Frightened Inmate # 5 wrote:
Also, where have I even implied the BAA was involved in any "conspiracy" ?
So who paid them off Sherlock? C'mon, lets crack the case.
They (whoever you think that is?) paid off a bunch of African runners to let the US runner that used to live in Africa win so a handful of geeks could jump up and down in the US.
The truth is that outside of our little fishbowl few people really care that a US runner won.
The story was that the race went off without another attack.
Frightened Inmate # 5 wrote:
I've simply stuck to the facts, unlike you and Trollie who seem to be letting your pride in Mebs great run override clear thinking.
I personally don't have any particular pride in Meb's run. I'm mostly just offended by all the craziness. And if you honestly think that "analysis" you posted above is an example of "clear thinking," you need to go back to school.
People do not realize who Chebet is
He won Amsterdam 3yrs in a row. Rotterdam once. He has won his last 4 marathons. This guy is the shit and does not have excuses. He wins....all.the.time
He closes in 6:40 or faster off fast paces. But for some reason could not do better than 6:52? BS.
http://evenementen.uitslagen.nl/2012/amsterdammarathon/index-en.html
He might be some no name Kenyan to most Americans but he is top 10 in the world. He does not have bad days.
Americans are used to psycho babble from athletes smoking bibles and praising the flying spaghetti monster. In the real world there is Wilson Chebet. He was paid to throw a 2nd rate race for a bunch of yahoos.
Frightened Inmate # 5 wrote:
I think it's relevant to my point that Boston was EASY this year -
I read that and I laughed, and I laughed, and I laughed, and I laughed. Did they remove the Newton Hills this year or something?
I don't think weather is the only factor that determines the difficulty of the Boston course. But I've only run it once, so what do I know.
Oh well, carry on. I'm getting a kick out of some of these silly posts. That is as long as you stay safely tucked away in your collective basements. Once you start crawling out into the real world, then I'll start getting worried.
Boston was easy this year.... Love it. An all time classic.
Remember that scene in the Pre movie where Pre is all alone out front, and then you have a wide pack of guys all spread out 80 yards behind him?
yeah, it was like that.
Using PR comparisons on either Boston or the New York courses is probably not a good way to justify a fix argument. This isn't Dubai (or London), its not a 26.2 mile track race, there are no pacers and without the tailwind its a tough course. The downhill to the low point at Route 128 is essentially in three fairly steep drops, with the last one (Rodgers' favorite) at the old Grossman's in Newton Lower Falls being perhaps the steepest. Its not like its a gentle grade. Then, after the 4 climbs (including the hospital hill) there is another steep drop down to the BC T stop that has taken the legs of many a top runner. That's nice that 2:07 is jogging for Canova's group but only 7 runners have ever broken 2:07 in the history of the race and 6 of those performances were in 2011 and the 7th was what was perceived at the time as a historic effort by Cheriuyot in 2010. Also in 2011, while the men were crushing the record the women were over a minute slower than Okayo's mark despite 3 ladies pretty much going at it for the last 5-6 miles, indicating its completely plausible that one race can be very fast and the other doesn't have to be. In 2013 Micah Kogo (2:06.56 PB) went out in 64ish with the leaders and was outkicked on Boylston (despite "superior" track speed) for 2nd in 2:10. This year he ran 64ish again and then blew up at the end losing a full minute to Abdi from 40k onward for 2:17. Both Ibrahim Hussein and Cosmas NDeti, both multi-time winners, have DNF'd on the course as defending champions. These things happen.
There are certainly topics worthy of discussion on this thread (not that I believe them necessarily, but this a discussion forum about running after all), including whether you think Chebet deliberately slowed down at the end or not. I was certainly pleasantly surprised watching it live that Meb didn't get caught. Nevertheless, the PB argument isn't very conclusive.
The weirdest Boston Marathon races remain either the Rosie Ruiz marathon or the rainy year (1987) where the majority of the top wheelchair racers crashed into each other in the first mile.
Excellent homework ConspiracyTheorist, I was waiting for something like this. That really is nearly completely off the charts of probability.
I'll throw in also that, the easy first half for the fastest runners means they should have been totally gassed up for the second and been able to negative split. A lot of course records and PBs have been set by negative splitting Boston. Most all of the Africans in contention Monday should have negative split.
Bastille Day at the TDF wrote:
Today was the equivalent of "it's July 14 so the French guy wins it if he earns it." All it took was a handful of athletes to make that decision and to leave town with their appearance fees fresh for their next race. And with their second and third place prize money.
Everything else is thinking way too hard (or the opposite).
This happens in cycling, where there are what, 15-20 other races for glory and money ("livelihood") in the same stage-race alone?
