Kip Keino and six other senior Kenyan officials charged with corruption

Armstronglivs wrote:

I read your comments and I understand what you are saying but what I believe I am hearing are some rather strained excuses for Keino's losses in the longer events. I don't believe that as a 13.20 runner over 5k he ran 14.05 simply through tactical error

(...)

In this discussion I accept there is a validity in some of the arguments offered against my own. What I find those arguments cannot answer satisfactorily, however, is the extent and degree of difference in Keino's 1500 performance compared with how he ran in the longer events and compared to how other runners were and are affected by altitude in the 1500. Essentially, he was simply too good in that one race. I think he had to have had help.

You are really annoying. You have been asking and posting the same things over and over again for days.

At least now that Deano joined in you have found some company.

You got your answers more than once and yet, because you are not satisfied with them, you question the integrity of Kip Keino. A man you don't know.

But please go on, I'll just get more popcorn.

Armstronglivs wrote:

What you say is partly true, which is why this is a debate rather than case closed...

Guess what? No ifs, ands, or buts, but I'll pretty much retract the sloppy statement about 800/1500 which was based on the fact that when any Finn thinks the Olympic games of the 1960's and 1970's and 1500m, Pekka Vasala is the first name that pops into mind (800m European record + Olympic Gold in 1972), Jim Ryun is the second one and Peter Snell the third one. Fair enough?

If was about to write something sleep-inducing about ventilatory systems, but here is one interesting finding that might give a clue why the final time was so good. Because there was the rabbit (Jipcho) that kept the pace good, the pace was really even, like amazingly even when compared to the 1964 and to the 1972 olympics and it was very similar to the WR by Hicham El-Guerrouj.

The chart shows how much speed of each 400m (last of course 300m) was vs. the average speed of the race from 64 until 72. The speeds of El-G and Snell are their speeds, the other one's speed that of the leader of the race at any given point, but they should be close enough, actually Keino's first lap was slower than Jipcho's so his pace was even more even than what the chart dictates. I don't know what type the splits of the world records were at that time period and how much small variance affects the outcome positively, but just an interesting observation particularly when one thinks how good the 1964 time was (3:38.1) compared to the amazingly weird pacing.

'68-----El-G-----'64----'72---

+2.4% -0.1% -1.1% -6.0%

-3.4% -1.4% -6.0% -3.8%

-1.3% -1.2% -1.1% +4.6%

+3.6% +3.9% +13.0% +8.7%

The 1500 is about 84% aerobic - closer to the longer distances:

As another poster (Aragon I think) commented, we know that altitude conditions for 800m are beneficial, but are certainly a hindrance for all (altitude born or not) over 5000m. It is possible, however, that each individual is different when it comes to the crossover point beyond 800m. For most seal level born athletes it could lie between 900 and 1100m, for this born and raised at altitude, it might come after 1200m. For Ryun, it may have been 1000m, so running that extra 500m would result in quite a decline. If he had to run 3000m, that decline would be at an ever increasing rate.

Some Kenyans might start deteriorating after 1200 or 1300m, but Keino may have been in a small minority of athletes whose physiology permits him to run as much as 1500m at altitude, before the negative effect outweighs the benefits. With this scenario, it would still explain a decline in performance viz a viz his best form, over 5000m and of course 10k.

Wasn’t Gammoudi, who beat him over 5000m also an altitude raised and trained athlete?

What was the time of the first sea level based athlete in the 5000m?

Excuse me! I have voiced several different possible reasons for Keino’s performance in Mexico, including the possibility that he was able to run as far as 1500m before the negative effect of altitude outweighed the benefit of less air resistance, as he was born and raised at altitude.

I never said he doped, I stated it was a possibility along with several others that didn’t involve doping.

At the end of the day all of our comments are conjecture, even those who have met him and think him to be an honourable man, for only Keino himself knows the truth.

Renato Canova wrote:

Bekele, who REALLY NEVER PREPARED 10000m (he always won with the preparation for 5000m), in 10000m, in spite of what people think, was very far from his theorical value, compared with his WR of 5000m. All the athletes really preparing 10000m in specific way can perform with a difference of 35" - 45" compared with the double of their PB in 5000m (for example, 13' and 26'40"-26'45"). Kenenisa had a difference of 1'03", really to high, and is not something strange to suppose his WR of 10000m (that is the weaker of the WR on track in middle distances) could be very close to 26' if his preparation was in that direction.

