Down goes the Dow

I, too, enjoy Maserati's contributions to this thread. He has a lot to offer and I have learned some things from him. But I do think he tries too hard sometimes when he mixes in gibberish and mumbo jumbo. Then he gets defensive when someone calls him out on what he wrote. I think perhaps he is trying to attain agip/Flagpole status, but that is a lofty goal even for someone with Maserati's knowledge base.

My advice: keep posting, but don't be afraid to admit when your wrong (see agip). A little modesty goes a long way. And don't underestimate the investment IQ of many here.

Sally Vixxxxxens wrote:

I, too, enjoy Maserati's contributions to this thread. He has a lot to offer and I have learned some things from him. But I do think he tries too hard sometimes when he mixes in gibberish and mumbo jumbo. Then he gets defensive when someone calls him out on what he wrote. I think perhaps he is trying to attain agip/Flagpole status, but that is a lofty goal even for someone with Maserati's knowledge base.

My advice: keep posting, but don't be afraid to admit when your wrong (see agip). A little modesty goes a long way. And don't underestimate the investment IQ of many here.

Nice post.

oohh, what have we here?

DJIA down 240 at mid-day, nicely erasing yesterday's phantom gains,and then some.

At this point I almost consider this to be momentum, and yesterday a hiccup.

This is looking good, a nice sustained, well-thought-out and orderly selloff. I would much rather see this than an absurd crash.

Anything can happen, and we will see. No doubt some will see buying opportunities in some of this, and foreign money will continue to pour in, however options might affect things.

Phantom gains? Tell that to the folks who sold late yesterday.

All 5 of them!

DJIA closes down 264 to 16,946

I'm more comfortable with this number below 17k. I'm in an airport terminal and just saw that Cramer guy on TV, he was exhorting everybody not to panic, not to sell, but to buy instead.

And exactly where does the money to buy come from?

Unless you're on big-time margin, it comes from selling. I'm referring of course to investors, not to the guy buying a few bucks worth of stock out of his paycheck. I don't buy on margin.

This is still a great time to sell, at 17k, depending on what it is you're selling. I still think the market will go lower enough to make selling worthwhile, and I think it will happen either this year, or early in Q1 2015. Plus, by selling, you are locking in a known tax rate.

Selling now would not represent panic selling, if you remain sober. Just below 17k is still a high point for the DJIA, and the drop of the past few days is, again, not yet terribly significant, although it is interesting, and becomes more significant daily. But it's still not terribly significant.

Whatever, all my opinion, although it continues to serve me well. I was just laughing at that Cramer guy--the wisdom is, of course, above all to not panic, and to not follow the herd down. Following the herd cresting the hill is of course unreservedly encouraged, though!

Right. By selling, I went counter-current, and as of today, am beating the markets handily. I don't care if the DJIA hovers around 17k--a couple of hundred points this way or that would be sweating the small stuff. To see it rise a couple of hundred points and then jump back in would be to panic on the fear that I was losing out on some kind of opportunity--which, in fact, would be no opportunity at all, from today's perspective.

I hate airports!

Maserati wrote:

All 5 of them!

...

Did trading stop that day? Were there no trades? Perhaps only five. Because I am pretty sure that each trade that occurs has a...wait for it...seller.

Seriously, do you have any rational thinking capacity? Anything at all beyond vacuous industry jargon?

Cramer? You watching Seinfeld, bro?

Maserati wrote:

This is still a great time to sell, at 17k, depending on what it is you're selling. I still think the market will go lower enough to make selling worthwhile, and I think it will happen either this year, or early in Q1 2015. Plus, by selling, you are locking in a known tax rate.

I hate airports!

Agree on one point, airports suck.

Otherwise: Wrong. Dow is not going lower. Hang and wait. Margins are good, valuations are good. Time to kill this useless thread.

Dow is now under 17k

Maserati wrote:

Here's a problem: there is so much cash sitting on the sidelines (including mine), and nobody has found a way to get it off the sidelines

Maserati wrote:

I'm in an airport terminal and just saw that Cramer guy on TV, he was exhorting everybody not to panic, not to sell, but to buy instead.

And exactly where does the money to buy come from?

Unless you're on big-time margin, it comes from selling.

Where does the money come from? What about all that money you said is "sitting on the sidelines"? Or have you finally admitted you were wrong about that?

Flight delayed.

I wonder, do you actually believe your posts to be clever, or incisive?

For instance, where do you think the money on the sidelines came from?

