Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

leaping lanny [Hardloper] wrote:

Trump HATE Map wrote:

People of Color Harrassed by Trump and His Supporters

https://americasvoice.org/trumphatemap/

How many of these were false flags committed by deranged left-wingers? The first one I checked out was:

LOL .. the first 20 I looked were all legit Trumpers gone insane,

When you are going to spend hours, and hours, looking for one that isn't "right", and then lie that it was the first one you looked at, then no one will believe you Hardloper.

PS. Your trolling game is incredibly weak.

Hey come on, dude! That's a bit harsh, don't you think?

Sometimes I hitched a ride - not always on a bus. And I wouldn't necessarily call it wobbling. I prefer, 'balance challenged'.

Nate Silver? Bahahahaha!!!! He totally blew it with Trump.

https://www.thewrap.com/nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-the-election-can-his-brand-recover/

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/2016-election-worst-predictions-230806

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/nate_silver_said_donald_trump_had_no_shot_where_did_he_go_wrong.html

Like I said, anyone who criticizes Nate Silver is a moron.

I didn't need such quick supporting evidence, but I'll take it.

Nate subjectively didn't believe Trump had any chance in the primaries. I can understand that. As a liberal I proudly can never figure out how conservatives think, so I butcher the forecasts of their primaries all the time. That's been going on for a quarter century. It's really only become easy recently...since basically anyone who Trump backs wins.

Once Nate gets to the math and the relevant variables, nobody is close to him in terms of describing the layout of the race. He laughed at fellow progressives like Sam Wong who declared Hillary was 99% certain to win. Nate even used a curse word on twitter to deride Wong and others who were using that 98-99% range. Wong had to eat a bug on live television after the botched call.

If you want to condemn Sam Wong, I have no argument. His model is flawed. Too much emphasis on state polls. Conservatives have never heard of Sam Wong so they make fools of themselves by isolating the more well known guy in Nate Silver to ridicule.

Long term it is a losing proposition, just like trying to pretend that 46% is a victory...no need to change anything.

***

Let's get to this year. I'll paste some big picture quotes from Nate in a 538 chat in early August. Tips like this tend to play out accurately:

"natesilver: I’ve become somewhat convinced, though, that the Sun Belt path — e.g., picking up a ton of districts in states like Georgia and Texas — is a little overrated for Democrats.

For one thing, those aren’t the districts where they’ve performed all that well in special elections, as Nathaniel noted. But for another, they’re a bit redder than you’d gather from looking at presidential elections — both states are very red in state elections, for instance."

"natesilver: I mean, I think the Democrats’ gains are likely to be concentrated in (i) the Midwest, (ii) California, (iii) New York/New Jersey. Those three places, specifically."

"natesilver: The Russia stuff might move the dial among the Democratic base. And it likely contributes to Trump’s overall unpopularity.

Keep in mind, by the way, that most voters expected Clinton to win. So they may have elected Republicans to Congress expecting them to be a check on her. Since they got Trump instead, the balancing-type arguments could be especially powerful."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/who-are-the-most-important-swing-voters-in-this-years-midterms/

I had no idea the nation was this evenly split on this topic. It demonstrates how quickly Trump's benefit of a doubt has dropped:

Impeachment support for Trump:

* 47% Think Trump should be impeached and removed from office

* 48% Don't feel that way

From the article: "Support for impeachment has risen since June, when 42% said Trump should be removed from office. That increase comes almost entirely among independents -- 48% now say the President ought to be impeached, up from 38% in June -- who have also soured on Trump's job performance generally."

That's the point I have made here frequently, that independents supported Trump in 2016 but now have turned against him. Conservatives who continue to reject the polls and make comparisons to 2016 are frankly stupid. They either have no clue toward that defection from independents, or prefer to wish it away.

Here's another one from the article:

* About 6 in 10 Americans say they consider the Russia investigation a serious matter (61%) rather than an effort to discredit Trump's presidency (33%).

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/12/politics/cnn-poll-mueller-trump-approval-gap/index.html

Good morning! How are all you LRC stable geniuses doing this fine am?

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/07/12/trump-speaks-after-nato-summit-stable-genius-newday-vpx.cnn

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Nate Silver? Bahahahaha!!!! He totally blew it with Trump.