Going by that logic Renato, Geb was actually worse because Bekele is 2s faster than him over 5,000m but 5.22s over 10,000m. So there you have it, the best two ever over 10,000m were also not very good over 10,000m. Then we look at Mo and he's just as bad.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Deanouk wrote:

[quote]Armstronglivs wrote:

Wasn’t Gammoudi, who beat him over 5000m also an altitude raised and trained athlete?

What was the time of the first sea level based athlete in the 5000m?

I have read that Gammoudi was a sea-level athlete but that he trained extensively at altitude. If that is so, we have an athlete who disproves that Keino had a unique advantage at altitude because of his physiology.

I'm pretty sure Gammoudi being a sea level athlete (from Tunisia) spent the year prior training at altitude but I can't remember where (either Russia, France or Mexico). Both he and Clarke followed the same plan with one difference, I think Gammoudi claimed that he didn't succumb to the temptation to race at sea level like Clarke did. Clarke tried out the new synthetic track at Crystal Palace and almost broke his world record during abysmal weather.

Discard my previous statements on Gammoudi, someone here claims it was two years in the Pyrenees. Clarke's 1968 altitude training was in Noakes 'Lore of Running'

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2023107&page=1

I think HRE had listed that Gammoudi did race things like what would later become the world cross country champs in early 1968. He raced the Mediterranean games in 1967.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1865686&page=2

On Clarke at Crystal Palace,

"From Racing Past:

"His pre-Olympic racing in 1968 gave him the confidence to assert that he was running better than in any time in his career. He lowered his 2 Miles world record by 0.2 with an 8:19.6, and then he ran a fine 10,000 in 27:49.4, just ten seconds off his world record. As this race was run in very windy conditions, many believed his time was superior to his world record. "

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1865686&page=2

There is a small problem that you don't consider : for all the athletes competing together Haile and Kenenisa in their record attempts in 10000m, there were the best pacers allowing them to reach their REAL potential. Instead, Haile and Kenenisa NEVER were helped longer than 5000m (in the case of the record in Hengelo, Haile had pacers for the first 3,200m only).

You understand that running in a group paced at the maximal individual speed (of course, related with the runned distance) or running alone, against time only, is not exactly the same thing.

In Bruxelles 2003, Haile wanted to attack his WR. I had one my athlete as pacer till 5000m (Joseph Kosgei), going till half race in 13'14". After this, Haile went directly in front, pushing the pace. Normally, after 6 or maximum 7 km at that pace he was alone, but in 2003 after 7 km he had still other 2 athletes coached by myself (Nicholas Kemboi and Ahmed Hassan, alias Albert Chepkurui) following him. Haile continued to push at a speed of 63" per lap till 8 km, when decided that couldn't risk to bring somebody else (he didn't know Nicholas Kemboi, whose previous PB was 28'19") till the end at the level of a new WR, losing a record already in his hands, and suddenly started to reduce the pace till 68" per lap, speed that he maintained for 4 laps, losing almost 20" compared with the previous pace. In the last 600m there was a great final between Haile and Nicholas (1'23" the last 600m), with Haile winner in 26'29"78 and Nicholas second in 29'30"03. You can find the final of the race in youtube, if interested. That day, without the presence of Nicholas, Haile could have run in 26'10", and probably was not as strong as in 1998.

I give you some example of differences among athletes I coached, when the long distances in track still existed, because now don't exist anymore :

Nicholas Kemboi - 13'01" / 26'30" (+ 28")

Ahmed Hassan - 12'56" / 26'38" (+ 46")

John Korir - 13'09" / 26'52" (+ 36")

Moses Mosop - 12'54" / 26'49" (+ 1'01")

Imane Merga - 12'53" / 26'48" (+1'02")

Mark Bett - 12'55" / 26'52" (+1'02")

Geoffrey Kirui - 13'16" / 26'55" (+ 23")

Titus Mbishei - 13'00" / 26'59" (+ 59")

Wilson Kiprop - 13'30" indoor / 27'01"

You can see the difference among athletes REALLY preparing 10000m in specific way (Nicholas, John Korir, Ahmed Hassan, Geoffrey Kirui) and athletes preparing 5000m, and RUNNING with that preparation 10000m (Merga, Bett, Mbishei).

