purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Only time will tell if your purchases made since 2011 will pay off. I say they won’t?.
Did anybody else's purchases made from 2011-2017 do OK?
Sure. Especially the one’s that Igy poo-pooed.
purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Only time will tell if your purchases made since 2011 will pay off. I say they won’t?.
Did anybody else's purchases made from 2011-2017 do OK?
Sure. Especially the one’s that Igy poo-pooed.
Igy, what are you poo-pooing these days?
TIA.
seattle prattle wrote:
Igy, what are you poo-pooing these days?
TIA.
Seattle,
Simple, any stock investments. Nothing has changed my belief this is the greatest asset bubble ever.
Igy
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/chart-8.png?itok=05oOyccWDGTD contrarian indicator alert wrote:
purple martin wrote:
Did anybody else's purchases made from 2011-2017 do OK?
Sure. Especially the one’s that Igy poo-pooed.
From Media Bias / Fact Check:
The website is registered in Bulgaria under the name Georgi Georgiev, a business partner of Krassimir Ivandjiiski.
In a quote from the above New Yorker article they summarize the political stance of the blog, which Lokey told Bloomberg is: “Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry= dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft.”
Zero Hedge’s content has been classified as “alt-right” and has been criticized for presenting conspiracy theories.
In review, Zero Hedge publishes pro-right wing/Trump articles such as Pat Buchanan: “Trump Calls Off Cold War II.” As well as fake news stories regarding liberals: Anti-Trump Protesters Bused Into Austin, Chicago.
Editorial content is written under the pseudonym Tyler Durden and usually focuses on conspiracies related to economic collapse. Zero Hedge sources to factually mixed think tanks such as the The Mises Institute, which promotes Austrian (Anarcho-Capitalism) economics.
A factual search reveals a terrible track record with IFCN fact checkers. There are too many failed checks to list here.
Overall, we rate Zero Hedge an extreme right biased conspiracy website.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Igy, what are you poo-pooing these days?
TIA.
Seattle,
Simple, any stock investments. Nothing has changed my belief this is the greatest asset bubble ever.
i'm
Igy
You're correct, it is! The only thing is, it didn't peak in 2011, 2012, 2013.........2017, as you thought it would.
I'm not sure about calling it a wise investment strategy preparing for a big decline 10-15 years in advance.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1175861182714011648John Hussman wrote:
not mine. :(
Hussman’s signature fund is down 14.24% ytd 42.2% and since inception.
Top performer last two Bear Markets. Coming again to a theatre near you.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Top performer last two Bear Markets. Coming again to a theatre near you.
So you advocate trying to time the market? Interesting.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Top performer last two Bear Markets. Coming again to a theatre near you.
It still lost money most years of the last bear market. An investor would have been better off in CDs or cash.
Okay... So some things I have noticed that might be worth serious consideration.
1) The bond yield inversion. No real need to get into details as it's old news, but it usually precedes a recession.
2) Gold and silver are way up after being largely stagnant for years. This indicates people are putting their wealth into precious metals rather than stocks, indicating a significant percentage of investors see stocks as a bad (or at least very uncertain) investment over the next several years.
3) China is also buying up a ton of gold.
4) Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway held a record $122 billion in cash at the end of June. The conglomerate's cash is worth nearly 60% of its portfolio of public companies, the largest proportion since before the financial crisis. One of Buffett's favorite yardsticks (capitalization as a percentage of gross domestic product) suggests the US stock market is more overvalued than it was at the height of the dot-com bubble and just before the financial crisis. Capitalization as % of GDP reached 154% in 2017 — surpassing the 146% it notched at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 137% it posted just before the financial crisis in 2007, Bloomberg said. Given the stock market's gains over the past 18 months, that percentage is undoubtedly even higher today. Perhaps WB knows something we don't? Or are things different now? Is this the new norm with passive investors?
5) CFOs see a recession coming in the next year. "According to the survey, 53% of CFOs expect a recession no later than the third-quarter of next year. When asked if a recession will begin by the end of next year, the percentage grows to 67%."
I'll add 6) The full effect of tariffs has yet to be felt by the economy, and I expect it to continually slow growth. That is somewhat speculative though.
...
All this combined suggests pretty strongly to me that a recession and significant dip in the market is likely over the next year. There certainly have been a lot of people calling it a bubble and saying as bad as 2008 or worse. Will it be that bad? Statistically speaking, it is unlikely, but how can anyone really predict? What do you all make of this?
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Top performer last two Bear Markets. Coming again to a theatre near you.
It still lost money most years of the last bear market. An investor would have been better off in CDs or cash.
Seattle,
I am more interested in Hussman’s writing than his fund. That said, I would rather be in his fund than the market. I think when the S&P 500 is back to 1,100 many naysayers will have a different view of John
Hussman.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I am more interested in Hussman’s writing than his fund. That said, I would rather be in his fund than the market. I think when the S&P 500 is back to 1,100 many naysayers will have a different view of John
Hussman.
Igy
What different view? Like you, this guy has been wrong for the past 10 years. Eventually the markets will crash and you will be claiming victory, but at what cost? Missing out on a decade long bull market just so that you can say “I told you so”? The rest of us will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Go Pats!
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Eventually the markets will crash and you will be claiming victory, but at what cost? Missing out on a decade long bull market just so that you can say “I told you so”?
BINGO! He thought it was ending 8 years ago.
Worst kind of advisor. Refuses to change course when wrong at the expense of clients.
