D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Without looking at the numbers, I guess Jane Hedengren is getting a 14:45 TiC rating after this weekend. She would be a huge favorite to win the nationals this year.

Lacctic has today's results loaded. The Big12 is currently "unstable." Jane might have broke it.

14:42

It gave her a 14:42 for that!😮 Her Rating now is 14:52.👀

NC State’s 5th & 6th are now both rated under 15:50.

Today's TiCs

14:42 Hedengren
15:18 Chamberlain
15:46 Roberts
15:47 Lovell
15:49 Macchia

15:24 Napoleon
15:27 Hartman
15:33 Gapes
15:42 Michalak
15:50 Engelhardt

15:27 Cherotich
15:39 Cherubet
15:40 Ayyildiz
15:47 Frias
15:58 Barnett

The ducks are ready, their course was tougher than nationals course and two were back from world championships just getting warmed up. Haven’t peaked yet. We all know the peak ends at conference. They’ll get better. Ducks wins this.

So my impression that nc st 4 would have been ahead of byu 3 was validated by laactic....

This leads me to believe that BYU is the one to beat, not NC State.

Taking the conf champ TiC's for ALL (where available) and scoring (eyeballing "ties") I get

nc st 104 (8/13/18/26/39)

byu 112 (1/5/33/35/38)

or 141 (13/21/23/35/49)

Hutchins would likely be a big boost to byu

but clearly there is very easily a +/- 5 point placement for all but the top several even if all run well.

1 Jane Hedengren BYU 14:42
2 Doris Lemngole Alabama 15:17
3 Pamela Kosgei New Mexico 15:17
4 Joy Naukot West Virginia 15:17
5 Riley Chamberlain BYU 15:18
6 Isca Chelangat Oklahoma State 15:22
7 Rosemary Longisa Washington St. 15:23
8 Angelina Napoleon NC State 15:24
9 Silvia Jelego Clemson 15:25
10 Mary Bonner-Dalton Notre Dame 15:25
11 Mercyline Kirwa Iowa State 15:25
12 Grace Hartman NC State 15:27
13 Diana Cherotich Oregon 15:27
14 Betty Kipkore Iowa State 15:27
15 Mercy Kibet Iowa State 15:28
16 Judy Chepkoech Florida 15:29
17 Caren Kiplagat Alabama 15:29
18 Hannah Gapes NC State 15:33
19 Vera Sjoberg North Carolina 15:38
20 Cynthia Jemutai Alabama 15:38
21 Juliet Cherubet Oregon 15:39
22 Salma Elbadra South Carolina 15:40
23 Monica Wanjiku Missouri 15:40
24 Silan Ayyildiz Oregon 15:40
25 Sophia Kennedy Stanford 15:42
26 Bethany Michalak NC State 15:42
27 Florence Caron Penn State 15:43
28 Mercy Kinyanjui West Virginia 15:43
29 Hilda Olemomoi Florida 15:44
30 Angelina Perez Wake Forest 15:44
31 Maureen Rutoh Oklahoma State 15:44
32 Tia Wilson Florida 15:46
33 Nelah Roberts BYU 15:46
34 Mary Ogwoka Tennessee 15:47
35 Dalia Frias Oregon 15:47
36 Taylor Lovell BYU 15:47
37 Rachel Forsyth Michigan State 15:48
38 Zariel Machia BYU 15:49
39 Sadie Engelhardt NC State 15:50
40 Maelle Porcher Iowa State 15:51
41 Zenah Cheptoo Washington St. 15:53
42 Emily Bryce West Virginia 15:53
43 Ana Peters Utah 15:53
44 Brooke Rauber NC State 15:54
45 Carmen Alder BYU 15:54
46 Erin Vringer Utah 15:56
47 Desma Chepkoech Florida 15:56
48 Amaya Aramini Notre Dame 15:58
49 Sydney Thorvaldson Arkansas 15:58
50 Mia Barnett Oregon 15:58
51 Edna Chepkemoi LSU 16:00
52 Anika Thompson Oregon 16:00
53 Siona Chisholm Notre Dame 16:02
54 Charlotte Costich Penn State 16:02
55 Taylor Rohatinsky BYU 16:09
56 Marion Jepngetich New Mexico 16:17
57 Kate Putman NC State 16:31
58 Rylee Blade Florida State 16:38

As the starter of the thread, my question to you is why do you feel the need to lie and troll?