Exceptions were Moses Mosop (who could run 26'30" in the period of WCh 2005 in Helsinki, but when senior never ran the distance in some meeting, apartone time in Hengelo) and Wilson Kiprop, who never ran 5000m (he was the World Champion of HM in 2010).

For your info, in his two attempts against the WR of 10000m, Kenenisa was one time sick, and the other time in very far shape from his best (that according to him was when he betterd the WR of 5000m, with an amazing "solo" after 2400m).

You can see all those competitions in youtube, and understand how much room of improvement there was, if it was possible to be helped by pacers in better way.

Armstronglivs wrote:

I realise I'm probably not persuading anyone here to my scepticism about Keino's Mexico performance but I might ask other commenters the following question: when research on doping (which can be found easily through a Google search) says doping in sports has reached "pandemic" levels, and did so many years ago, why would we think one of the stand-out athletic performances of the last half century could not be part of that "pandemic"? As this discussion has shown, Keino's Mexico 1500m has required an explanation not applied to any other athletic example or performance that I can think of. Can anyone come up with any other comparable example?

Why this fixation on Keino-may-have-doped-because-I-don't-accept-the-explanations-for-his-performance?

Why not focus on other outlier performances?

Paula Radcliffe's 2:15? Coe's 1:41? Farah's amazing leap from also-run to unbeatable?

Some of this I agree with, but a lot of this is a confused deduction. I think you'll find 50s to a minute is about right for these guys. 13:01 is on a par with elite 1980s times, while 26:30 is historically a 12:40s time. Korir and Kirui probably never ran in a good enough 5,000m when in good shape, unless they were born to be marathoners? What I agree with you on and was going to write in the other post is that it is possible to find pacers at world record pace for 800m to 5000m, in the 10,000m (and now Kipchoge's marathon record) though there is actually very few athletes capable on any given day of going through the mid point at better than WR pace 13:08 (or 60:50), which is a fantastic speed. I will add I believe there should be a 50% rule, no pacing for the last half of a race, which would make the issue somewhat irrelevant.

These cases are so obvious that only a few hard core Brits would defend them. Keino is one of many, on the other hand, as suspicious as Ryun or Ovett.

Will you ever stop? wrote:

Why this fixation on Keino-may-have-doped-because-I-don't-accept-the-explanations-for-his-performance?

Why not focus on other outlier performances?

Paula Radcliffe's 2:15? Coe's 1:41? Farah's amazing leap from also-run to unbeatable?

Will you ever stop? wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

I realise I'm probably not persuading anyone here to my scepticism about Keino's Mexico performance but I might ask other commenters the following question: when research on doping (which can be found easily through a Google search) says doping in sports has reached "pandemic" levels, and did so many years ago, why would we think one of the stand-out athletic performances of the last half century could not be part of that "pandemic"? As this discussion has shown, Keino's Mexico 1500m has required an explanation not applied to any other athletic example or performance that I can think of. Can anyone come up with any other comparable example?

Why this fixation on Keino-may-have-doped-because-I-don't-accept-the-explanations-for-his-performance?

Why not focus on other outlier performances?

Paula Radcliffe's 2:15? Coe's 1:41? Farah's amazing leap from also-run to unbeatable?

Coe's 1:41.73 is simply amazing! - it's hard to believe only two guys (Rudisha & Kipketer) have run faster in 37 years.

On Farah: When was he an "also-run" transitioning to unbeatable? (I think you're getting him confused with Ramzi).

Armstronglivs wrote:

Will you ever stop? wrote:

Why this fixation on Keino-may-have-doped-because-I-don't-accept-the-explanations-for-his-performance?

Why not focus on other outlier performances?

Paula Radcliffe's 2:15? Coe's 1:41? Farah's amazing leap from also-run to unbeatable?

One at a time. This thread was about Keino.

Yeah...but how much longer are you and Aragon going to keep going around in circles? I was on my smartphone reading your guy's posts with a good cup of tea and crashed out. Lol. It must even be boring for rekrunner as he's been quiet on this the last day or two.