This doesn't happen in marathoning, where there are what, 1-2 other races for glory and money ("livelihood") in the same calendar year?
exhausted wrote:
So who paid them off Sherlock? C'mon, lets crack the case.
They (whoever you think that is?) paid off a bunch of African runners to let the US runner that used to live in Africa win so a handful of geeks could jump up and down in the US.
The truth is that outside of our little fishbowl few people really care that a US runner won.
Gee, Sherlock. I wonder if there's any money to be made from feel good sports stories, race promotions, gear sales, etc. Heck, maybe one or two companies (or a thousand) would consider sponsoring some aspect of Boston Marathon.
I was genuinely shocked when I heard an American had won.....particularly THIS year.
troofiness wrote:
redux wrote:The East Africans have finally started to overtrain because the doping controls are working.
Just the men
Chebet ran 1:32 for 30k downhill....training pace. Then he did 30-40k in 29:30 - his PB pace. Got to 40k within 7 seconds of a struggling 3:15/km Meb and....Chebet goes from 2:55/km to 3:15. He cud have blown by Meb but nope....another 2.2km at his regular race pace is too much. He also doesn't start crawling at 3;30 pace. He just keeps drifting at 3:15 pace.
...because of course there are no hills in Kenya so there is no way he could have trained for this, right?
Chebet took his foot off the gas at 40. Why, we do not know. But he eased up. That is obvious.
I'd like to see a similar analysis for the guy in third place too. On TV it looked like he did the exact same thing as Chebet. The odds of both guys slowing to Meb's pace and just coasting it out seems really low in a normal race.
BillCarr wrote:
Using PR comparisons on either Boston or the New York courses is probably not a good way to justify a fix argument. This isn't Dubai (or London), its not a 26.2 mile track race, there are no pacers and without the tailwind its a tough course. The downhill to the low point at Route 128 is essentially in three fairly steep drops, with the last one (Rodgers' favorite) at the old Grossman's in Newton Lower Falls being perhaps the steepest. Its not like its a gentle grade. Then, after the 4 climbs (including the hospital hill) there is another steep drop down to the BC T stop that has taken the legs of many a top runner. That's nice that 2:07 is jogging for Canova's group but only 7 runners have ever broken 2:07 in the history of the race and 6 of those performances were in 2011 and the 7th was what was perceived at the time as a historic effort by Cheriuyot in 2010. Also in 2011, while the men were crushing the record the women were over a minute slower than Okayo's mark despite 3 ladies pretty much going at it for the last 5-6 miles, indicating its completely plausible that one race can be very fast and the other doesn't have to be. In 2013 Micah Kogo (2:06.56 PB) went out in 64ish with the leaders and was outkicked on Boylston (despite "superior" track speed) for 2nd in 2:10. This year he ran 64ish again and then blew up at the end losing a full minute to Abdi from 40k onward for 2:17. Both Ibrahim Hussein and Cosmas NDeti, both multi-time winners, have DNF'd on the course as defending champions. These things happen.
There are certainly topics worthy of discussion on this thread (not that I believe them necessarily, but this a discussion forum about running after all), including whether you think Chebet deliberately slowed down at the end or not. I was certainly pleasantly surprised watching it live that Meb didn't get caught. Nevertheless, the PB argument isn't very conclusive.
The weirdest Boston Marathon races remain either the Rosie Ruiz marathon or the rainy year (1987) where the majority of the top wheelchair racers crashed into each other in the first mile.
It's unfortunate that so much of the discussion on this site is about abstract analyses like whether the PBs are within some normal range. The most glaring fact is that an American hasn't won Boston for 31 years, and coincidentally it happens in the year when everyone happens to be clamoring for a feel good Boston story. Even my grandma knows that's suspicious, no PB analysis needed. And then you take it a step further and just watch the race. It was weird from beginning to end - the weird slow breakaway and the sudden simultaneous fade by Chebet and his compatriot in third place. It was plain to see on TV - the announcer even said it out loud. My grandma can detect that weirdness too, no PB analysis necessary.
Trollie McSockpuppet wrote:
Even more amusingly, you can repeat your break down with last year's race and get even more divergent results. The top 10 of the 2013 Boston Marathon included six East Africans and three Americans. I'll present them as you did, starting with the East Africans:
Desisa ETH +5:37
Kogo KEN +3:31
Gebremariam ETH +5:35
Korir KEN +6:17
Geneti ETH +7:50
Chumba KEN +8:22
And here are the three Americans in the top 10:
Hartmann USA +1:06 (PB Chicago)
Tapia USA -:58
Leon USA +:58 (PB Chicago)
Judged by your metric (Boston race time compared to PB), the discrepancy between the East Africans and the Americans was wider in 2013 than it was in 2014. So I guess it's even more likely that the 2013 race was fixed?
