KeIIy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end
They are above average, but they were higher in the not too distant past.
Of course you are right and Igy is wrong, but we all know Igy lacks basic honesty.
Detector Dude lies like a rug, or is it just his insane Igy obsession?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Except it has gone down over 50% twice in the last 20 years.
No it didn't - it went down about 38% and then about 45%, and both were part of the same ten-year trend, about average for the Dow's three historical downs.
Face it - the Dow is in an UP cycle. Up, up, up. Everyone's getting rich but you.
I genuinely think that based on the way the market has been rallying, with constant support for the dips, and the improving outlook for the economy and all the rate hikes, etc., its a good time to be 100% in equities. That's just for the current situation, not for 6 months for now or thereafter. The widespread fears and market risks we were entertaining earlier this year just don't seem to have materialized and i get the feeling that the institutional investors have been quietly and steadily loading up as each passing day goes by with no dire developments.
Bad Wigins wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Except it has gone down over 50% twice in the last 20 years.
No it didn't - it went down about 38% and then about 45%, and both were part of the same ten-year trend, about average for the Dow's three historical downs.
Face it - the Dow is in an UP cycle. Up, up, up. Everyone's getting rich but you.[/quote
Sorry bad digits, your numbers are all wrong. You are using annuals I suspect.
Bear Market 2000 – 2002 – Overview. On 03/24/2000, the broad US stock market index S&P 500 reached a high of 1552.87 index points at US market close before declining to a low of 768.63 points on 10/10/2002. The S&P 500 index lost 50.50% during this bear market.
https://snipermarkettiming.com
› be...
Bear Market 2000 - 2002 - Sniper Market Timing
Nasdaq
In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52).
In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40).
In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51).
Loss this time period-83%
“Face it - the Dow is in an UP cycle. Up, up, up. Everyone's getting rich but you.”
Face it, you don’t know much.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end while bond yields at their lows. So one can believe this doesn’t matter, and for a young investor will small savings this is true. The destruction of capital over the completion of this Bull Market will be historic, and return likely negative over the next ten years for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Some calculations of what that would look like is not pretty:
Unfortunately, you have paid the price (and still are) for not buying in to my theory that I posted on here over 6 years ago "It's different this time".
To each his own!
Yes, and that is the belief in every bubble since the Tulip. Bubbles need investors like you.
I really was expecting another picture from you of Mellon stepping off of the Dow Cliff when it was at 16,000.
Won’t matter when it is 9,500.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Won’t matter when it is 9,500.
So, he steps off the cliff at 16,500, like he said. Then when it's at 9,500 (like you predict), he buys back what he sold at 16,500.
There's always a trade to be made and that would be a good one.
OK, works out for him, but not investors as a whole.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, works out for him, but not investors as a whole.
I don't really know what "investors as a whole" entails, to be honest. Some of that drop is due to shorting and those investors are making money during the aforementioned downturn. How many investors sell for a loss in that time frame, and if so, when do they buy back? I just don't know. I just know for an individual investor like him or me, and while it is a major headache, it does inevitably set up the next big rise, or so history would lead us to believe.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Detector Dude lies like a rug, or is it just his insane Igy obsession?
Nice diversion, liar.
Sweden?
“Skoal!”
“Sure it's cold. It's got ice in it.”
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Face it, you don’t know much.
Oh, the irony!
[quote]agip wrote:
1. True enough, but during the first, valuations were far higher than now, and in the second there was a clear housing bubble.
Is there a housing bubble now?
What statistics show that there was a "clear" housing bubble before (I assume you mean 2008-209)?
What do those same indicators say now?
Or, on the other hand, are you just talking shite?