mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
with Fed beginning cutting at 2-2.25%.
Since very little of what you say comes true, you would do well to preface your comments with "I'm Guessing".
No, you are just naive and misinterpret implications of what I have said. But you will ride it down, scratch your head and ask “why me?”
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
with Fed beginning cutting at 2-2.25%.
Since very little of what you say comes true, you would do well to preface your comments with "I'm Guessing".
A visual representation of a bloated overvalued market, and ten year forward investor returns.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aczPDGC3f8U&list=RDaczPDGC3f8UCheck again wrote:
Buck Ashuck wrote:
Last I checked, the market was going up. Too bad you missed out, but you can take solace in knowing that you’re smart “enuff”.
.
You might want to check again.
I checked. Up again!
The thread isn’t Down goes the NASDAQ.
Bucks Taashes wrote:
The thread isn’t Down goes the NASDAQ.
Correct! Also, irrelevant.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
Since very little of what you say comes true, you would do well to preface your comments with "I'm Guessing".
No, you are just naive and misinterpret implications of what I have said. But you will ride it down, scratch your head and ask “why me?”
Why don't you just post another picture of me walking off the DOW cliff when it was at 17,000.
I guess I misinterpreted that.
nah wrote:
Down is the new UP wrote:
Hey, where's Igy today. Yesterday he was posting all day, but today he's relatively quiet.
Probably working on a new target date for the massive drop in the market.
He's been good for giving us a new one about every six months for the past 5 years.
He's the Flagpole / Agip / Fat Hurts of this Dow thread. LOL
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
Since very little of what you say comes true, you would do well to preface your comments with "I'm Guessing".
A visual representation of a bloated overvalued market, and ten year forward investor returns.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aczPDGC3f8U&list=RDaczPDGC3f8U
How is it overvalued? P/E on the SP500 isn't even really that high. I guess you could argue it should be way lower at like Great Depression levels but American companies are doing pretty well. Yeah they're buying stock back at record paces too but they're posting big profits as well thanks to the good ol' American consumer and our ability to literally spend every dime we make
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.21, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of 6.2%. This would indicate that for long-term investors the S&P 500 is currently not overvalued.
Investing in equities for the long-haul when the CAPE-MA35 ratio is below 1.30 should produce reasonable returns as this level of the ratio does not signifies overvaluation of the market.
What does this all have to do with running??
No worries. The bond market is pricing a 100% chance of a September Fed rate cut of 25 bps, a 50 bps cut at 50%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No worries. The bond market is pricing a 100% chance of a September Fed rate cut of 25 bps, a 50 bps cut at 50%.
Bond market has been bearish since 1995. Also, when every other country in the world starts cutting rates then it kind of forces the Fed's hand to step in and make sure the dollar doesn't get blown up
ok cancel battle stations. Market has made it back up to essentially where it was before this little snit.
every one of these drops feels different and more real than the last. But afterwards you just say 'man I wish I had taken advantage of that buying opportunity"
December 18 really was different. That was insane. I'm still nursing psychological scars from that one. Lost some respect for myself. I was in a fetal ball at one point.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No worries. The bond market is pricing a 100% chance of a September Fed rate cut of 25 bps, a 50 bps cut at 50%.
Bond market has been bearish since 1995. Also, when every other country in the world starts cutting rates then it kind of forces the Fed's hand to step in and make sure the dollar doesn't get blown up
One can likewise argue since 1995 misguided Fed policy has led to continued misallocation of capital and serial boom-bust cycles.
agip wrote:
ok cancel battle stations. Market has made it back up to essentially where it was before this little snit.
every one of these drops feels different and more real than the last. But afterwards you just say 'man I wish I had taken advantage of that buying opportunity"
December 18 really was different. That was insane. I'm still nursing psychological scars from that one. Lost some respect for myself. I was in a fetal ball at one point.
Honestly this is about as good as it gets for day traders and swing traders. What's crazy is that the 10 year completely recovered from before as well, although it's still drastically low. At this point too I feel like the trade war is more or less priced in. Investors just don't care or don;t think it will be all that bad. And honestly it hasn't been too bad yet (except for farmers I guess). Americans are still paying up for all sorts of goods and services. Unless the credit market breaks again or there's a huge drop in consumer confidence then it's gonna take hardcore numbers to bring this market down. Maybe a big hedge fund will go bankrupt like Bear Sterns style because of some trade war related thing and that will trigger everyone idk
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
One can likewise argue since 1995 misguided Fed policy has led to continued misallocation of capital and serial boom-bust cycles.
One could argue that, but they should be prepared to lose the argument.
Go Pats!
Sure just like the annualized NASDAQ returns since March of 2000 of 2.6%, and S&P 500 a little over a percentage higher.
Go Pats to the Orchids of Asia Massage Parlor!
Also for seattle if he sees this : check AMD today. Like I said, it's an overpriced penny stock
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
ok cancel battle stations. Market has made it back up to essentially where it was before this little snit.
every one of these drops feels different and more real than the last. But afterwards you just say 'man I wish I had taken advantage of that buying opportunity"
December 18 really was different. That was insane. I'm still nursing psychological scars from that one. Lost some respect for myself. I was in a fetal ball at one point.
Honestly this is about as good as it gets for day traders and swing traders. What's crazy is that the 10 year completely recovered from before as well, although it's still drastically low. At this point too I feel like the trade war is more or less priced in. Investors just don't care or don;t think it will be all that bad. And honestly it hasn't been too bad yet (except for farmers I guess). Americans are still paying up for all sorts of goods and services. Unless the credit market breaks again or there's a huge drop in consumer confidence then it's gonna take hardcore numbers to bring this market down. Maybe a big hedge fund will go bankrupt like Bear Sterns style because of some trade war related thing and that will trigger everyone idk
the difference with this round of tariffs is that it includes stuff consumers buy. Lots of clothes, etc. And it suggests there won't be an end to this before the election.
I mean runners are going to be hit by this hard - shoes are going to rise in price, or companies will soak up the price and cost them earnings.