Down goes the Dow

Some good economic news - the deficit is now below its 40 year average in terms of percentage of GDP. Looks like we'll have a surplus in 2016 or 2017 unless there is another recession:

With the government’s budget year having concluded at the end of September, the Congressional Budget Office now estimates that the deficit for 2014 was 2.8 percent of G.D.P., down from 4.1 percent last year. The deficit is now smaller than its average over the past 40 years of 3.1 percent.

The size and speed of the decline has come as a surprise to many forecasters. As recently as February 2013, this year’s deficit was expected to be 3.7 percent of G.D.P. The deficit has declined in each of the past five years, and is now markedly smaller than the deficit (9.8 percent) registered in the 2008-09 fiscal year.

As the economic recovery continues, the deficit is expected to narrow even further next year. Based on current projections, the average deficit through President Obama’s second term will be smaller than it was through President Reagan’s second term.

These latest deficit numbers arrive while voters claim to be highly engaged by the federal budget. A recent Gallup poll shows that 73 percent of registered voters say that the federal budget deficit is either “very important” or “extremely important” to their vote for in next month’s midterm elections, and the share is even higher among Republican voters.

Recognizer of belligerence wrote:

It was pretty clear that he was referring to people he knew.

I for one am interested in what this guy has to say, and very much not interested in what you have to say.

Which just goes to show that there is indeed a fool born every minute.

There have been a few folks on this thread who have claimed to be learning something from the hot air being released here. One can only hope that what they are learning is what Wall Street blowhards sound like.

As the wise man of the thread said, "The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat." You can add in Flaggy's mantra as well if you wish. Pretty much everything else? Basically hot air.

interesting chart on the VIX -

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5EVIX

;range=1d

I hope that link works - it is just a 5 year chart of the Vix. We've had around 20 VIX spikes over the last five years and looks like all but 2-4 only got approx as high on the VIX as we are now.

the exceptions were probably the euro debt crisis and probably the GOP brattish attempted shutdown of the government. Too lazy to look it up.

So that's an argument to start looking for things to buy. And probably too late to sell.

Probably. and it is just one argument.

agip, good grief, on all of it, first and foremost the deficit announcement, and second the suggestion that there is any serious buying going on.

That type of stuff is aimed directly at voters, not investors.

DJIA now down 79 on the day to 16,465, with a bit of time left.

Are you picking up small caps today?

Maserati wrote:

agip, good grief, on all of it, first and foremost the deficit announcement, and second the suggestion that there is any serious buying going on.

That type of stuff is aimed directly at voters, not investors.

DJIA now down 79 on the day to 16,465, with a bit of time left.

Are you picking up small caps today?

see this is where you go off to some weird land - what does 'aimed directly at voters' mean? really, what does it mean?

I bought one stock today - solid manufacturing company, cheapish and fell 10% in this decline.

wow - really dumping now - down 1.1% now

Now down 143. Something has happened. agip, are you buying?

Now down 185.

agip, that is the kind of news morons get when the GDP is inflated by 3%, like it is.

Why don't you calculate deficit:GDP ratios from Reagan by using the new GDP methodology, and see what you get?

SP500 down even more, even small caps now down.

Maserati wrote:

Now down 185.

agip, that is the kind of news morons get when the GDP is inflated by 3%, like it is.

Why don't you calculate deficit:GDP ratios from Reagan by using the new GDP methodology, and see what you get?

SP500 down even more, even small caps now down.

give me one good, positive bullish fact about the economy that you believe.

Better- give me 3. Give me three bullish, positive economic facts. Sometimes I think you don't believe anything at all a out anything.

And nothing can relate to the federal reserve.

Can you do it?

DJIA closes down 226 to 16,318

SP500 closes down 30 to 1,876

Finally, the Dow has been living up to the title of this thread lately.

* wrote:

Finally, the Dow has been living up to the title of this thread lately.

Of course it's still way over where it was when this thread started.

Positive fact: greater opportunity for technological development due to post-Alice invalidation of unpatentable software patent claims

Positive fact: greater efficiency results from the increasing rate of death of public sector union hacks who are either now receiving, or who will receive, defined pension benefits, if only by virtue of their advancing age

Positive fact: greater efficiency results from the cessation of forced union tribute post-Harris

Those are 3 very narrowly-drawn and verified facts that are generally viewed as "economically positive".

I know what you're asking for, and you're not going to get it from me. "The economy" sucks, plain and simple. Even where there is productivity, there is tremendous drag. All the difficulties continue to be temporarily papered-over. There is no silver lining, even for the highly-leveraged. There is abundant friction and deterioration, the only question is when, to what extent, at what speed, and in what manner the machinery slows.

Yes, there are lots of "positive economic facts", but the GDP number is not one of them. One must be alert and discerning, and actually know and understand facts, and then limit oneself to what those facts actually indicate.

jfc

DJIA now -1.5% YTD

So what does tomorrow bring? Where are all the technicals guys?

IMHO there is still room to go down.

How short memories are.

Here are some lows, all within the past 12 months:

15 Oct 2013 15,168

12 Dec 2013 15,739

03 Feb 2014 15,373

11 Apr 2014 16,023

20 May 2014 16,374

07 Aug 2014 16,368

This is not the big crash, it is just a dip. If you are a true believer, like Flagpole, I would think that this would represent a real buying opportunity.

Welcome to Hot Air Central!

* wrote:

* wrote:

Finally, the Dow has been living up to the title of this thread lately.

Of course it's still way over where it was when this thread started.

Give it some more time.

Bloomberg is reporting concerns about fake Chinese export data, in order to circumvent capital inflow regulations, in preparation for a rising Renminbi.

The alternative explanation? "Local officials trying to make their mandated growth targets".

Either way you slice it, it smells like crap. China figures large in global growth figures, and US projections.

Sorry agip, I know what you are thinking and how you feel about this post.