Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

L’Oncle wrote:

Of course it does. Don’t be stupid.

Talking about investors as a class. How else at a market high you get a 20 year index return of 5%? Investors far less.

So now you’re saying timing DOES matter. You came to your senses.

The start of the tape for Igy... wrote:

Igy wrote on page 1778, in commenting on the idiot’s naive statistical analysis:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:...a more likely scenario would be the lower end of your range with a high probability of 1,100 by 2021.

Sure, but no bet.

L’Oncle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Talking about investors as a class. How else at a market high you get a 20 year index return of 5%? Investors far less.

So now you’re saying timing DOES matter. You came to your senses.

No, you are to dumb to understand.

Are you welcoming on our bet? I framed the bet around your prediction and you accepted it, as the record shows from your own bumping of my comments on page 1780.

Welching not welcoming... damn autocorrect!

The idiot wrote:

Are you welcoming on our bet? I framed the bet around your prediction and you accepted it, as the record shows from your own bumping of my comments on page 1780.

The idiot,

No welching, just getting the chain of banter accurate. Correction, in plain text you offered both the time “year” and level “1500” and I accepted.

Regards,

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

L’Oncle wrote:

So now you’re saying timing DOES matter. You came to your senses.

No, you are to dumb to understand.

“To” dumb? You just earned that badge.

“too” oh you are certified brilliant

Ok Igy,

If you prefer, since no money is changing hands anyway and it’s only dignity on the line, instead of my generous wager we can instead use your prediction (1100 by 2021) as the baseline. I like the odds against that possibility way better than the scenario I offered in our wager.

The idiot,

Now you are welching. A bet is a bet. Besides you said your odds have increased. I said they decreased. Let’s see.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

“Having a bad time” is different from “having bad timing”.

Those who sold before the crash had great timing; those who sold low had the worst timing, and those who held long enough exercised no timing with respect to that event.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

Just wanted to mention that today the Dow went UP again, and now with the USMCA in the bag it's gonna keep going up for a while. Mods please fix the title.

Over time, the Dow tends to go up. It's an up-going thing, mostly.

(5x + (lim n-> inf) 2x^3 1:3-64) {e:85}/(blah blah blah)

Over time it's an UP GOING MACHINE. Look at the charts.

Very simply, it goes down once every 35 years or so, and the last time was 12 years ago. It's going UP.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Except it has gone down over 50% twice in the last 20 years.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

(5x + (lim n-> inf) 2x^3 1:3-64) {e:85}/(blah blah blah)

Over time it's an UP GOING MACHINE. Look at the charts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati wrote:

“Having a bad time” is different from “having bad timing”.

Those who sold before the crash had great timing; those who sold low had the worst timing, and those who held long enough exercised no timing with respect to that event.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLeeJr/status/1207764098341113857/photo/1

This chart shows the importance of being invested in equities.

My do-nothing b&h is now up just shy of 12% since mid/late April.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You like others, try to pin me to a time, and I just throw out a date.

Igy

That's because you don't have a clue.

The one thing we do know, positioning yourself 10 years in advance and still waiting, not a smart move.

You've not been alone in your thinking, just the only one claiming it's been spot on.

I hope people have been joking on here about you being an advisor.