Update after week 5
Mimi Anderson did 1982.7 miles in five weeks.
Sandra Villines did 1712.6 miles in 31 days
Mimi Anderson 56.6 miles/day Estimate for New York 50 days October 26th
Sandra Villines 55.2 miles/day Estimate for New York 56 days Nov 5th
Here is an comparison
Here is a map from 10/11/17
Markus something is not quite right with Mimi's estimated distance run. I was able to download Mimi's planned route from the link below. She is in-between miles 1938 and 1939. She needs another 44 miles to reach the end.
The way I got the planned route was by downloading a KML file and loading into Google Earth. Other download option are available such as GPX. Chose markers to download to see the mile markers along her route.
MIMI BETWEEN MILES 1938-1939
MIMI'S ROUTE SOURCE:
Markus wrote:
Update after week 5
Mimi Anderson did 1982.7 miles in five weeks.
Sandra Villines did 1712.6 miles in 31 days
Mimi Anderson 56.6 miles/day Estimate for New York 50 days October 26th
Sandra Villines 55.2 miles/day Estimate for New York 56 days Nov 5th
Good info, thanks.
For your New York estimates, I think you should include an estimate based on their most recent X days of running, rather than their overall average since day 1. That would paint a different picture (and a more accurate one IMHO) for both runners.
Sandy? wrote:
Markus wrote:Update after week 5
Mimi Anderson did 1982.7 miles in five weeks.
Sandra Villines did 1712.6 miles in 31 days
Mimi Anderson 56.6 miles/day Estimate for New York 50 days October 26th
Sandra Villines 55.2 miles/day Estimate for New York 56 days Nov 5th
Good info, thanks.
For your New York estimates, I think you should include an estimate based on their most recent X days of running, rather than their overall average since day 1. That would paint a different picture (and a more accurate one IMHO) for both runners.
They seem to both be headed to finishing in 53 days based on recent mileages (last 4-7 days). And adding in Mimi's extra 44 miles that were run somewhere along the way but are not on the planned route.
Markus wrote:
Update after week 5
Mimi Anderson did 1982.7 miles in five weeks.
Sandra Villines did 1712.6 miles in 31 days
Mimi Anderson 56.6 miles/day Estimate for New York 50 days October 26th
Sandra Villines 55.2 miles/day Estimate for New York 56 days Nov 5th
Average daily miles, past 7 days (per Strava):
Mimi Anderson 53.8 miles/day
Sandra Villines 60.2 miles/day
Regarding the estimates:
I am just projecting the average overall mileage towards the end.
It is now pretty obvious that Mimi Anderson is in some trouble. Her run could be even over soon.
But the same is true for Sandy. Her 60 mile pushes could be (not have to be) very dangerous. Since Sandy does not have a wealth of ultrarunning experience, she probably has not seen what it means when you push to hard.
The risk Sandy Villines is taking right now is pretty high for not too much of a reward. She might be a little faster but she also might get shin splints and/or a fracture and the race might be over.
In the Trans Australia race top Japanse runner (and RAAM finisher) Kaname Sakurai pushed to hard to keep his 3rd place while having an injury and lost it all. He had to abandon the race just a couple of days before Canberra.
A Trans Con is a long haul and you have to make it over the whole distance. So I would strongly advise against pushing too hard.
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:
Baffled wrote:The racedrone didn't work well for the first two weeks but it did work. As did the Strava data which though you have shown can be scammed you haven't shown was. Or in fact tampered with in any way. There's photos and fb posts along the way too.
So what's not convincing to you is subjective. You've already made up your mind and are making everything else fit into your already formed judgement.
Making things up in other words.
'oh she stopped at a hospital, must have been for a cortisone injection!'
Mimi and her team have still not owned up to their outright lies about what they did to their Race Drone trackers.
The Strava data in terms of the cadence does not match up with what we see Mimi doing in the few short videos they have posted on Facebook. Nowhere is Mimi doing 180 spm and then there is also the highly questionable accuracy of her Strava / Movescount data now that I've downloaded some of them and see 200-500 spm on a frequent basis.
And Mimi and her team are still ignoring my emails requesting non-stop video evidence of Mimi running from the first two weeks. They are completely not transparent. We see Mimi having great difficulty simply getting up and down a few RV steps without assistance yet we are suppose to believe she was flying up and down the mountains.
Fairly obvious what's going on, everything is being saved for the post event UK release of the film, book, media articles, fluff magazines, social media fluff, etc, etc. It's probably all in the process of being compiled right now and regardless of what happens it'll be presented as a glorious victory or a glorious defeat, win, win either way.
