agip wrote:
Only yesterday did the rest of the world have a 100 death day, excluding Italy, Iran, Spain. Very small numbers of deaths outside Italy, Spain, Iran.
Stop the hotspots.
You do not understand high school level math. Numeracy is challenging. Stop posting.
By hotspots do you mean entire countries such as Spain, Italy and Iran? They are all still on an upwards curve and in state of emergency. The reason why these are the worst after China has regained control or their outbreak;, is because they are further into their curve. This is the problems other countries fear, that they are a week or so behind and most of the evidence of slowly growing Numbers seems to support this. Why it’s mainly confined to Lombardy is because Italy has put a country wide lockdown to stop the spread. this is how China slowed it down, but to a much stricter degree. Despite this, numbers are still growing in Italy and Spain so nobody knows how far along the problem is. The Oficial lockdown started today in Spain, the virus takes upto 14 days to show in some patients... so there is no bottom line just that some outbreaks are a few steps behind. My two cents on why it has spread faster in Spain and Italy is because everyone greets each other with two kisses / hugs even in profesional context.
Hardloper wrote:
agip wrote:
The bottom line is that over the past week, 85% of the deaths have occurred in those three countries. That's a pretty stable number. Not increasing, not decreasing.
Not sure that's very encouraging. If Italy/Spain/Iran's deaths grow by X% and the rest of the world's deaths grow by X%, then that 85% ratio remains the same. But both are still growing exponentially, one curve is just a couple weeks ahead of the other.
the question I'm raising is specifically IF we are all on the same curve. We may not be. There is strong evidence that we are not. THe three hotspots may have their own curve. And if we are not all on the same curve, that is good news.
Namely:
1) Asia kicked this thing to the curb, without exception.
2) Numbers of daily deaths are still in the 1-20 range in countries that have had this thing for many weeks. Germany,Belgium, UK, Nethlands, Switzerland. I mean look at Germany 2 deaths today. Same as always. No growth.
3) The Italian daily death count went up on its own spike up - no nation outside the Italy/Spain/Iran triad did that.
4) The only exponential growth outside Italy/Spain/Iran is in case counts, Which is a function of testing and symptoms. It's not a reflection of how many people have the virus. Millions and millions could have the virus and never know it.
I'm only looking at
I'm only looking at death counts. Got cut off.
The short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Jinan, China
https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7607-2
Effects of air pollutants on innate immunity
Plus high per-capita smoking levels in china, italy, spain.
agip wrote:
Hardloper wrote:
Not sure that's very encouraging. If Italy/Spain/Iran's deaths grow by X% and the rest of the world's deaths grow by X%, then that 85% ratio remains the same. But both are still growing exponentially, one curve is just a couple weeks ahead of the other.
the question I'm raising is specifically IF we are all on the same curve. We may not be. There is strong evidence that we are not. THe three hotspots may have their own curve. And if we are not all on the same curve, that is good news.
Namely:
1) Asia kicked this thing to the curb, without exception.
2) Numbers of daily deaths are still in the 1-20 range in countries that have had this thing for many weeks. Germany,Belgium, UK, Nethlands, Switzerland. I mean look at Germany 2 deaths today. Same as always. No growth.
3) The Italian daily death count went up on its own spike up - no nation outside the Italy/Spain/Iran triad did that.
4) The only exponential growth outside Italy/Spain/Iran is in case counts, Which is a function of testing and symptoms. It's not a reflection of how many people have the virus. Millions and millions could have the virus and never know it.
I'm only looking at
Where are you getting death count numbers? This website says Germany's death count went from 9 to 13 from March 14 to 15 (yesterday). Johns Hopkins site says its now 17 so that would be another 4 today. Even if it was 'only' 2 deaths it's still way too early to say it's stabilized, it still looks like it's doubling every 3-5 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germanycovid-19 wrote:
Just starting to hit Africa it looks like.
Where it will be devastated by Africa's long list of far worse diseases and relative lack of elderly people. They won't be scared at all.
Hardloper wrote:
agip wrote:
the question I'm raising is specifically IF we are all on the same curve. We may not be. There is strong evidence that we are not. THe three hotspots may have their own curve. And if we are not all on the same curve, that is good news.
Namely:
1) Asia kicked this thing to the curb, without exception.
2) Numbers of daily deaths are still in the 1-20 range in countries that have had this thing for many weeks. Germany,Belgium, UK, Nethlands, Switzerland. I mean look at Germany 2 deaths today. Same as always. No growth.