Nate Silver had the most accurate prediction on the eve of election night, saying that Trump was a single polling error away from leading, that Trump had essentially a 1 in 3 chance of winning (a good batting average for a hitter) and he correctly predicted the popular vote.

Nate is now saying that the Senate has the same 1 in 3 chance to go Democrat that Trump was given two years ago.

So, a decent chance.

Here is a breakdown:

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 that caucus Democrat (including Bernie)

There are 35 seats up for election in November - 26 held by Democrats and only 9 by Republicans.

Democrats need to gain a net of 2 seats to control legislation and Supreme Court affirmations.

First, they have to defend 26 seats, many in pretty red states.

Here are the big battles to defend for Dems:

Florida - incumbent Bill Nelson against popular governor Rick Scott. A highly motivated Dem base, including people displaced from Puerto Rico, the general Latin community, black people coming out to vote for Gillum for governor and some angry women could help retain Nelson. But Florida is politically unpredictable.

West Virginia - Deep red but they like Dem Joe Manchin. He'll win even if he doesn't vote for Kavanaugh

Pennsylvania - Casey is highly favored to keep his seat

Ohio - Brown is highly favored to keep his seat

Michigan - 99% staying Dem

Wisconsin - 95% staying Dem

New Mexico - 98% staying Dem

Montana - Red state but Tester is well liked. They have it 90% staying blue

Missouri - Red state for sure. Claire McCaskill is favored to stay at 70%

North Dakota - The Republican's best chance to flip a seat but Heide Heitkamp is popular and favored to win

Republicans may turn one or two Senate seats from blue to red but they very well and likely may not change a single one. The other Democrat seats are in pretty blue states that aren't flipping.

Now, here are Republican seats that Democrats can flip:

Nevada - Right now Dem Jacky Rosen is favored to unseat Rep Dean Heller

Arizona - Kyrsten Sinema (D) is currently favored to beat Martha McSally who won the Republican primary for Jeff Flake's seat. This is a state where I think Trump campaigning for the Republican will help the Democrat considering how Trump treated McCain

Texas - they say Ted Cruz is favored to win at 65% but I think Beto O'Rourke is going to pull this out and gain a seat for the Dems. Democrats in Texas haven't had much reason to come out and vote in years. This guy may get some first timers to the polls. Nobody really likes Ted Cruz.

Tennessee - Bob Corker retired. It's an open battle of Republican Marsha Blackburn vs. Democrat Phil Bredesen.

Blackburn is favored but Bredesen is a former two term governor of Tennessee and has a good shot of winning.

If the current favorite in every single state wins in November, then the Democrats pick up the two seats they need.

Of course, upsets will happen and Republicans have more chances.

It's obviously a state by state situation but across the country I think Democrat voters want to come out and vote as a reaction to Trump being an unpopular president.

And exactly how motivated are Republican voters to come and vote right now?

We'll soon see.

Awsi Dooger wrote:

Weak Sauce wrote:

Eric Trump: “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.”

Yes, I remember that one well. And Eric Trump offered another gem on Wednesday, summoning an obscure currency term to refer to Bob Woodward's book and supposedly desperation to sell a few more copies. I'm sure that's what motivates Woodward at this stage of his career.

Right wingers protest loudly any time they are proposed as racist or anti-semitic, but they sure do find some strange terms while discussing various people they view as the opposition, from DeSantis' "monkey it up" comment recently in Florida, and now this example. It has been called another foghorn toward the base:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/eric-trumps-ugly-three-extra-shekels-attack-bob-woodward-draws-accusations-anti-semitism/

It’s a good strategy on the right indeed - rely on the base’s memory fog and do a 180 when it suits them. Comey carried Trump across the finish line in 2016 - instead of praise he got fired for informing Trump about possible Russian interference. They loved the Mueller pick for the investigation but as soon as it started to look like he was actually going to do his job they start calling him a Hillary puppet. Bob Woodward gave them a huge vote of confidence when he called the dossier garbage and said the bureau should have never taken that seriously, but now he writes a book fully exposing Trump’s imcompetence and suddenly he’s an enemy of the state. If tripling down on a lie doesn’t work they just flip their claims. It really is the ultimate party of suckers and deplorables.

It's even worse than that as there are a lot of people like me out there who don't believe that Trump should be impeached TODAY. I don't think that process should start until we have a report from Mueller. I also think though that once the report comes out, impeachment and removal (or his resignation) will be the only possible option.

