Marietta Tar Heel wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Long haul flights might survive. Or people just might prefer the price, convenience, and comfort of long trips on demand. The goal is to drastically cut air travel. And it sounds like we both agree that it will happen.
But again you misquote me. I never said there would be no ICE vehicles, but they will probably be less than 5% of the new car market.
GM just said they will stop making ICE cars by 2035. It will be sooner if they want to stay in business.
Only wealthy people and hobbyists will own their own cars in 2030. Kind of like it is for horses today. It just won't make financial sense to have your own car any more than it makes financial sense to own a horse any more. (I know of which I speak)
You did say that non-AVs would not be allowed on freeways by 2030. That's ridiculous.
Only wealthy people and hobbyists will own their own cars in 2030.
Ummmm. No. Not even close. Well, first, define "wealthy." Top 1%?
I'm not sure you know what year it is. You are talking about 9 years from now for this complete shift that hasn't started yet.
It better happen soon since people are still buying cars today (16-17 miilion/year) and the average ownership period is 8.5 years. Think about it. In the next 9 years, some 250+million cars will be taken off the road and replaced by (who knows) at least 100-200 million or more robotaxis. Talk about additional waste material to deal with. I'd better get into the salvage industry now.
If in the next 9 years, 250 million cars are going to be abandoned, there won't be a market for resales? Where is the incentive to suddenly get rid of the convenience of my perfectly fine vehicle if I get zero for it?
Robotaxis will have a place, but they will not totally displace private ownership. And this complete shift you are dreaming of definietely won't happen in the next 9 years.
You are nuts.
Why don't you start with just this primer and then maybe we can have a reasonable discussion.
https://www.businessinsider.com/self-driving-cars-fully-autonomous-vehicles-future-prediction-timeline-2019-8