J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket: “All Trump has to do is basically declare victory and end the tariffs. The trade war is solely a problem he created and I have no doubt he'll walk away with less the closer we get to 2020 and the more desperate he gets.”
Hey that statement seems like control to me, but whatever dude.
After the fact, but whatever makes you happy.
Your acceptance of defeat makes me happy.
kibitzer wrote:
As many have observed lots of stocks (and the market in general) have been 'way overpriced for a while now. Days like this may let out some of the bloat without significantly affecting fundamentals.
A few ratchets downward, provided they level off afterward, may actually put DJT in a better position to avoid recession, and make his re-election easier.
Way overpriced? SP500 is at ~21 forward P/E which is pretty normal historically.
People said in 2018 that the market was due for a correction and so that's why it's tanking, nothing to fear, and then it rocket shipped it's way back to ATHs almost literally overnight despite no trade wars being settled. If the narrative for this drop is going to be "market is due for a correction" then exactly how many corrections is a stock market supposed to have over a 1 year period?
Anyways, ample liquidity is coming to the rescue as I type so no need to worry
kibitzer wrote:
As many have observed lots of stocks (and the market in general) have been 'way overpriced for a while now. Days like this may let out some of the bloat without significantly affecting fundamentals.
A few ratchets downward, provided they level off afterward, may actually put DJT in a better position to avoid recession, and make his re-election easier.
Some of the bloat huh? How many Dow points is that? Has to be at least 10,000 points.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
After the fact, but whatever makes you happy.
Your acceptance of defeat makes me happy.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
No one, other than you, mentioned anything about Trump controlling the markets. The discussion was about his influence, which is very real but limited.
Racket: “All Trump has to do is basically declare victory and end the tariffs. The trade war is solely a problem he created and I have no doubt he'll walk away with less the closer we get to 2020 and the more desperate he gets.”
Hey that statement seems like control to me, but whatever dude.
That would be control of the trade war which would certainly influence the market. So it seems you agree with me after all. Good day.
Whatever dude.
here's a way out:
China just devalued. So they can afford some wiggle room now. They will save on the currency what they lose on the tariffs.
So now China goes to Trump and says 'stupid fat man, we will give you a concession that we don't really care about. Now you can sign a deal, declare victory and win your election. Your precious stock market will stop falling 3% per day.'
Part of the deal will be to look the other way when tanks roll into HK, but Trump will be more than happy to look the other way on that one.
File under god is jfwu.
HSI -767.26
DJIA -767.27
agip wrote:
here's a way out:
China just devalued. So they can afford some wiggle room now. They will save on the currency what they lose on the tariffs.
So now China goes to Trump and says 'stupid fat man, we will give you a concession that we don't really care about. Now you can sign a deal, declare victory and win your election. Your precious stock market will stop falling 3% per day.'
Part of the deal will be to look the other way when tanks roll into HK, but Trump will be more than happy to look the other way on that one.
This is why the markets are dropping. Trump raises tariffs, then China responds by devaluing their currency. They are going back and forth, and now it’s Trumps move (even higher tariffs?).
The markets do not like uncertainty.
Financial Advisor wrote:
agip wrote:
here's a way out:
China just devalued. So they can afford some wiggle room now. They will save on the currency what they lose on the tariffs.
So now China goes to Trump and says 'stupid fat man, we will give you a concession that we don't really care about. Now you can sign a deal, declare victory and win your election. Your precious stock market will stop falling 3% per day.'
Part of the deal will be to look the other way when tanks roll into HK, but Trump will be more than happy to look the other way on that one.
This is why the markets are dropping. Trump raises tariffs, then China responds by devaluing their currency. They are going back and forth, and now it’s Trumps move (even higher tariffs?).
The markets do not like uncertainty.
Geez, is that so.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1158496436666982400?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EtweetGhost of Igloi wrote:
Whatever dude.
That’s about as close as you’ll ever get to Igy admitting he was wrong.
I am glad I didn't pay attention to anyone's advice in this thread over a year ago and kept owning my Vanguard long term treasury bond fund.
SCIIG wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Whatever dude.
That’s about as close as you’ll ever get to Igy admitting he was wrong.
?
Ryan Foreman wrote:
I am glad I didn't pay attention to anyone's advice in this thread over a year ago and kept owning my Vanguard long term treasury bond fund.
One just has to comfortable with duration risk. I prefer a bar bell approach with some long duration, some floating rate, but mostly short duration.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
This is why the markets are dropping. Trump raises tariffs, then China responds by devaluing their currency. They are going back and forth, and now it’s Trumps move (even higher tariffs?).
The markets do not like uncertainty.
Geez, is that so.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1158496436666982400?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
no doubt that the uncertainty is a problem, but I'm jsut saying there is a face-saving way out now that china devalued.
the currency manipulator thing is meaningless. it means the IMF will take a look at the problem. Not a big deal.
agip and Financial Advisor both make a lot of sense here.
^Consensus view, everything is fine, buy stocks on the dip.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^Consensus view, everything is fine, buy stocks on the dip.
It certainly worked well in December when you were advising against it.
SCIIG wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
^Consensus view, everything is fine, buy stocks on the dip.
It certainly worked well in December when you were advising against it.
I didn’t advise anything related to investments.
I have advised more than once that you see a psychiatrist.