Good job, comrade. Keep the fake news coming!
Home flipping is at a 9 year high but I'm not sure if it's a good, bad, or neutral thing yet. Home flippers are basically the reason the housing bubble burst in 2006 and 2007 though.
SP500 up over 1% at lunch on Monday.
The larger scenario is playing out. Will be a great day for my b&h if the current action holds.
ok, so we're right back at near 52 week highs, near the top of the 1.5 year trading range.
this is why trading is hard. Do we sell now, expecting the market to fall back yet again?
or is the end of the trading range and we break out to new highs?
Probably ol'Racket could devise a straddle to make money either way. Which I'd expect to happen...either break out much higher or fall back again.
Racket wrote:
Home flipping is at a 9 year high but I'm not sure if it's a good, bad, or neutral thing yet. Home flippers are basically the reason the housing bubble burst in 2006 and 2007 though.
Flipping profits down 12% from a year ago, and yes it is a bad thing. Bad, just like stock market speculation.
https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/flipping/q1-2019-home-flipping-report/agip wrote:
Probably ol'Racket could devise a straddle to make money either way.
Working on it now but my guess is a drift back down to the lower end of this trading range. Everyone is expecting the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later but I think it could come later than the market would like (maybe in Q4). Also, now that Trump was "secured a deal" with Mexico, I'm sure Canada will be threatened next.
Also I get the feeling that there's just unprecedented insider trading going on in the White House with all this Twitter fueled up and down action.
Also I'm going to pull the trigger on wheat and corn futures soon. Farmers are way way behind on planting because of rain and flooding that lasted way longer than expected in the Spring planting season so I think that could lead to a shortage during the Fall harvest which could be bullish. I think. Australia better not come out of nowhere with a huge crop yield.
Snore.
Are bears about to become an endangered species?
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 10, 2019. The top performer is China's Shanghai SSE with a 15.69% gain and in second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 15.01%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 14.78%. Coming in last is Tokyo's Nikkei with a gain of 5.59%.
The more managed the markets, the less speculative.
The only things that have no speculative component are things that have value to you personally, and that you never intend to sell or trade...other than that, you are involved in a market, all of which have a speculative component.
At the present time, and for the past 10 years, equity markets have been no more speculative than any other markets, including bonds and RE. In fact, equities are far less speculative than much RE...and even bonds, if you suspect ratings agencies, as I (rightly) do.
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
More management = less speculative. The gov response to HFT has not been in kind, it has been regulatory, which also amounts to a smoothing function. The gov is heavily dependent on market performance and rates, they want to reduce total speculation.
Like it or not, the gov is managing all markets—gov bonds obviously, other bonds through rating regulations and oversight, equities through PPT, fins through QE, rates, IOER, and Basel, RE through rates, regulation, and taxation, currency through miney supply and banking regulation, etc.
Cryptos have an unmanaged-by-gov speculative component, as far as we know...but don’t bet on it. FOR SURE they are probing and honing their management/interventional tools.
S&P up about 0.6% so far today. IMO break-even on the s&p today would be a victory.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
The more managed the markets, the less speculative.
The only things that have no speculative component are things that have value to you personally, and that you never intend to sell or trade...other than that, you are involved in a market, all of which have a speculative component.
At the present time, and for the past 10 years, equity markets have been no more speculative than any other markets, including bonds and RE. In fact, equities are far less speculative than much RE...and even bonds, if you suspect ratings agencies, as I (rightly) do.
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
More management = less speculative. The gov response to HFT has not been in kind, it has been regulatory, which also amounts to a smoothing function. The gov is heavily dependent on market performance and rates, they want to reduce total speculation.
Like it or not, the gov is managing all markets—gov bonds obviously, other bonds through rating regulations and oversight, equities through PPT, fins through QE, rates, IOER, and Basel, RE through rates, regulation, and taxation, currency through miney supply and banking regulation, etc.
Cryptos have an unmanaged-by-gov speculative component, as far as we know...but don’t bet on it. FOR SURE they are probing and honing their management/interventional tools.
S&P up about 0.6% so far today. IMO break-even on the s&p today would be a victory.
lol you think the government is managing something as complex as the US equity markets? The government couldn't manage a 7-11 without a trillion tonnes of paperwork and 1000 middle managers. Wall Street is managing itself through a collaborative effort called "let's all get rich as fvck" by a few big money investors at the top.
Racket wrote:
Sprintgeezer wrote:
The more managed the markets, the less speculative.
The only things that have no speculative component are things that have value to you personally, and that you never intend to sell or trade...other than that, you are involved in a market, all of which have a speculative component.
At the present time, and for the past 10 years, equity markets have been no more speculative than any other markets, including bonds and RE. In fact, equities are far less speculative than much RE...and even bonds, if you suspect ratings agencies, as I (rightly) do.
