Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

1. True enough, but during the first, valuations were far higher than now, and in the second there was a clear housing bubble.

2. False that incomes of most Americans are stagnant. Yes, they borrow a carpload of money top maintain a higher standard of living. As they have for several generations.

3. Uh, well yes, asset prices are up. As they should be, given a rising population and a growing economy.

4. Tiny, tiny, tiny wars. Immaterial to the world economy.

5. Inflation is very low and shows no signs of rising. What is the fed supposed to do? Raise rates to slow the economy and drive us into deflation? Is that what you want? Why?

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/inflationary-angst?utm_campaign=JM-305&utm_content=9r2gwwkz&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=for

I'll take a look.

first off, you'd have to prove that there is an a sharp increase in homeless. That's a hard number to count, there are always homeless, and anyway, looking at the very bottom smidge of the population makes as much as much as sense as looking at the very top smidge of population, when trying to measure an economy.

nah wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You like others, try to pin me to a time, and I just throw out a date.

Igy

That's because you don't have a clue.

The one thing we do know, positioning yourself 10 years in advance and still waiting, not a smart move.

You've not been alone in your thinking, just the only one claiming it's been spot on.

I hope people have been joking on here about you being an advisor.

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end while bond yields at their lows. So one can believe this doesn’t matter, and for a young investor will small savings this is true. The destruction of capital over the completion of this Bull Market will be historic, and return likely negative over the next ten years for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Some calculations of what that would look like is not pretty:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end while bond yields at their lows. So one can believe this doesn’t matter, and for a young investor will small savings this is true. The destruction of capital over the completion of this Bull Market will be historic, and return likely negative over the next ten years for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Some calculations of what that would look like is not pretty:

Unfortunately, you have paid the price (and still are) for not buying in to my theory that I posted on here over 6 years ago "It's different this time".

To each his own!

Am at the microbrew after close, with Santa and one of his (very hot) elves. Last Friday before xmas we all buy our own, from a pool of $ we build over the year. We never use it all, which is probably a good thing! Drinking an 8.5% vanilla porter. Kind of feel like some of you are here in spirit! Lol

Seattle this reminds me of, what was it, 2013? You cannot make a wrong move. My SPXL is rising. My b&h is rising. My big buy-in is rising, and it has more than a few things in it. Even my HD buy is looking ok?, well ok at least not totally shiit. And my options...omg I had TGT options that I made a lot of money on, enough to have a bunch to risk on TSLA.

Shiit has jumped the shark, and I’m on board—and I consider myself conservative. The trick will be to get away with these gains before “they” come to collect them—getting the gains is easy, keeping them will be harder.

This is so ridiculous. Perception is reality. Like most, we contribute to both sides—but this time around, we will give more to R.

Igy, the joke is on you.

Ok the beer is taking effect, and the elf is looking my way. She probably thinks I’m a potential sugar daddy. How I wish I could post pics?

A good weekend to all, may we all rise with the epic tide of history?

mellon wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end while bond yields at their lows. So one can believe this doesn’t matter, and for a young investor will small savings this is true. The destruction of capital over the completion of this Bull Market will be historic, and return likely negative over the next ten years for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Some calculations of what that would look like is not pretty:

Unfortunately, you have paid the price (and still are) for not buying in to my theory that I posted on here over 6 years ago "It's different this time".

To each his own!

Yes, and that is the belief in every bubble since the Tulip. Bubbles need investors like you.

Maserati,

The joke is the next time you have buyer’s remorse on your “buy and hold investment.” The only question is that in two days, two weeks, or two months.

That elf may be missing her two front teeth when you wake up from your hangover.

?‍♀️

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to DGTD. Count your coins, and hopefully no Ebenzer Scrooge.

Igy

mellon wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end while bond yields at their lows. So one can believe this doesn’t matter, and for a young investor will small savings this is true. The destruction of capital over the completion of this Bull Market will be historic, and return likely negative over the next ten years for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Some calculations of what that would look like is not pretty:

Unfortunately, you have paid the price (and still are) for not buying in to my theory that I posted on here over 6 years ago "It's different this time".

To each his own!

Given the smugness level is rising to obnoxious levels, I’m thinking it’s nearing time to head for the exits. Everyone on this thread is starting to think of themselves as an investment genius.

Who the F do you think you are talking to?

Earnings Growth: For Q4 2019, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -1.4%. If -1.4% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported four straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines since Q3 2015 through Q2 2016.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end

They are above average, but they were higher in the not too distant past.

KeIIy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

As I have pointed out on numerous occasions stock valuations are at their far upper end

They are above average, but they were higher in the not too distant past.

You are correct.

That guy is wrong more often than you are. Speaking of 20 years, that’s how long it has been since Hussman was right about anything.

Mioplio wrote:

That guy is wrong more often than you are. Speaking of 20 years, that’s how long it has been since Hussman was right about anything.

November 2007 (market peak previous month):

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mioplio wrote:

That guy is wrong more often than you are. Speaking of 20 years, that’s how long it has been since Hussman was right about anything.

November 2007 (market peak previous month):

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071119.htm

And the DOW has more than doubled since that time. Your point?

Mioplio wrote:

And the DOW has more than doubled since that time. Your point?

We all know what has happened on the past.

The question is what does the future hold.

And it is pretty certain that a big downturn is in our future.

The question is when.

So, Mr. 20/20 hindsight.

What is the investment strategy for now

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071119.htm

The intent of the Strategic Growth Fund is to outperform the S&P 500 over the complete market cycle, with smaller drawdowns than a buy-and-hold approach.

Since HSGFX inception date:

HSGFX: -45%

S&P 500: +162%

Epic fail.

Not aboot dat wrote:

Mioplio wrote:

And the DOW has more than doubled since that time. Your point?

We all know what has happened on the past.

The question is what does the future hold.

And it is pretty certain that a big downturn is in our future.

The question is when.

So, Mr. 20/20 hindsight.

What is the investment strategy for now

Since reading comprehension doesn't appear to be your strong point, why don't you go back and read what he was responding to and you will understand the context of his remark, which was appropriate within the discussion he was engaged in.