Trollie, you are right (lol@"proof" of "bizarre" 2014 race), but why are you even wasting your time with these whack-jobs? They're either trolling or retarded. Either way it's a waste of time.
I wish everyone would stop dignifying this idiocy with responses.
asdfasdf wrote:
troofiness wrote:Just the men
Chebet ran 1:32 for 30k downhill....training pace. Then he did 30-40k in 29:30 - his PB pace. Got to 40k within 7 seconds of a struggling 3:15/km Meb and....Chebet goes from 2:55/km to 3:15. He cud have blown by Meb but nope....another 2.2km at his regular race pace is too much. He also doesn't start crawling at 3;30 pace. He just keeps drifting at 3:15 pace.
...because of course there are no hills in Kenya so there is no way he could have trained for this, right?
Chebet took his foot off the gas at 40. Why, we do not know. But he eased up. That is obvious.
I'd like to see a similar analysis for the guy in third place too. On TV it looked like he did the exact same thing as Chebet. The odds of both guys slowing to Meb's pace and just coasting it out seems really low in a normal race.
Chebet
First 30k ran 2:10-2:11 pace
From 30-35k dropped to 2:09 pace
From 35-40k dropped to 2:02 pace (a 14:29 5k).
At which point he was within 8 seconds of Meb after a blistering 5k...then sort of dazed off the last 2.25k back to 2:08 pace (which Meb had been running) and chilled.
I'm not sure how someone in 2nd's strategy (assuming you're going for the win) is to run 70% of the race and let your opponent get a 1:21 lead on you...then with 19% of the race left think it's time to just hammer a 5k. Catch the guy with 5% of the race left...and then just chill.
Even if he thought he'd "reel" Meb back in, the way to do that is to drop a 14:29 5k in the second half? Not to slowly eat away at his lead? I can understand dropping a blazing 5k to break people you're racing. Which is why I'm assuming him and Chepkwony were racing for second. But if you're back of someone at half and thinking of negative splitting...how do you wait another 10k after the half point and let Meb's lead grow 23 more seconds...before you think it's time to start to "reel" him back in. That's like waiting till the last second and then trying to spin the reel as fast as you possibly can to hope you pull the fish in with the time that's left.
Just doesn't make sense strategy wise.
ConspiracyTheorist wrote:
I'm not sure how someone in 2nd's strategy (assuming you're going for the win) is to run 70% of the race and let your opponent get a 1:21 lead on you...
Okay... You realize they aren't watching themselves on TV like we are, they have no clue how many mm:ss behind the lead they are or how Meb looks.
But anyways, 10/10, this was a fabulous effort.
Buy a Clue? wrote:
Trollie, you are right (lol@"proof" of "bizarre" 2014 race), but why are you even wasting your time with these whack-jobs? They're either trolling or retarded. Either way it's a waste of time.
I wish everyone would stop dignifying this idiocy with responses.
And yet more substance from the no conspiracy crowd.
I mean, if calling your opponent a "whack-job" is not a convincing argument, what in the world would be?
HardLoper wrote:
ConspiracyTheorist wrote:I'm not sure how someone in 2nd's strategy (assuming you're going for the win) is to run 70% of the race and let your opponent get a 1:21 lead on you...
Okay... You realize they aren't watching themselves on TV like we are, they have no clue how many mm:ss behind the lead they are or how Meb looks.
But anyways, 10/10, this was a fabulous effort.
ConspiracyTheorist has totally won this thread. It's a great trolling performance. He keeps writing obviously ridiculous things and still gets all these morons to respond. I also like how in the recent post he ignores the hills in the second half of the Boston course, as if the race was run on a treadmill.
He even adopts a troll name, calling himself a "Conspiracy Theorist" (obviously making fun of conspiracy theorists), and all you tools still rush in to "correct" his intentionally outrageous conspiracy theories.
Can you really win something on this f'ing s-hole?
If anyone cares for an insightful, educated analysis check out Toni Reavis' post:
http://tonireavis.com/2014/04/23/2014-boston-analysis/#more-10687
While I'm sure he doesn't give a sh*t about the drivel being spouted here, he pretty much debunks all the crazy "facts" used by the "theorists" claiming conspiracy.
Nothing that remarkable about how the men's marathon went down at Boston, other than Meb's great tactical and physical effort being rewarded with a victory.
If you want to continue following the garbage here, there's no helping you.
It's obvious the elite runners let Meb and Boit go because neither were considered a threat to win. The elite runners were watching each other, prepared to cover any move between them, with no one making the first move. They played this waiting game a little too long.
Like all of his other victories, Meb ran well, and got lucky. The Boston field wasn't that deep (compared to London for example), the two favorites DNF'd and Chebet started the chase too late.
As incredible as this scenario might be, it is less credible that the field was bribed, or allowed Meb to win on purpose.