UK stocks have to be good value.
UK stocks have to be good value.
Now a Coach wrote:
UK stocks have to be good value.
I recommend BP.
Thank you to everyone that keeps contributing to this threads. I've learned a lot about investing. Just wanted to stop by and say I really appreciate you guys.
On average since 1926, the stock market has reached an all time high every 18 days.
look out below - risky assets plunging again
what is going on here? I don't 'get' this dip - what is causing it?
seems that politics is disruptive sure - ukraine, iraq, china, change of party in the US senate.
But come on - have some guts people.
agip wrote:
what is going on here? I don't 'get' this dip - what is causing it?
Resistance in the low 17,000's.
I think that a lack of confidence is causing it.
And I think that lack of confidence is warranted.
Down 28 today to 17,043
Not a significant drop by itself, but the index does seem to be ratcheting down, if slowly. Down about 55 overall in Sept.
This is a market that obviously hasn't made up its mind about anything, about any particular direction, one way or the other.
This dip is like something having reached its level of neutral buoyancy, not going one way or the other, and just varying about its position as it follows local ebb and flood.
I, for one, am still watching, patiently.
DJIA closes Q3 at 17,043, up 2.8% YTD. I said earlier in this thread that I could see 3% per quarter in Q2 and Q3, which might be pretty much right on including dividends (agip any idea what they have been on DJIA for Q2 & Q3?).
I'm calling victory on that score, but that wasn't the important prediction, it was only a predicate to the more important prediction, of a significant correction, you might even think of it as a crash, in Q4 or Q1 2015.
We are entering times of real uncertainty, and it is beginning to show as cracks in market confidence.
I just wish things would hurry up and crash, but it looks like it will take a while. Also, it looks like the crash may just be a correction, at least at first--but a 10-15% drop would be terrific for me, and is something I would consider a buying opportunity, depending on other factors, for certain stocks/sectors.
But having said that, I wouldn't be in any hurry. My next prediction is that after whatever correction we do have, there will not be a very quick recovery. I think there will be continued waffling, and money inflows/outflows even themselves out. I think individual stocks will do very well, while others will tank, leading to a bifurcation, yet leaving the aggregate index fairly static.
This last prediction, I don't know. I can't articulate at the moment why I feel that way, so unlike the others, it is not even an educated guess. Just a feeling.
October has been a traditionally volatile month. Currently there's no way to know if or in which direction the market will lurch. Investors are hedging.
OMG! The Dow is nearing 2% below its all time high. The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Rice Delman wrote:
On average since 1926, the stock market has reached an all time high every 18 days.
How often has it reached all time lows on average?
Chicken Little wrote:
OMG! The Dow is nearing 2% below its all time high. The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
stocks other than US blue chips have been suffering much more - the rest of the world is down around 8%, and many categories much worse than that.
You aren't seeing the true damage to stocks if you look just at the SP 500 or Dow.
Obvious Question 2 wrote:
Rice Delman wrote:On average since 1926, the stock market has reached an all time high every 18 days.
How often has it reached all time lows on average?
Over the last century plus, once every 118 years or so.
Fact checker wrote:
Obvious Question 2 wrote:How often has it reached all time lows on average?
Over the last century plus, once every 118 years or so.
I have my doubts. First, you need to start from 1926 - records before then are pretty spotty. Are you suggesting that the market went below its starting point once and then never again went below this new low?
The DJIA began in 1896.
DJIA down around 140 in early trading on Wednesday.
More noise in the form of a not-particularly-meaningful "jobs report".
Hopefully this price erosion will continue. This has been like a slow motion correction. Like agip said, the ROW isn't very rosy at the moment. The ROW, from what I hear, is actually looking to the USA for leadership on certain fronts that are viewed as critical to stability and investment.
Again, who knows how the day will end, but it begins with some promise.
Fact checker wrote:
The DJIA began in 1896.
The DJIA is not the stock market.
Again, we have pretty solid records for the US stock market since 1926.
Further, you have avoided the larger part of the question.
US small caps now down 10% from their highs - official correction there.
US Large caps nothing like that - down just 3.6%
Europe and emerging markets down 10-11%
weird how it is hard (for me anyway) to pinpoint a reason for this correction. Global instability? Aren't we inured to that now? And if that is it, why is oil falling too?
Does the lack of an obvious reason mean this correction is more serious or less serious?
agip, it's profit-taking, pure and simple.
Do you even remember 2013? +30%. Ridiculous.
I got out as soon as I knew those year-end figures, some people have waited a bit longer, to see how much more they could squeeze.
There was no good justification for that 30% in 2013--none whatsoever. It was driven by funny money, especially QE effects and margin.
10% for that year would have been absolutely terrific, so let's go with that as a reasonable fulfilment of what are essentially unreasonable expectations of return. Tack 5% onto that for this year in total, and you are left with a 15% over-pricing.
And I'm talking relative to year-end 2013 numbers, or very early 2014 numbers.
And that's just the baseline, disregarding what has happened this year, and if 5% would be reasonable to expect for 2014, which it certainly may not be.
My prediction was that the markets could float these levels until the end of Q3, which they have, and which was, really, a very long time. Once they got out of Q1 with decent-looking numbers, they were on auto-pilot while the weather was nice. Now that the weather is turning, people are finally thinking that it's time to get some hay into the barn.
I think it could be as simple as that. If you combine that with what some see as weak fundamentals, a type of sell-off is no surprise.
Things could, and probably will, rock back-and-forth a bit right now, and I still don't think it's a good general buying opportunity. There is still good room for more profit-taking.
Down 218 so far on the day, to 16,825
We all know that only a fool would put long term investment funds into the stock market.
Carnac wrote:
We all know that only a fool would put long term investment funds into the stock market...
...since the stock market has proven to be the top long term investment.