Maserati wrote:
Ok I will answer it.
Pandemic, large-scale war, famine, electric grid goes down, or commodities dislocation, especially oil.
The US is still pumping, but the writing is on the wall. It is the only end that is predictable.
It doesn’t work that way. There is no event trigger. Simply, the marginal buyer disappears. The foundation is unstable, like a domino tower when the last piece is added. Collapse. That is why you will be surprised when it happens.
BTW I am with you guys, just on a different time-frame. As long as the fixes stay in, the markets will rise. Think about housing, and you will get it. Gov used to govern on housing, now it is governing on equity markets. Housing has been all but forgotten with the market news, and overall, prices have stabilized at ridiculously high levels, outstripping wages handily and not coming back down. Ownership has been concentrating in those with money.
Maserati wrote:
A lot of people did well in the depression. We have social safety mets that were not in place then. REAL unemployment, right now, is at depression-era levels.
That most people did well in the great depression is an interesting and very rarely-discussed fact...think about it...if you were one of the 3/4 of workers who kept his job...then you had a banquet of falling price levels that gave you a raise every day.
But
Maser's belief that inflation is running at c.8% AND we have depression-level unemployment is an unsupportable view.
I mean if you want to depend on fringe unbelievable stats, you could argue we have EITHER 8% inflation OR 25% unemployment, but you can't argue both. They can't go together. You can't have massive unemployment AND sky-high inflation unless the country were in a free fall of some sort. Like Venezuela level catastrophe. Which obviously we aren't having.
Maserati wrote:
BTW I am with you guys, just on a different time-frame. As long as the fixes stay in, the markets will rise. Think about housing, and you will get it. Gov used to govern on housing, now it is governing on equity markets. Housing has been all but forgotten with the market news, and overall, prices have stabilized at ridiculously high levels, outstripping wages handily and not coming back down. Ownership has been concentrating in those with money.
Housing affordability is increasing and is only a bit harder on Americans than its 50 year average.
So no, not ridiculously high.
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/hd_hsg_aff.htmlMaserati wrote:
Exactly and precisely what event will kill US consumer spending?
If I knew that then I'd be preparing to be a trillionaire by putting every cent into the wackiest of hyper-leveraged financial vehicles a la Michael Burry in 2007.
What are you asking? Are you saying the market is indestructible and that consumer's will never lose confidence? Your thesis is all over the place
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
BTW I am with you guys, just on a different time-frame. As long as the fixes stay in, the markets will rise. Think about housing, and you will get it. Gov used to govern on housing, now it is governing on equity markets. Housing has been all but forgotten with the market news, and overall, prices have stabilized at ridiculously high levels, outstripping wages handily and not coming back down. Ownership has been concentrating in those with money.
Housing affordability is increasing and is only a bit harder on Americans than its 50 year average.
So no, not ridiculously high.
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/hd_hsg_aff.html
While that is true, it is harder to get a loan now since get-rich-quick house flipping retards fvcked everything up in 2005-2006. Combined with the fact that a lot of Millennials are saddled with student loan debt making it even harder to get a loan then you can understand why some people feel left behind
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
BTW I am with you guys, just on a different time-frame. As long as the fixes stay in, the markets will rise. Think about housing, and you will get it. Gov used to govern on housing, now it is governing on equity markets. Housing has been all but forgotten with the market news, and overall, prices have stabilized at ridiculously high levels, outstripping wages handily and not coming back down. Ownership has been concentrating in those with money.
Housing affordability is increasing and is only a bit harder on Americans than its 50 year average.
So no, not ridiculously high.
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/hd_hsg_aff.html
whoops I misread the graph.
Housing is MORE affordable than its 50 year average, but has become a bit less affordable the last few quarters.
" The affordability of purchasing a home rose in
the third quarter. The NAR Composite Housing
(Homeownership) Affordability increased 5.2 percent to
159.8 in the third quarter and was up 11.4 percent from
a year earlier. The third-quarter increase in the ability to
purchase a home resulted from a decline in the mortgage
interest rate and an increase in Median Family Income,
which more than offset an increase in the median price
of a single-family home. The homeownership affordability
index peaked in the first quarter of 2012, at 209.0, and fell
sharply through the third quarter of 2013, as home prices
climbed and mortgage rates rose
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Housing affordability is increasing and is only a bit harder on Americans than its 50 year average.
So no, not ridiculously high.
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/hd_hsg_aff.htmlWhile that is true, it is harder to get a loan now since get-rich-quick house flipping retards fvcked everything up in 2005-2006. Combined with the fact that a lot of Millennials are saddled with student loan debt making it even harder to get a loan then you can understand why some people feel left behind
I'm not a big believer in existence of a new student loan crisis
Not sure on the mortgage question.
