, if one should start to materialize. Well, not much of one has materialized at all, so still holding onto virtually everything, and that is virtually all tech. Moderately leveraged.
Been buying Nvidia since Monday, which has been doing well, which adds some to the chip sector i have already with the Advanced Micro i've had for a couple of months now.
Happy trading.
tech is part of my freakout. When it's so easy, when all you have to do is buy tech and close your eyes...that's a tinderbox. That's a snowbridge about to collapse.
tech is up 46% in a year
11% year to date
that ain't healthy - that's dumb money chasing performance.
but of course I have a lot of tech.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I hear ya, My strategy was more to sell only on the downside, if one should start to materialize. Well, not much of one has materialized at all, so still holding onto virtually everything, and that is virtually all tech. Moderately leveraged.
Been buying Nvidia since Monday, which has been doing well, which adds some to the chip sector i have already with the Advanced Micro i've had for a couple of months now.
Happy trading.
tech is part of my freakout. When it's so easy, when all you have to do is buy tech and close your eyes...that's a tinderbox. That's a snowbridge about to collapse.
tech is up 46% in a year
11% year to date
that ain't healthy - that's dumb money chasing performance.
but of course I have a lot of tech.
I don;t know, maybe a little consolidating is in order. BUt it sure has been a good long term bet. Who know's? Threats of regulation do little to rattle them, the promise of 5G upgrading. I don't even think emergence of Sanders or Warren would do much to knock it off course.
https://i0.wp.com/northmantrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/NDXM-6.png?ssl=1seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
tech is part of my freakout. When it's so easy, when all you have to do is buy tech and close your eyes...that's a tinderbox. That's a snowbridge about to collapse.
tech is up 46% in a year
11% year to date
that ain't healthy - that's dumb money chasing performance.
but of course I have a lot of tech.
I don;t know, maybe a little consolidating is in order. BUt it sure has been a good long term bet. Who know's? Threats of regulation do little to rattle them, the promise of 5G upgrading. I don't even think emergence of Sanders or Warren would do much to knock it off course.
