Down goes the Dow

the idiot wrote:

Maserati wrote:He has always rubbed me the wrong way. He’s an arrogant, self-righteous dullard. ... It’s like being around a blowhard, know-nothing wrestling coach. He has earned the opposition.

Gonna side with Maserati on this one. Flagpole checked in today to lob an "I told you so" in our midst and figured he could get away with it without getting called on it. I can't agree with "know-nothing" but arrogant, self-righteous and blowhard all match my view of his posting history. Add to that an inability to admit error. Pretty sure he's somewhere along the spectrum. In any event, he adds a lot of noise and limited / negligible signal.

Well, you side with the wrong side then.

Here are the facts:

1) Yep...I popped in to give an "I told you so". Very friendly one at that. Warranted too due to all the know-nothings in this thread who spout all kinds of Doom and Gloom and have told me I'm an idiot many times over. My investing philosophy has been proven right over the time period of this thread and all those who said I knew nothing have been proven wrong. That Maserati (whom I didn't even call out) decided to call me a "know-nothing" again shows that he doesn't know what he's talking about. He could have kept his trap shut, but he decides to call me out because I said a stock rise the other day was "interesting". WTF?! I can decide it is interesting if I want to, so he then says it isn't interesting and yet I am the one who is pegged as a know-it-all? BS.

2) Where have I ever not admitted error? I do that ALL THE TIME. Go search for the word "unreservedly" which I use a lot when I admit error, and you will see how many times I have done so. Ridiculous that you would say I never admit error. I probably do so more than anyone else here for three main reasons - 1) I make more predictions than others; 2) I have been over time a prolific poster (though not as much lately); 3) I have 100% integrity 100% of the time and thus am required to admit fault when I am so. Again...search for the word I gave you to search for and then tell me again that I never admit fault. Here's the first hit on that search -"You pointed out something that I did that was sub par. I was wrong. I was unclear and incomplete. For that I apologize unreservedly." How about some more? "Poorly worded on my part. I was wrong to write it that way and I apologize unreservedly." AND "Well, that's a good point. I missed the part in his original post where he said he wasn't going to do this, so I was wrong to lecture him. My bad. I apologize unreservedly." AND "Yep. Sorry, brother, I missed that. I apologize unreservedly." I could go on and on with these. So, will YOU admit that YOU were wrong about me there? Because you are.

3) So, am I a know-it-all? Nope. I typically know a lot about the threads I post in though. I know a LOT about stocks and investing. I know a LOT about the manufacturing industry. I know a LOT about politics. I know a LOT about baseball. I don't know much about gaming or clog dancing or the BYU team, so I don't post there.

4) And, no I am not on the specturm (just another thing you are wrong about)...unless it's the Spectrum of Awesome! In that case, I'm at the top.

Will you admit you were wrong (because you have been proven wrong)? Time will tell, and we will see if you have integrity or not.

Flagpole, as I alluded to earlier, I believe they were actually writing about Igy and mistakenly wrote your name. You are correct that you do not fit the description that they provided, but Igy clearly does. Chalk it up to a brain cramp.

^Naturally in your mind a conversation not about Igy turns to Igy. You are a Scary Crazy demented wack job.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

^Naturally in your mind a conversation not about Igy turns to Igy. You are a Scary Crazy demented wack job.

C’mon, you thought the same thing. You think everything is about you. This time you may have actually been right, for once.

I'm wanting some feedback from any of you to see if I'm crazy or if this is a good idea.

I'm seriously considering buying series EE savings bonds.

The problem I'm having is that I think there is a real risk we are slowly entering into a deflationary era where U.S. government yields will be below 3% and even go into negative interest territory for many years. I'm not saying for sure it happens, but it is a very real risk. So how do I add an extra leg of diversity to my retirement savings to hedge against that risk? Series EE bonds are the best answer I can find for someone like me who is just simple middle class investor. With Series EE bonds the government guarantees that your investment will double in 20 years. In other words, if you hold the bond to maturity, the government guarantees at the very least a 3.5% yield. These days that strikes as a great combination of risk/reward. As in there is virtually no risk and the reward is at least half way decent. In comparison a 30 year treasury bond yields about 2.5%.