3) The Italian daily death count went up on its own spike up - no nation outside the Italy/Spain/Iran triad did that.
4) The only exponential growth outside Italy/Spain/Iran is in case counts, Which is a function of testing and symptoms. It's not a reflection of how many people have the virus. Millions and millions could have the virus and never know it.
I'm only looking at
Where are you getting death count numbers? This website says Germany's death count went from 9 to 13 from March 14 to 15 (yesterday). Johns Hopkins site says its now 17 so that would be another 4 today. Even if it was 'only' 2 deaths it's still way too early to say it's stabilized, it still looks like it's doubling every 3-5 days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany
German daily death counts from that website:
March 12th :3
13th:2
14th: 1
15th: 4
16th: 4
If you want to call going from 2 to 4 'doubling' well that's literally true but it's only 4 deaths.
I'm going to call that a stable and very very low death count.
agip wrote:
German daily death counts from that website:
March 12th :3
13th:2
14th: 1
15th: 4
16th: 4
If you want to call going from 2 to 4 'doubling' well that's literally true but it's only 4 deaths.
I'm going to call that a stable and very very low death count.
Total cases are going up about 20% daily in US, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Malaysia, and Canada. Total deaths are also growing by about 20% daily. It's way too early to call it stable, the death count lags the case count and I fully expect it to keep growing 20% daily (i.e. doubling every 3.8 days) for a while yet.
Hardloper wrote:
agip wrote:
German daily death counts from that website:
March 12th :3
13th:2
14th: 1
15th: 4
16th: 4
If you want to call going from 2 to 4 'doubling' well that's literally true but it's only 4 deaths.
I'm going to call that a stable and very very low death count.
Total cases are going up about 20% daily in US, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Malaysia, and Canada. Total deaths are also growing by about 20% daily. It's way too early to call it stable, the death count lags the case count and I fully expect it to keep growing 20% daily (i.e. doubling every 3.8 days) for a while yet.
Check the deaths circa February 20-27 and it looks like current week for Germany
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/zzzz wrote:
coronasceptic wrote:
Such anger. Don't worry so much about my opinion. I can't invent a reality the way the left tries to. I'm only stating an opinion. It won't hurt you in any way - or it should't.
OK, so now the "recovered" number is 73. Wow! Do you really believe that only 73 of have recovered?
For people infected on the same date or tested confirmed on the same date, you have to expect a lag time for someone to be confirmed as recovered compared to someone that dies. It takes about 17 days for someone to go from infected to dead from this. If they are on the path to recovery, all the symptoms have to completely resolve, they have to test negative twice, and be isolated for several days. All that adds up to 8 to 10 days longer for someone to be confirmed as recovered over someone dying.
The lag time information is from this paper:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024513v1.full.pdf+html
****************************************
And that's just *one* of the incredibly salient facts these morons continue to purposely *ignore*.
(And one of the reasons BW's *latest* line of bullsh*t --that death-rates are plummeting-- is stupidly wrong, once again. The cherry-picked artificially-low rates he's prattling on about are about to spike upwards. And we're already seeing that today.)
Hardloper wrote:
agip wrote:
German daily death counts from that website:
March 12th :3
13th:2
14th: 1
15th: 4
16th: 4
If you want to call going from 2 to 4 'doubling' well that's literally true but it's only 4 deaths.
I'm going to call that a stable and very very low death count.
Total cases are going up about 20% daily in US, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Malaysia, and Canada. Total deaths are also growing by about 20% daily. It's way too early to call it stable, the death count lags the case count and I fully expect it to keep growing 20% daily (i.e. doubling every 3.8 days) for a while yet.
I'm not commenting on case counts - they depend completely on testing availability and symptoms and how aggressive each healthcare system is on testing. Apples to oranges going from one nation to the next.
We'll see what happens with death counts...Sunday was horrible but Monday was less terrible.
And that's just *one* of the incredibly salient facts these morons continue to purposely *ignore*. (And one of the reasons BW's *latest* line of bullsh*t --that death-rates are plummeting-- is stupidly wrong, once again. The cherry-picked artificially-low rates he's prattling on about are about to spike upwards. And we're already seeing that today.)
Hey sp2 what do you think about the connection between air quality/pollutants/particulates as a fundamental cause of COPD/suppressed immune systems and various lung ailments?
Let's put aside COVID for a moment- what do you think is the overall health of those who are living in such areas where the air quality is horrendous.