Rigged - Trump claimed that almost 3,000 did not die in Puerto Rico. Do you support his lie and conspiracy promotion? Just another easy question for you to avoid.

meh

the catch is that at any point in time, 30-40% of the population wants to impeach the president. Seriously. Trump's number is higher than usual, but it's not some landmark shocker

Trollminator wrote:

Rigged - Trump claimed that almost 3,000 did not die in Puerto Rico. Do you support his lie and conspiracy promotion? Just another easy question for you to avoid.

someone pointed out that Trump called the Fed PR response a great job - and that's knowing 3000 people died. His standard of 'great job' is pretty dangerous for citizens.

Trump’s warmth toward Putin has resulted in Russia feeling brave enough to fly bombers along the Alaskan coast. It is not the first time this month.

Mark my words, Trump’s inability to play anything harder than marbles has given Putin extreme strategic leverage. Whereas we never gave them an inch in the past, they are now roaming freely. Putin is taking advantage and there is no question he is planning another annexation. And the moment we have a leadership change that is back to tough on Russia Putin will cry foul and the strategic gap created will become very apparent but it will be too late to do anything.

Trump was unable to comprehend why it made sense to keep spending $1B in South Korea to retain our missile defense capabilities. Think about that. Let that marbles-playing-thought process sink in for a second.

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

It's even worse than that as there are a lot of people like me out there who don't believe that Trump should be impeached TODAY. I don't think that process should start until we have a report from Mueller. I also think though that once the report comes out, impeachment and removal (or his resignation) will be the only possible option.

meh

the catch is that at any point in time, 30-40% of the population wants to impeach the president. Seriously. Trump's number is higher than usual, but it's not some landmark shocker

I think Awsi Dooger was more commenting on the movement of the number. We are starting to see support and indifference fall away from this President just like many people predicted would happen eventually including me of course.

Trollminator wrote:

Trump was unable to comprehend why it made sense to keep spending $1B in South Korea to retain our missile defense capabilities. Think about that. Let that marbles-playing-thought process sink in for a second.

Also remember that Trump almost ended the South Korea trade agreement. But it was stolen off his desk before he could sign it and then he forgot about it. This could have destroyed our strategic relationship with South Korea, jeopardized our anti-missile system, and given the Russians a huge gift in the region.

To this day, nobody seems to know how the document got onto Trump's desk in the first place. It didn't go through the normal process.

Who is pushing Trump's anti-South Korea agenda?

Trollminator wrote:

Trump’s warmth toward Putin has resulted in Russia feeling brave enough to fly bombers along the Alaskan coast. It is not the first time this month.

Mark my words, Trump’s inability to play anything harder than marbles has given Putin extreme strategic leverage. Whereas we never gave them an inch in the past, they are now roaming freely. Putin is taking advantage and there is no question he is planning another annexation. And the moment we have a leadership change that is back to tough on Russia Putin will cry foul and the strategic gap created will become very apparent but it will be too late to do anything.

Trump was unable to comprehend why it made sense to keep spending $1B in South Korea to retain our missile defense capabilities. Think about that. Let that marbles-playing-thought process sink in for a second.

meh again

the russians have always flown bomber flights around alaska - it's standard operating procedure. we do the same thing in the baltic sea and elsewhere. this has been going on forever.

Jeff Wigand wrote:

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

Nate Silver? Bahahahaha!!!! He totally blew it with Trump.

Nate Silver had the most accurate prediction on the eve of election night, saying that Trump was a single polling error away from leading, that Trump had essentially a 1 in 3 chance of winning (a good batting average for a hitter) and he correctly predicted the popular vote.

One thing that Trump never gets challenged on is his claim that is easy to win the popular vote, but hard for a Republican to win the electoral college. The small red states have a higher proportional effect on the electoral college which favors republicans and if he had campaigned in California and NY he would not have swung too many votes.

No not meh. It’s not about whether they do it or not, it’s that 1) they violate airspace norms with much mor frequency now and 2) we don’t even respond - not even verbally. This last one in Alaska for example, the last time they did it the bomber was alone, this time it was escorted by two fighter jets. We don’t even say anything. Now their massive military exercise - we don’t say anything. If it keeps becoming the norm and acceptable we keep losing leverage. This is how we fvcked up in Ukraine.