Down goes the Dow

Up nearly 200. That Cramer guy is looking like a genius with his buy on the dip advice.

Maserati wrote:

The timing of these releases is everything, because everybody knows that the market responds, and how (in general). Am I suggesting that people are making money on this cycle by selective timing? Absolutely. These are the types of things that can manipulate a market, at least in the short term--which is long enough to make some bank.

Think about it--you have the DJIA right where you want it, after a dismal week of dropping below 17k, and the talking heads are beginning to talk about a "buying opportunity". It's laid out for you on a silver platter, all you need to do is to provide a scintilla of optimism to impel people to action.

BAM! All of a sudden the excellent growth figure appears.

How convenient. Now up 86 on the day.

I've lost any respect for you I had for your knowledge of the markets.

Why, because the market is up a bit today? That's as ridiculous as saying the sell suggestion would have been great a few days ago, because the market went down a bit. And, it's still down for the week.

agip, timing and foreknowledge are everything.

Maserati wrote:

Why, because the market is up a bit today? That's as ridiculous as saying the sell suggestion would have been great a few days ago, because the market went down a bit. And, it's still down for the week.

agip, timing and foreknowledge are everything.

More blusterous nonsense - pretty much a staple of the Wall Street crowd.

Keep it up!

agip wrote:

I'm still not optimistic that the dip is over - risky assets are lagging the blue chips - not much bargain hunting going on. I'd expect more selling next week.

But the thing is, it's a dip. Take a good look at the calendar. what month is it now? What month is it going to be on Wednesday? What normally happens in the market this time of the year?

That's why it's a good time to be a covered call seller, which I did the first market day after Labor Day, and which is my normal practice.

Yes, Virginia, there will be a January Effect. Right now is a good time for Bulls to hibernate.

Maserati wrote:

Why, because the market is up a bit today? That's as ridiculous as saying the sell suggestion would have been great a few days ago, because the market went down a bit. And, it's still down for the week.

agip, timing and foreknowledge are everything.

I think he was referring to the fact that you believe there is "selective timing" of market news releases when, in fact, the timing of those releases is determined well in advance.

Maserati wrote:

Why, because the market is up a bit today? That's as ridiculous as saying the sell suggestion would have been great a few days ago, because the market went down a bit. And, it's still down for the week.

agip, timing and foreknowledge are everything.

Selling at the beginning of the week and buying yesterday would have been rediculous advice to follow?

Shattered wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Why, because the market is up a bit today? That's as ridiculous as saying the sell suggestion would have been great a few days ago, because the market went down a bit. And, it's still down for the week.

agip, timing and foreknowledge are everything.

Selling at the beginning of the week and buying yesterday would have been rediculous advice to follow?

Nope. It would have been ridiculous.

If anybody is interested, here is the actual BEA report, that I have to go through this weekend:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2014/pdf/gdp2q14_3rd.pdf

Keep in mind the new GDP rules from 2013.

Nothing in the BEA report to suggest that the market is going to top any time soon--it looked that way after the first quarter only. If anything, the economy is appears to be accelerating. Of

Historically, a record high is much more likely to be followed by another record high than a correction.

The DJIA last "correction low" was Oct 2011, we have gone since then without the usual once-every-12-months 10% "correction".

And before you do it, YES, I know that this is evidence that tends to prove your point--however, stating the obvious because it seems like that's what increasingly needs to be done here, your point is not mutually exclusive with the point that historically, a bull market correction happens on average once every 12 months.

Apologies to anybody who cognates.

Down 78 early Monday, and fluctuating, could easily end the day positive.

Still need to go through that BEA report, I don't like the GDP number. The fact that the 2013 changes elevated it by about 3% speaks volumes. I don't like pension obligations being included--heck, I don't even like pension payouts being included, but they are part of a contract, sort of a deferred compensation if you will.

I understand the move to bring them forward to a time when they are actually earned, and thereby count future obligations now--but if that is the case, then current payouts shouldn't be included now. If they are (which I think they are), this is a totally bogus way to inflate the number, because the same amount is being counted twice.

If you want to claim that we are in a transitional period where future obligations are being included now as are current obligations because they weren't included in the past when they were actually earned, then that means that we are in a window of time where the numbers are bogusly inflated.

While I understand the logic of including future obligations now, I don't like it, because it is speculative. Nobody knows exactly how much will actually be paid out, and the room for error in the estimate is too great to make it of much worth IMO.

There are other problems with the calculation, too, I just have too much else to do at the moment.

Maserati wrote:

The DJIA last "correction low" was Oct 2011, we have gone since then without the usual once-every-12-months 10% "correction".

And before you do it, YES, I know that this is evidence that tends to prove your point--however, stating the obvious because it seems like that's what increasingly needs to be done here, your point is not mutually exclusive with the point that historically, a bull market correction happens on average once every 12 months.

Apologies to anybody who cognates.

Well, in that case, no apologies needed.

Go away POTO, I doubt that anybody here wants you around.

Go away POTO, I doubt that anybody here wants you around.

I said, GO AWAY.

I'm seeing a little nibbling on my screens here - I'm not going to call a bottom yet but some of the little stocks I treat as canaries in the coal mine perked up a little today.

And obviously a nice comeback for the big indices.

getting killed in emerging markets and europe tho. US blue chips are about the only show in town - that can't be good.

Unless they are massively gaining market share and sales, thereby increasing their intrinsic value.

More likely, it represents a flight to quality. There is actually nothing wrong with that, if you already own, and if the costs of ownership don't rise insanely.

You see this in many other markets as well. Take the real estate market, the top properties in the most desirable areas go up the most, while other market segments stagnate or actually fall, with the worst-of-the-worst losing even any speculative value they could have had. The worst-of-the-worst are picked up in liquidation for either disposal or turnaround/absorption, just as companies are. I'm not seeing a lot of de-listing going on, but in certain industry sectors there is still a lot of buying of smaller entities, which is one way the big guys grow--those properties are actually worth more in their hands than they were in the hands of the previous owners.

The higher you go in quality, the less real value you get. Consider RE again. At the top, nobody buys as an investment, they buy because they can, don't care about selling at a significant loss, and are positioned to absorb that loss. The top tends to be overpriced because it is as much about prestige, neighborhood, and security as it is about returns.

Obviously prices will rise when everybody wants in, which is what might be happening with blue chips. Bonds suck. Small-caps suck. Emergings suck. Europeans suck.

Heck, just talking about it is making me want to move into exclusively the blue-chip neighborhood when I get back in.

Of course there are many other dynamics at work, but I do think that this one is having an effect.

Down 42 today to 17,071, nothing really significant.