But surely if you can a 3% mortgage right now you are very very happy about housing prices. I mean that's practically a zero percent loan after inflation. And if you are one of the millenials with student debt, you are likely reaping the benefits of income inequality since you have college degree, the extra pay benefit of that, and a historically good job market.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
A lot of people did well in the depression. We have social safety mets that were not in place then. REAL unemployment, right now, is at depression-era levels.
That most people did well in the great depression is an interesting and very rarely-discussed fact...think about it...if you were one of the 3/4 of workers who kept his job...then you had a banquet of falling price levels that gave you a raise every day.
But
Maser's belief that inflation is running at c.8% AND we have depression-level unemployment is an unsupportable view.
I mean if you want to depend on fringe unbelievable stats, you could argue we have EITHER 8% inflation OR 25% unemployment, but you can't argue both. They can't go together. You can't have massive unemployment AND sky-high inflation unless the country were in a free fall of some sort. Like Venezuela level catastrophe. Which obviously we aren't having.
In regards to the Depression my mother’s family did fine since they were farmers in Illinois. My father hopped freight trains to California from Illinois to find work. He was the oldest and his father was laid off from his job as an electrician in a coal mine. Two of my uncles found work with the Civilian Conservation Corps.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
While that is true, it is harder to get a loan now since get-rich-quick house flipping retards fvcked everything up in 2005-2006. Combined with the fact that a lot of Millennials are saddled with student loan debt making it even harder to get a loan then you can understand why some people feel left behind
I'm not a big believer in existence of a new student loan crisis
Not sure on the mortgage question.
But surely if you can a 3% mortgage right now you are very very happy about housing prices. I mean that's practically a zero percent loan after inflation. And if you are one of the millenials with student debt, you are likely reaping the benefits of income inequality since you have college degree, the extra pay benefit of that, and a historically good job market.
Depends on what you mean by "crisis" I guess but consider also that rent has gone way up as well.
More money to rent and paying down student loans means it's harder to save up for a down payment and your debt-to-income ratio is higher. Banks aren't giving out loans unless people are in decent shape and it's hard to get there when saddled with all that. Delayed home ownership means a whole host of things too. So yeah, if you can actually get a loan then housing prices are maybe OK but there's also a big demographic switch of young educated people (who have student loans) moving to the cities where housing prices are a lot higher on average.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
That most people did well in the great depression is an interesting and very rarely-discussed fact...think about it...if you were one of the 3/4 of workers who kept his job...then you had a banquet of falling price levels that gave you a raise every day.
But
Maser's belief that inflation is running at c.8% AND we have depression-level unemployment is an unsupportable view.
I mean if you want to depend on fringe unbelievable stats, you could argue we have EITHER 8% inflation OR 25% unemployment, but you can't argue both. They can't go together. You can't have massive unemployment AND sky-high inflation unless the country were in a free fall of some sort. Like Venezuela level catastrophe. Which obviously we aren't having.
In regards to the Depression my mother’s family did fine since they were farmers in Illinois. My father hopped freight trains to California from Illinois to find work. He was the oldest and his father was laid off from his job as an electrician in a coal mine. Two of my uncles found work with the Civilian Conservation Corps.
Can't imagine farmers anywhere in the US did well during the Depression.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In regards to the Depression my mother’s family did fine since they were farmers in Illinois. My father hopped freight trains to California from Illinois to find work. He was the oldest and his father was laid off from his job as an electrician in a coal mine. Two of my uncles found work with the Civilian Conservation Corps.
Can't imagine farmers anywhere in the US did well during the Depression.
My mother said there was always plenty to eat. Things they could grow, also cows and chickens. Could barter for other things. Their farm was in Fairview Heights, Illinois about 10-20 miles northeast of downtown St. Louis.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm not a big believer in existence of a new student loan crisis
Not sure on the mortgage question.
But surely if you can a 3% mortgage right now you are very very happy about housing prices. I mean that's practically a zero percent loan after inflation. And if you are one of the millenials with student debt, you are likely reaping the benefits of income inequality since you have college degree, the extra pay benefit of that, and a historically good job market.
Depends on what you mean by "crisis" I guess but consider also that rent has gone way up as well.
More money to rent and paying down student loans means it's harder to save up for a down payment and your debt-to-income ratio is higher. Banks aren't giving out loans unless people are in decent shape and it's hard to get there when saddled with all that. Delayed home ownership means a whole host of things too. So yeah, if you can actually get a loan then housing prices are maybe OK but there's also a big demographic switch of young educated people (who have student loans) moving to the cities where housing prices are a lot higher on average.
my basic view is that first, around half of student debt is for grad school. Those people will make tons of money so not so worried about them.
Second, interest rates are so low now that I read the monthly nugget debtors have to pay is about the same as it ever was.
third, a nation that sends 40% more people to college (which we do) is not a problem. Sure, there's some debt that comes with that, but a more highly educated population is hardly a problem in the long run.
fourth, again, the people with school debt are the ones making tons of money in this economy. They're fine. It's the HSers with no debt (but facing low income for decades) that we really need to worry about.