Why do I even bother? Even here in Dulles you suck.

can we stop with the insults, pointing out the obvious? The only guy on this thread who gets insulted is K5, and then me. By him. If you follow.

Seriously, go get a drink, eat some ice cream, whatever. This thread is not exactly thriving and you are hurting it with harshness for no real point.

You want to start a discussion, start it and ask for facts and reasoning. The question of money on the sidelines is an interesting one. No need to harsh it up.

please.

I'm not the one who wrote "you suck" or "get a life". In fact you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that anything I've written has been an insult.

Look, maybe you think Maserati deserves carte blanche on this thread, but when I see something contradictory or that I disagree with then I'm saying something. The fact that he resorts to insults when this happens speaks volumes.

GDP growth revised up for April-June quarter. 4.6% is a huge number. But of course that was just a rebound from the negative numbers for the Jan-March quarter. i have to think that given the strong grwoth of the US economy, the macro people will start buying US stocks before they fall too much farther:

WASHINGTON — After a dismal winter, the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the spring, the fastest pace in more than two years, the government reported Friday. The solid rebound is expected to provide momentum for strong growth the rest of the year.

The Commerce Department said the April-June figure compared to a decline of 2.1 percent in the first three months of the year, when a harsh winter caused the biggest drop in activity since the Great Recession.

Friday's result was even better than the 4.2 percent estimate made a month ago. The latest revision reflects improvements in business investment and exports. Economists believe the economy is growing above 3 percent in the current July-September quarter.

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

I'm not the one who wrote "you suck" or "get a life". In fact you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that anything I've written has been an insult.

Look, maybe you think Maserati deserves carte blanche on this thread, but when I see something contradictory or that I disagree with then I'm saying something. The fact that he resorts to insults when this happens speaks volumes.

Good points!

Maserati wrote:

And POTO's crowning achievement, posted as I was writing my comment, congratulating himself while forgetting to change his posting name to one of his aliases.

I now rest my case.

Except of course that Pointing Out the Obvious is not the same person as Pointing Out the Obvious.

But, of course that must have been obvious to you (or anyone with non-zero intelligence).

Anyway, carry on with your vacuous market mantras and claims that you fail to back up. Good show!

DJIA up 76 so far Friday mid-morning to just above 17k again, but I'm not sensing any underlying momentum or optimism, more just a watchfulness. Q2 growth figure was very good but qualified. Hopefully by the end of the day the effect of this quantum of good news will have dissipated, and the market will again return from such a distraction to more basic considerations, and will continue to fall in an orderly fashion.

If this growth figure is anywhere near accurate, it is huge, huge, especially if that kind of momentum shows to have been sustained through Q3. I think people are still wary, though, and need to see more.

"Business investment"? What does that mean? Does that mean the flight to quality, and therefore includes purchases of US equity and debt with foreign money?

That would be tautological--the market goes up, on news that the market goes up. At times, growth in valuation can reflect real underlying growth; at other times, it can result from completely different motivating factors. I think what we are seeing here is a relative improvement only, not a real improvement. If there is a real improvement, I think it is the result of consolidation--the big and strong get bigger and stronger due to shifts in investment. Gaining market share is a legitimate form of growth that we would expect to see reflected in increased revenues.

I am waiting to see more numbers before formulating an idea of what is actually going on. What I particularly enjoy is the seemingly manipulated gyrations of the market--here we have a couple of down days, and everybody starts talking selloff and panic--and then seemingly miraculously, we have this absolutely fantastic news being released on a Friday so that the markets can get a bump and we can all go into the weekend feeling good, and will come out swinging on Monday, refreshed.

The timing of these releases is everything, because everybody knows that the market responds, and how (in general). Am I suggesting that people are making money on this cycle by selective timing? Absolutely. These are the types of things that can manipulate a market, at least in the short term--which is long enough to make some bank.

Think about it--you have the DJIA right where you want it, after a dismal week of dropping below 17k, and the talking heads are beginning to talk about a "buying opportunity". It's laid out for you on a silver platter, all you need to do is to provide a scintilla of optimism to impel people to action.

BAM! All of a sudden the excellent growth figure appears.

How convenient. Now up 86 on the day.

Maserati wrote:

And POTO's crowning achievement, posted as I was writing my comment, congratulating himself while forgetting to change his posting name to one of his aliases.

I now rest my case.

Good points!

I'm still not optimistic that the dip is over - risky assets are lagging the blue chips - not much bargain hunting going on. I'd expect more selling next week.