Down goes the Dow

Yeah agip, there is still room left in the run-up.

It is because “investors” are looking for pretty much anything these days that we are trying to identify m&a targets, which is difficult for publicly-traded stocks. It is one place where real gain in value could be achieved these days, and will be critical going forward.

It will also be interesting to see how much more money can be squeezed from the American consumer next year, and what will happen with credit levels.

And Igy: Macy’s! Lolololololol

Thanks to failures like Macy’s and JCP, TGT is up hugely this year. Already years ago, all Macy’s had left was their RE, and I wonder how that portfolio has done. Macy’s has been a joke for a long time, it is in there with KMart and Sears as a dinosaur on legacy life support.

It seems like excitement is missing from the marketplace of goods. At least Tesla is leading a sort of revolution to follow. Nothing new in computing and tech, only incrementalism of old patterns and technologies. Pot was not the revolution it was billed to be. I am personally hoping that there will be a revolution in the garment industry, making better use of technical fabrics and integrations, but I doubt it.

Alternative energy is interesting, as are better reactors, and smart grids. I would also like to see small-scale alt energy take off, it has disruptive potential.

For now it’s business as usual in the aggregate markets.

From 12/21/2018

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yazdontgo wrote:

Interesting. Maybe. could be right, but I think after a couple neg Qs things will start to climb back.

20,000, 5,900, 2,100 Dow, Nas, S&P I don't think it will go much lower than that and will start to turn positive but ever so slightly. All will be well, just get through 2019.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-21_14-04-24.jpg?itok=HUygxBrN

Today...

DOW: 28,000

Nas: 8,600

S&P: 3,130

Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor:

“The distinction between investment and speculation in common stocks has always been a useful one and its disappearance is a cause for concern. We have often said that Wall Street as an institution would be well advised to reinstate this distinction and to emphasize it in all its dealings with the public. Otherwise the stock exchanges may some day be blamed for heavy speculative losses, which those who suffered them had not been properly warned against.”

"If you focused more on how you could gain benefit, you might do better at investing, too."

English as a second language?

Shoah you do wrote:

"If you focused more on how you could gain benefit, you might do better at investing, too."

English as a second language?

Would it matter?

Is there something egregious with my colloquial?

You do understand that this is an internet board, right??

Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor:

“Outright speculation is neither immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook. More than that, some speculation is necessary and unavoidable.”

Philip Carret, who wrote The Art of Speculation (1930), believed “motive” was the test for determining the difference between investment and speculation. Carret connected the investor to the economics of the business and the speculator to price. ‘Speculation,’ wrote Carret, ‘may be defined as the purchase or sale of securities or commodities in expectation of profiting by fluctuations in their prices.’

Stock Market Historian wrote:

Philip Carret, who wrote The Art of Speculation (1930), believed “motive” was the test for determining the difference between investment and speculation. Carret connected the investor to the economics of the business and the speculator to price. ‘Speculation,’ wrote Carret, ‘may be defined as the purchase or sale of securities or commodities in expectation of profiting by fluctuations in their prices.’

Correct. Also, obvious.

In the discussion of speculation verse investing, where does such factors as market cycle, interest rates, regulatory factors, etc., etc., etc., come into play? Not to mention investor sentiment at large.

Sounds like a simplistic false dichotomy for your average dolt.

But hey, we're all geniuses on a day like this.

Kars 4 Kidz wrote:

Shoah you do wrote:

"If you focused more on how you could gain benefit, you might do better at investing, too."

English as a second language?

Would it matter?

Thin skinned are ye?

I haven't posted an update of my naïve market "prediction" (forecast is I think the better word), and I can't refer back to my old graphs (they were all uploaded to tinypic, which has since gone under), nor post the current ones. Last time I updated, somebody (Racket I think) was fairly critical of the broad uncertainly ranges in my projections. That hasn't changed, and here are my projections for a year ahead, to late-November 2020, for S&P 500:

Most likely (median, 50 %ile) value: 3409

0.01 percentile (99.99% it will be higher): 1594

5 %ile: 2536

10 %ile: 2715

90 %ile: 3970

95 %ile: 4139

99.99 %ile: 5132

In other words, there's an 80% chance the index will be between 2715 and 3970 in a year's time, 10% chance of being lower than 2715, 10% chance of being higher than 3970.

BTW, my original naïve (in that they rely on no understanding or belief of the market beyond looking at the past data) projections from 23 March 2018 proved pretty good (by which I mean lucky), in that my "best guess" (50 %ile) had us at about 3103 today, not very far off actual, and the index has fluctuates down to touch my 10 %ile projection (last December dip) and up within about the 70 %ile projection.

Maserati wrote:

I have no problem admitting when I am wrong

As we all know, not everyone is willing to do that.

If you examine fundamental factors, i.e. employment, economic cycles, asset valuations, central bank policy, investor sentiment, politics, etc. a more likely scenario would be the lower end of your range with a high probability of 1,100 by 2021.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:If you examine fundamental factors, i.e. employment, economic cycles, asset valuations, central bank policy, investor sentiment, politics, etc. a more likely scenario would be the lower end of your range with a high probability of 1,100 by 2021.

Yeah, I can appreciate that, but my own view is that financial markets are unpredictable and generally untied to "fundamentals." Naïve, I know. This is what makes me an idiot...

Igy,

I might add, if someone were willing to offer odds on the index being at 1100 by 2021, I would take that bet with good money at almost any odds. I assert that there is essentially zero probability of the S&P 500 ever dipping below 1500 again.

Another scam wrote:

Kars 4 Kidz wrote:

Would it matter?

Thin skinned are ye?

Nope. Just curious about why someone’s primary language would matter to you.

And aren’t you the same guy that demeans people on the spectrum?

All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 25, 2019. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 26.35% and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 24.84%. In third is Germany's DAXK with a gain of 21.31%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 7.41%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/11/25/world-markets-update?bt_ee=c33dS4bPNroqaOLRE6NTfOLHTHwUMEjhcjbCXk%2BjJxzKSRD4R840RFE%2BPpojNjPt&bt_ts=1574774611336