Keep in mind, I'm still going to invest primarily in stocks. But I'm growing sick and tired of Wall Street and financial advisers telling people over the long term you can expect stocks to return 10% annual returns because "historically" that has always been the case. They say that like it goes all the way back to 3000BC. In fact the modern stock market has only existed for about 70 years (give or take). Moreover the stock market is become ever more dependent on Central banks throwing money out the door to juice the stock market. The result is both bonds and stocks keep go up in tandem (while bond yields go down). The diversity of bonds and stocks is weakening so I'm searching for extra diversity. Series EE bonds gives that to me.

The only problem is that I would want to invest in Series EE bonds through an IRA. Apparently IRA custodians like Fidelity, E-Trade, and Vanguard don't provide ways to invest in Series EE bonds. It appears you have to set up a self directed IRA to invest in Series EE bonds. I'm not sure how easy that is to do. And I have very little interest in investing in anything else through a self directed IRA such as real estate. But the very fact that Wall Street sets up road blocks to investing in Series EE bonds for retirement and keep them secret from the public makes me think all the more Series EE bonds are a pretty good idea.

Anyway, I'm curious what anyone else thinks of series EE bonds. Ironically the only reason most people know about them is as a way to finance college. Interest is tax free if used to pay for college. But that benefit doesn't apply to me.

The last 3 years inflation has been around 2% and recent EE Series bonds are earning an annual fixed rate of 0.10%. So your real rate of return is going to be solidly on the negative side.

“The only problem is that I would want to invest in Series EE bonds through an IRA. Apparently IRA custodians like Fidelity, E-Trade, and Vanguard don't provide ways to invest in Series EE bonds. It appears you have to set up a self directed IRA to invest in Series EE bonds. I'm not sure how easy that is to do. And I have very little interest in investing in anything else through a self directed IRA such as real estate. But the very fact that Wall Street sets up road blocks to investing in Series EE bonds for retirement and keep them secret from the public makes me think all the more Series EE bonds are a pretty good idea. “

Self-directed IRA just means that you direct the investments. What I think you may be confusing is acting as your own “custodian” for the assets. A custodian is an IRS approved entity allowed to segregate assets in a manner that shelters the earnings from tax liability. So theoretically what you are considering is possible, but I am assuming in a practical manner impossible. A better strategy in my view would be to ladder CDs or T-Bills for your safe money. I think you are trying to be too cute.

Igy

It’s pretty simple. See what Igy says to do, then do the opposite.

^Try the advice of Scary Crazy Igy Infatuated Guy to see if is practical to act as your own custodian. Make sure you post directly your response to SCIIG on whether your time was well spent. Of course keep in mind SCIIG doesn’t know his ass from a whole in the ground.

“Hole” as in a-hole

Igy,I know you’re still stinging from the depantsing I gave you last night, so I’m going to give you a break tonight. Good night.

Yea, sure SCIIG.

“A better strategy in my view would be to ladder CDs or T-Bills for your safe money. I think you are trying to be too cute.

Igy”

No one would argue against T-bills (or notes, or bonds), but no knowledgeable investor would recommend CDs.

I do it every day. Currently a 6 month CD yields more than a 6 month T-Bill or a 10 Year Treasury.

This reads like an epitaph

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I do it every day. Currently a 6 month CD yields more than a 6 month T-Bill or a 10 Year Treasury.

Hey the 10 year is back over 2% now!

I'm just waiting for the ultimate Fed action (hear me out on this one) : as the economy slows even more, despite super low Federal funds rate, the Fed will put it's top minds to the task of deciding how to keep this expansion going. They will conclude (as they should) that the best way to proceed is for the government to forgive all student loan debt. With the overnight rate so low, no one will really want to save, so it will free up massive amounts of money for people to spend on stuff and/or a house. Trump will be feeling the heat as election time gets closer and closer, so he'll agree to do it for a huge bump in the polls!

I think it could happen

Does that mean that I get a rebate for the $75,000 I paid down on my children’s student loans? Oh, and my daughter paid-off another $60,000. How about her?

Nope, no rebates. Just current debt holders will be forgiven.

That ought to make responsible borrowers happy.