Down goes the Dow

Markets ticking up early, Dow up around 75.

Too early to mean anything, but I think some fools love Drumpf’s tweets, and his attitude.

I bet we finish a bit down today.

Maserati wrote:

Markets ticking up early, Dow up around 75.

Too early to mean anything, but I think some fools love Drumpf’s tweets, and his attitude.

I bet we finish a bit down today.

You were right. I sold a little of the Russel 2K small caps within the first few minutes of the open and bought most of it back at the close, pocketing the difference.

I love the investor confidence here. No one is confident enough to push to a meaningful all time high. This is like, what, the fourth time we've bounced off 26,700 in 18 months?

Are you trading on margin?

Lowering rates pisses me off, because it affects the USD—which is one of it’s cloaked purposes, I’m sure.

I’m glad I’m diversified in currencies and markets.

Confidence? Buy the rumor and sell the fact. Current rumor is July rate cut. I am confident that other rumors and other facts will emerge.?

Gold is up 13% in around a month.

shows you that gold is NOT an inflation hedge in most times.

even as inflation expectations have collapsed this month...gold has skyrocketed.

it is better understood as a currency hedge, a risk hedge, a store of value.

but sure, if there is strong inflation then gold will do well.

Maserati wrote:

Lowering rates pisses me off, because it affects the USD—which is one of it’s cloaked purposes, I’m sure.

I’m glad I’m diversified in currencies and markets.

Confidence? Buy the rumor and sell the fact. Current rumor is July rate cut. I am confident that other rumors and other facts will emerge.?

always a cloaked purpose, always a conspiracy.

tell me, maser, when markets decide inflation is lower and therefore interest rates should be lower at the 5 year, 7 year, 10 year, 30 year level...how is there a cloaked purpose there? How do those millions of traders cloak something and why?

Markets don’t decide. Their buying/selling occurs within an essentially closed system.

The cloaked purpose is to drive down the dollar, to make exports more attractive, to affect the trade deficit, because Drumpf is living in the 1980’s. It won’t even affect trade deficit simply as he seems to believe.

The other purpose is to drive down gov costs going forward, for those payouts that are indexed using cola. This is well-known, we cannot now just grow ourselves out of the hole, the solution needs to be multi-pronged.

The other purpose is that with slowing growth, margin “investment” costs need to come down to encourage transaction.

Looks like maybe I should have held my GDX/GDXJ a bit longer.

Maserati wrote:

Markets don’t decide. Their buying/selling occurs within an essentially closed system.

The cloaked purpose is to drive down the dollar, to make exports more attractive, to affect the trade deficit, because Drumpf is living in the 1980’s. It won’t even affect trade deficit simply as he seems to believe.

The other purpose is to drive down gov costs going forward, for those payouts that are indexed using cola. This is well-known, we cannot now just grow ourselves out of the hole, the solution needs to be multi-pronged.

The other purpose is that with slowing growth, margin “investment” costs need to come down to encourage transaction.

Looks like maybe I should have held my GDX/GDXJ a bit longer.

I still don't understand how the $47 trillion bond market is a closed system controlled and used by the US government to effect policy.

All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 24, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 22.02% gain and in second is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 17.75%. In third is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 17.34%. Coming in last is Tokyo's Nikkei with a gain of 6.35%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/06/24/world-markets-update?bt_ee=CRb9%2F75I7IRS7z8azfX7GKBm72K7rYFJZdPJgWAzrCgtGzoidLpFwT6h8RVERU%2Bq&bt_ts=1561465285976

Seriously?

agip wrote:

Gold is up 13% in around a month.

shows you that gold is NOT an inflation hedge in most times.

even as inflation expectations have collapsed this month...gold has skyrocketed.

it is better understood as a currency hedge, a risk hedge, a store of value.

but sure, if there is strong inflation then gold will do well.

meh, I think it's mostly hype and FOMO buying at this point. People are acting like the USD is gonna take a massive hit and I'm skeptical.

Idk about this but bond traders have been bearish for 25 years and I wouldn't trust them to have an accurate pulse on the economy anymore than I would some bro at a trading desk at Merrill Lynch

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Seriously?

yes

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

I still don't understand how the $47 trillion bond market is a closed system controlled and used by the US government to effect policy.

Idk about this but bond traders have been bearish for 25 years and I wouldn't trust them to have an accurate pulse on the economy anymore than I would some bro at a trading desk at Merrill Lynch

real interest rates haven't changed a whole lot - you get a percent or two over the inflation rate, usually. In times of stress that changes, but the bond market has been pretty good at getting that done for you. Investment grade, I mean. Junk is different.

Last week everything was up. Today, everything is down.

One day, every asset on Wall Street might not move together, who knows!

Racket wrote:

Last week everything was up. Today, everything is down.

One day, every asset on Wall Street might not move together, who knows!

“Financial disaster is quickly forgotten. There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.”

– John Kenneth Galbraith

Maserati wrote:

Are you trading on margin?

Not exactly. But in my brokerage accounts, I am 120% invested in stocks, and I am able to do this not through margin but by holding leveraged ETFs (TNA, SPXL, TECL, TQQQ).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

Last week everything was up. Today, everything is down.

One day, every asset on Wall Street might not move together, who knows!

“Financial disaster is quickly forgotten. There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.”

– John Kenneth Galbraith

Why the edit job instead of posting the entire, accurate quote?