Oh yeah, and that "Mimi having great difficulty simply getting up and down a few RV steps without assistance" will be put to great use, probably with violins playing in the background.
Bitter little twat aren't you?
Didums wrote:
Bitter little twat aren't you?
Get some sleep Tim.
Markus, I don't think you can just look at daily mileage and make conclusions about "pushing too hard." And, along those lines, why do you label her recent 60+ mile days a "push"? Couldn't it just be she has been giving a consistent daily effort from the very beginning? She has kept her daily "time on feet" to 13-14 hours, with very little variation throughout.
I would attribute the recent uptick in mileage to (1) the fact the weather is now perfect for running (50s-60s with no rain, as opposed to the heat of California, and the cold/blizzard conditions of Utah/Colorado); (2) the flat terrain of Big 10 Country (i.e., Nebraska and the "Three Eyes" she is about to reach (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana), as opposed to the climb in Yosemite and up and over the Rocky Mtns., and (3) the warm outpouring of support she's receiving in Nebraska (yesterday, about 15 runners met her in Center City, and she's had people drop in all across the state . . . I'm sure you know how much that can help!).
Rest-assured, Sandy is being advised the whole way by the absolute best in the business (i.e., the World Record Holder (Pete) and the Masters' Record Holder (Marsh))!
While, yes, Sandy is relatively-new to the sport of ultrarunning, she's accomplished a lot in the past two years, highlighted by her win at Badwater this year, against -- easily -- the best women's field ever assembled at the race. (Look up the career of Szilvia Lubics for proof of that fact...)
I told you guys near the beginning of this quest that Sandy was going to surprise a LOT of people out there. I would not bet against her.
Dave, I can only look at numbers. I don't have any detailed info how Sandy is feeling. But I noticed that she tries to keep her runs under 14 hours which is good for recovery if these are not achieved by too hard of pushing during the day.
However, there are still a lot of miles to cover.
What is very obvious by now is that Mimi started out too fast. After the first week her averages are steady declining and yesterday she had to visit a hospital. There are long 17 days ahead of her.
From Mimi's Strava, you can see that she basically walked for the entire afternoon runs, both before and after the hospital visit, not much attempt at any running:
Zwitty wrote:
I told you guys near the beginning of this quest that Sandy was going to surprise a LOT of people out there. I would not bet against her.
I'm very impressed with Sandy Vi.
Marina is back to starting early:
Mimi Anderson
Oct 12, 2017 - 3:02:30 AM
Speed: 3.11 mph Course: ENE
Elevation: 495.57 ft.
Lat: 38.947380 Lon: -89.197698
I agree with this ~ wrote:
Zwitty wrote:I told you guys near the beginning of this quest that Sandy was going to surprise a LOT of people out there. I would not bet against her.
I'm very impressed with Sandy Vi.
Absolutely!
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:
From Mimi's Strava, you can see that she basically walked for the entire afternoon runs, both before and after the hospital visit, not much attempt at any running:
I seriously doubt she's running with any consistency, and probably not much at all.
There's something very strange going on with their data and reporting.
How about mornings wrote:
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:From Mimi's Strava, you can see that she basically walked for the entire afternoon runs, both before and after the hospital visit, not much attempt at any running:
I seriously doubt she's running with any consistency, and probably not much at all.
There's something very strange going on with their data and reporting.
I totally agree. I just downloaded Sandra's Oct 10, 2017 GPX file from Strava with cadence and it looks normal and like you would expect, with only a single cadence point above 200 spm at 236 spm. Contrast this to Mimi's Strava data I looked at yesterday that had her cadence from 200-515 spm at many places. There is something seriously wrong with the Movescount & Strava data Mimi and her team are providing. Not only do we not see any video showing Mimi running the cadences indicated in her data, but her cadence data she and her team provides is absolutely garbage.
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:
From Mimi's Strava, you can see that she basically walked for the entire afternoon runs, both before and after the hospital visit, not much attempt at any running
I don't know... the first of her activities that you linked to shows the same crazy alternation between 180 spm and 140 spm. So either she's alternating run/walk, or the cadence data is completely wrong.
I will always bet on the runner who is negative-splitting. Sandy is looking like someone who has found her groove, whereas Mimi has come off the rails.
OCT 12th:
Miles Done
Start Times: Sandy 3:07 AM / Mimi 3:03 AM
As of 7:25 AM: Sandy 20 / Mimi 17