Hardloper wrote:
agip wrote:
The bottom line is that over the past week, 85% of the deaths have occurred in those three countries. That's a pretty stable number. Not increasing, not decreasing.
Not sure that's very encouraging. If Italy/Spain/Iran's deaths grow by X% and the rest of the world's deaths grow by X%, then that 85% ratio remains the same. But both are still growing exponentially, one curve is just a couple weeks ahead of the other.
********************************************
Yep. His observation is meaningless. It completely ignores that there are plenty of other places with scary death-rates, whose numbers are just getting started. (England, for one --whose rate is higher than Spain's.)
Your comment makes like 3 or 4 actual pieces of intelligent analysis I've seen on the boards today.
It's a bit of a shock.
ledi wrote:
I’m generally pretty calm and a water-off-a-duck’s back type person, but in this case I’m going to say:
There will be blood on Bad Wigins, Facts Matter, Allen, and dunes runners hands if people listen to them, as well as the owners of this site if they don’t do anything about it and knowingly allow the spread of information that can potentially lead to unnecessary death... in my opinion. I’m not sure what their motivations are whether they are being paid, being influenced by someone else to spread these dangerous ideas, or if they are truly just contrarian idiots, but they are nonetheless dangerous and being allowed to continue spreading dangerous ideas.
My opinion: Get your crap together brojos. This started out as an individual problem issue and it’s starting to look more like a negligence issue to me. Not giving a legal opinion, just a personal one - this is a pandemic which experts (and world experience) says has the potential to overwhelm medical systems and lead to death. That’s right, people dying who didn’t have to. Plain and simple, with some keyboard morons spreading completely false information. Their default response to a post like this one will be a “No, you’re wrong. *Lengthy post linking to misleading information and emotional drawstrings, a few all caps, and some authoritative voice to appeal to casual readers *.” I still genuinely don’t know what their motivation is, but I don’t see the site doing anything to stop it.
You really are a hysterical asshat! How can I have blood on my hands for stating a fact. Here it is again and updated.
Fact: 22,000 flu deaths is more than 85 coronavirus deaths. You CANNOT say that the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu until it causes more deaths. I put 10 blocks in one pile and 2 blocks in another pile and asked my 5 year old which had more. He got it right. What seems to be your malfunction that you cannot?
sp2 wrote:
Yep. His observation is meaningless. It completely ignores that there are plenty of other places with scary death-rates, whose numbers are just getting started. (England, for one --whose rate is higher than Spain's.)
It's so cute that you think you're an expert on what's happening because you read a few numbers on a web page. As if you're the only one on the Interwebs who can do maths.
It's also hilarious that you guys look at the Worldometers web page like it's an NFL scoreboard. "Let's see how Iran did today! Ooooohhh, look at that, Tony! 1,053! That's not good!"
You have absolutely no f*ing clue. None.
Welcome to 2020, where any idiot with a computer and an Internet connection can be an expert.
Please do the world a favor and just shut yer pie hole.
Facts Matter wrote:
Fact: 22,000 flu deaths is more than 85 coronavirus deaths. You CANNOT say that the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu until it causes more deaths. I put 10 blocks in one pile and 2 blocks in another pile and asked my 5 year old which had more. He got it right. What seems to be your malfunction that you cannot?
What exactly is the point of this fact?
At the rate it's growing, the coronavirus deaths will surpass 22,000 in a month.
What you're doing is not helpful.
real questions? wrote:
Facts Matter wrote:
Fact: 22,000 flu deaths is more than 85 coronavirus deaths. You CANNOT say that the coronavirus is more deadly than the flu until it causes more deaths. I put 10 blocks in one pile and 2 blocks in another pile and asked my 5 year old which had more. He got it right. What seems to be your malfunction that you cannot?
What exactly is the point of this fact?
At the rate it's growing, the coronavirus deaths will surpass 22,000 in a month.
What you're doing is not helpful.
Are you saying you believe there will be 22,000 deaths in the US caused by COVID-19 within the next month?
Allen53 wrote:
real questions? wrote:
What exactly is the point of this fact?
At the rate it's growing, the coronavirus deaths will surpass 22,000 in a month.
What you're doing is not helpful.
Are you saying you believe there will be 22,000 deaths in the US caused by COVID-19 within the next month?
Yes, 6 weeks tops.
There's simply no reason to believe it won't keep growing at the current rate, even with actions taken.