One of the main points of this thread was to dive into (primarily LACCTiC’s) simulations, which helped in understanding it better. But if one gets emotional and doesn’t look at the data objectively, they possibly may end up not only cheating themselves, and the positive benefits they can derive, but they then could hurt others by lying and spreading falsehoods. So please, take that stuff to other threads, and let’s try to keep this thread analytically objective. I know you can do better.

Oregon and BYU, according to LACCTiC are very close, and it is resulting in a something interesting going on with LACCTiC. It puts out a slightly different result when you toggle between the Ratings and Simulation button. In one case BYU is placed in 2nd, and Oregon is placed in 2nd in the other.

One of LACCTiC’s objectives is to take into account differences in course difficulty.

When you click Division I Women From the home page, here is the order, with their Top 5 average rating:
1 NC State 15:30 (15:13 - 15:49)
2 BYU 15:34 (14:52- 15:54)
3 Oregon 15:38 (15:22 - 15:53)
4 Florida 15:44 (15:27 - 16:08)

Then, when you click the SIMULATE/RANK
DIVISION I button, you get there projected scores:
1 NC State 96
2 Oregon 155
3 BYU 164
4 Florida 228

But then when you click the SIMULATION button, Oregon and BYU are swapped in the order:
Team ……..Place ? ….Score ….Win %
NC State….(1)….. …(84-116)…..97%
BYU………..(2-3)…..(141-185)……2%
Oregon……(2-3)…..(142-190)……1%
Florida……(4- 5)…..(204 - 265)…..0%

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Here is a comment from a Wolfpack forum out on the web:

“LACCTiC ACC championship rating as follows:
Name……..….Time…….LACCTic
1. Napoleon..19:14…..15:24
2. Hartman….19:17…..15:27
3. Gapes………19:24…..15:33
4. Michalak….19:35…..15:42
5. Engelhardt.19:46…..15:50
Average LACCTic……15:35
The 15:35 rating places us in 2nd behind BYU's 15:28 and ahead of Oregon's 15:42. GO PACK!”

To think that data places BYU first is evidence of misunderstanding how cross country is scored.

Yeah! This is why I love the simulations (even though XCRI disparages them).

1) BYU would be the favorite if cross country was a relay.

2) In a nationals field, NC state’s depth overcomes BYU’s top end and makes them the favorite. BYU and Oregon follow.

3) In the simulations, which take into account individual variation, BYU performs better than Oregon. This is because of BYUs strong 6th runner. If everyone runs as expected, the 6th runner doesn’t matter and Oregon is better. If anyone falters, BYU’s team is more robust. This is especially critical at the top end: All Americans have a lot more downside (a bad day adds 50 points) than upside (a good day improves 10 points).

NC State, BYU, Oregon, Notre Dame and Florida seem to be the main podium contenders with NC State and BYU likely co favorites. It will all come down to what team as a better day on the day. LACCTIC is super interesting but the margins are so thin that it is very hard to predict. One thing we know is that one of these seems will likely not perform as expected. They have all gone about it in different ways: Florida with international recruits en masse, Oregon with strategic international recruits to manage the perception that they are internationally driven (yet their key athletes are international), NC State with elite domestic recruits and the same for BYU and Notre Dame. Interestingly, there is only one high academic school in Notre Dame demonstrating how hard it is to be elite athletically and academically. Course load at Notre Dame and BYU is probably significantly more draining on these athletes than at the other schools. These are all factors headed into the final stages of the season. NC State, Oregon and Florida will close the season fresher due to less academic drain. This is probably a bigger factor than indistinguishable LACCTIC ratings

I dont want to derail the thread but the order in which you perceive these school's academic level in your head is hilarious.