I will agree that home prices in NYC, LA, SF and that kind of place are sky high and 20 somethings are pretty much priced out in many/most instances. That is a lot of people, agreed. But the good side is that in NYC anyway, 20 somethings are moving into Harlem and other formerly poor neighborhoods and regenerating them. Amazing good stuff going on for those people.
Sold the remaining 10% of TSLA options. Wow.
Housing is not as affordable because household income now contemplates multiple wage-earners per household. In fact it is ridiculously higher except for parts of the midwest and deep south.
Inflation and unemployment are both higher than reported, if calculation methods and data collection are kept consistent. Not only is it supportable, it is actually calculated by many. It is not my opinion, it is demonstrated fact.
That we are not Venezuela is because we still have the reserve currency, the world’s best consumer base, the world’s best long-reach military, and and the world’s largest national economy.
Many made out like bandits during and just after the depression. It wasn’t as bad as all the sob-story, heart string-tugging propaganda would have ypu believe. MY parents and their families, THEY had it tough. They had to eat toothpaste and scavenge clothing off dead bodies during the war. Many died in the combat, and in the camps, even after the war in the gulag.
I know some families here whose fortunes were made during the depression, although it took a while to realize. And in the north, apparently many weren’t even aware there was a depression at all, except when CCC crews came around to build something.
At that time, only a handful of elites owned equities—now many own directly or indirectly, and int’l money is all over the US markets. Totally different situation. Totally.
So Racket, exactly and precisely what will kill US consumer spending? To me, the thinking of many others is unclear, incoherent, and unjustifiable. I know what is happening, now, and I have short time-frames. My historic returns over decades and success ratio are proof that my combination of belief and action work to enhance returns.
How in the world agip can deny simple facts is beyond me. National pride? Idk. And Racket you need to look deeper into history. There are always, always, winners and losers. We are already in stagflation, only money supply and asset prices rise. You are either in, or out. I have been hearing for 25 years how Van RE will crash. Instead, Toronto has now skyrocketed. It is why Bitcoin is still worth thousands of dollars.
DXY will be critical, and is currently being managed. That and commodities are what to worry about, the gov/fed has the rest covered. And they might have thise covered, too.
Maser answer yes or no:
US treasuries with a 2% coupon are losing c. 6% per year in real money.
Maserati wrote:
Sold the remaining 10% of TSLA options. Wow.
Housing is not as affordable because household income now contemplates multiple wage-earners per household. In fact it is ridiculously higher except for parts of the midwest and deep south.
Inflation and unemployment are both higher than reported, if calculation methods and data collection are kept consistent. Not only is it supportable, it is actually calculated by many. It is not my opinion, it is demonstrated fact.
That we are not Venezuela is because we still have the reserve currency, the world’s best consumer base, the world’s best long-reach military, and and the world’s largest national economy.
Many made out like bandits during and just after the depression. It wasn’t as bad as all the sob-story, heart string-tugging propaganda would have ypu believe. MY parents and their families, THEY had it tough. They had to eat toothpaste and scavenge clothing off dead bodies during the war. Many died in the combat, and in the camps, even after the war in the gulag.
I know some families here whose fortunes were made during the depression, although it took a while to realize. And in the north, apparently many weren’t even aware there was a depression at all, except when CCC crews came around to build something.
At that time, only a handful of elites owned equities—now many own directly or indirectly, and int’l money is all over the US markets. Totally different situation. Totally.
So Racket, exactly and precisely what will kill US consumer spending? To me, the thinking of many others is unclear, incoherent, and unjustifiable. I know what is happening, now, and I have short time-frames. My historic returns over decades and success ratio are proof that my combination of belief and action work to enhance returns.
How in the world agip can deny simple facts is beyond me. National pride? Idk. And Racket you need to look deeper into history. There are always, always, winners and losers. We are already in stagflation, only money supply and asset prices rise. You are either in, or out. I have been hearing for 25 years how Van RE will crash. Instead, Toronto has now skyrocketed. It is why Bitcoin is still worth thousands of dollars.
DXY will be critical, and is currently being managed. That and commodities are what to worry about, the gov/fed has the rest covered. And they might have thise covered, too.
Mas, hitting the sauce a little early today? I know it's Friday and all, but still.
Congrats on the TSLA beat though
agip wrote:
my basic view is that first, around half of student debt is for grad school. Those people will make tons of money so not so worried about them.
Yes they'll make money eventually, but in the mean time they're putting off buying houses and delaying starting families, and using a ton of money to repay loans instead of going out to buy stuff. It's a drag on the economy and people are wondering why birth rates in the US are below replenishment.
Also US manufacturing fell again for the fifth month.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2019 (with 3% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
“This second downward year in a row in Metro Vancouver prices — after more than two decades of fast-rising values — suggests new B.C. government taxes aimed at limiting foreign and domestic property speculation are having an impact, even while the Lower Mainland’s population continues to grow through in-migration.”
1/3/2020