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
More management = less speculative. The gov response to HFT has not been in kind, it has been regulatory, which also amounts to a smoothing function. The gov is heavily dependent on market performance and rates, they want to reduce total speculation.
Like it or not, the gov is managing all markets—gov bonds obviously, other bonds through rating regulations and oversight, equities through PPT, fins through QE, rates, IOER, and Basel, RE through rates, regulation, and taxation, currency through miney supply and banking regulation, etc.
Cryptos have an unmanaged-by-gov speculative component, as far as we know...but don’t bet on it. FOR SURE they are probing and honing their management/interventional tools.
S&P up about 0.6% so far today. IMO break-even on the s&p today would be a victory.
lol you think the government is managing something as complex as the US equity markets? The government couldn't manage a 7-11 without a trillion tonnes of paperwork and 1000 middle managers. Wall Street is managing itself through a collaborative effort called "let's all get rich as fvck" by a few big money investors at the top.
ROTFLMAO
What Racket said. When I attend board meetings and disvover that not even board members all have and act on the same information, I know that there is no consistency at the helm.
Having said that I do agree that there is an attempt at management, but it is tinkering around the edges, and not done for any public benefit. The government is lost in all of this, totally eclipsed by those few “fvcks” on Wall St.
Just sold my AAPL for about 3% gain.
BYND tanking on JPM downgrade.
Just bought some with the AAPL proceeds. Might try to obtain paper stock certificates so that I can give them as gifts to vegan kid friends.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
.
if only Sprintgeezer knew that long term US treasuries outperformed stocks for the last 20 years.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
The more managed the markets, the less speculative.
The only things that have no speculative component are things that have value to you personally, and that you never intend to sell or trade...other than that, you are involved in a market, all of which have a speculative component.
At the present time, and for the past 10 years, equity markets have been no more speculative than any other markets, including bonds and RE. In fact, equities are far less speculative than much RE...and even bonds, if you suspect ratings agencies, as I (rightly) do.
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
More management = less speculative. The gov response to HFT has not been in kind, it has been regulatory, which also amounts to a smoothing function. The gov is heavily dependent on market performance and rates, they want to reduce total speculation.
Like it or not, the gov is managing all markets—gov bonds obviously, other bonds through rating regulations and oversight, equities through PPT, fins through QE, rates, IOER, and Basel, RE through rates, regulation, and taxation, currency through miney supply and banking regulation, etc.
Cryptos have an unmanaged-by-gov speculative component, as far as we know...but don’t bet on it. FOR SURE they are probing and honing their management/interventional tools.
S&P up about 0.6% so far today. IMO break-even on the s&p today would be a victory.
I am sure most investors believe as you. Fed policy is directed specifically toward encouraging investors to move up the risk curve. Hard for me to see how this is not more dangerous to capital preservation than less so. Of course these theories of how the market is “less risky this time” come at the top of every speculative market. In regards to valuations of other asset classes, I suspect stocks to be the most overvalued, followed by real estate and then bonds.
Racket wrote:
Are bears about to become an endangered species?
No, really don’t think so. I think bulls will get killed by year end.
Racket wrote:
Sprintgeezer wrote:
The more managed the markets, the less speculative.
The only things that have no speculative component are things that have value to you personally, and that you never intend to sell or trade...other than that, you are involved in a market, all of which have a speculative component.
At the present time, and for the past 10 years, equity markets have been no more speculative than any other markets, including bonds and RE. In fact, equities are far less speculative than much RE...and even bonds, if you suspect ratings agencies, as I (rightly) do.
Gov bonds are less speculative—you KNOW you will realize a certain negative real rate of return.
More management = less speculative. The gov response to HFT has not been in kind, it has been regulatory, which also amounts to a smoothing function. The gov is heavily dependent on market performance and rates, they want to reduce total speculation.
Like it or not, the gov is managing all markets—gov bonds obviously, other bonds through rating regulations and oversight, equities through PPT, fins through QE, rates, IOER, and Basel, RE through rates, regulation, and taxation, currency through miney supply and banking regulation, etc.
Cryptos have an unmanaged-by-gov speculative component, as far as we know...but don’t bet on it. FOR SURE they are probing and honing their management/interventional tools.
S&P up about 0.6% so far today. IMO break-even on the s&p today would be a victory.
lol you think the government is managing something as complex as the US equity markets? The government couldn't manage a 7-11 without a trillion tonnes of paperwork and 1000 middle managers. Wall Street is managing itself through a collaborative effort called "let's all get rich as fvck" by a few big money investors at the top.
+1. The government could not even develop a working website for Obamacare. They had to hire outsiders to get the thing up and running.