...is why we're near all time highs?
...is why we're near all time highs?
"Both consumers and CEOs think pretty positive about the U.S. economy."
- Source - Xinhua/Comtex (published 4:45 am).
I bought 50 shares in the DOW back in the Spring of '06. Things were going great, and then things started getting low. I still had hope regardless of what other investors told me. I was willing to take the risk. Now I am a destitute homeless man restricted to access of a computer in a public library.
Tl;dr I hate the stock market
In one sense, the global economy is dependent on the US consumer. Americans wouldn't believe how little the ROW can get by on, and live just fine. Chinese are starting to spend also. The world awaits the development of Africa, to bring more consumers on line.
Yes, I know "the US economy" isn't just the US consumer.
Does anybody believe Boeing's recent world fleet projection? Maybe I should load up on just Boeing, Airbus, and their suppliers.
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:Thud.
Down over 100, but recovering. No big deal, currently at 16,879
well ok, but that's not the point.
better to say 'agip made $50 on his gold speculation'
I bet agip's math is off somewhere. Unless he's claiming nearly a $5 million portfolio, which I doubt he has accumulated.
Two months ago, I posted that the Dow was approaching a Bollinger Band squeeze that could happen if the Dow stayed within its narrow trading range for a few more days.
The squeeze never occurred because the Dow moved up before the Band could narrow. So, no signal.
Well, the Dow is once again approaching a BB squeeze, but a signal would ONLY occur if the Dow continues to trade in a narrow range around or below 17,000 for the next 3-4 trading sessions.
Briefly, the BB is a trading range two standard deviations above and below the average volatility of the past 20 trading days. A "squeeze" occurs when volatility (i.e., the width of the band) narrows to its lowest point in six months or more. The last squeeze was six months ago in Mid-January, after which the Dow dropped 1000 points. A squeeze can be bullish or bearish. You can't tell until the market breaks above or below the band squeeze.
Fun to watch for since it's relatively accurate and only occurs 2-3 times every couple of years.
Maserati wrote:
Does anybody believe Boeing's recent world fleet projection?
36,770
http://www.boeing.com/fisky wrote:
...
Well, the Dow is once again approaching a BB squeeze, but a signal would ONLY occur if the Dow continues to trade in a narrow range around or below 17,000 for the next 3-4 trading sessions.
Briefly, the BB is a trading range two standard deviations above and below the average volatility of the past 20 trading days. A "squeeze" occurs when volatility (i.e., the width of the band) narrows to its lowest point in six months or more. The last squeeze was six months ago in Mid-January, after which the Dow dropped 1000 points. A squeeze can be bullish or bearish. You can't tell until the market breaks above or below the band squeeze.
Fun to watch for since it's relatively accurate and only occurs 2-3 times every couple of years.
Interesting, thanks.
Question - is there a target price level for the "squeeze", both up & down... assuming that it does stay in the narrow range for 3-4 days, and then breaks either bullishly or bearishly? If there are targets, what are they?
New Math wrote:
agip wrote:'
well ok, but that's not the point.
better to say 'agip made $50 on his gold speculation'
I bet agip's math is off somewhere. Unless he's claiming nearly a $5 million portfolio, which I doubt he has accumulated.
Haven't bothered looking at the alleged mathematical error, but why would you doubt a $5M net worth? It's not as difficult to obtain as you might think. The first $500K is the most difficult and may take a decade or more to accumulate, but it really takes off from there. It may be that agip has 30-40 years of investing behind him and is into the multi-millions now. I wouldn't doubt it.
fisky wrote:
A squeeze can be bullish or bearish. You can't tell until the market breaks above or below the band squeeze.
So what good is knowing about it?
Hingle, sometimes it is worth understanding something, in order to more informedly ignore it.
Maserati wrote:
Hingle, sometimes it is worth understanding something, in order to more informedly ignore it.
Maz, 99% of all methods, schemes, inside tips, 'discoveries', and breathless proclamations spewed forth by investment gurus is not worth even one second's attention. This includes virtually everything on this thread.
New Math wrote:
fisky wrote:...
Well, the Dow is once again approaching a BB squeeze, but a signal would ONLY occur if the Dow continues to trade in a narrow range around or below 17,000 for the next 3-4 trading sessions.
Briefly, the BB is a trading range two standard deviations above and below the average volatility of the past 20 trading days. A "squeeze" occurs when volatility (i.e., the width of the band) narrows to its lowest point in six months or more. The last squeeze was six months ago in Mid-January, after which the Dow dropped 1000 points. A squeeze can be bullish or bearish. You can't tell until the market breaks above or below the band squeeze.
Fun to watch for since it's relatively accurate and only occurs 2-3 times every couple of years.
Interesting, thanks.
Question - is there a target price level for the "squeeze", both up & down... assuming that it does stay in the narrow range for 3-4 days, and then breaks either bullishly or bearishly? If there are targets, what are they?
No, so you have to use something else to determine the likely target. In the case of the DOW, the BB squeezes since 2011 have been more than 800 points over the next two months. In some cases the move continued more than two months. From memory, I think the biggest move in the past three years was maybe 1400 points. (I'd have to look at the charts to be sure.) You'd have to use some other indicator to get a target... maybe the 200 day MA on the downside, currently at 16183. That's assuming the breakout is down.
fisky wrote:
No, so you have to use something else to determine the likely target. In the case of the DOW, the BB squeezes since 2011 have been more than 800 points over the next two months. In some cases the move continued more than two months. From memory, I think the biggest move in the past three years was maybe 1400 points. (I'd have to look at the charts to be sure.) You'd have to use some other indicator to get a target... maybe the 200 day MA on the downside, currently at 16183. That's assuming the breakout is down.
Ok, so what you're saying is that the Bollinger Band squeeze predicts movement of the DOW either up or down by an indeterminate amount, very helpful, good stuff
FYI, here's a link to an article on BIS statements, that talk about the same types of things that I watch, of particular import to my other thread on "What to do with money now, assuming a huge crash is coming?"
link to other thread:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5638789
Irrational markets. Lots of leveraging at current low rates.
Asia's taking off. Hope you all bought on the sub 17K dip.
Up a sustained 130 today, Monday.
Destabilizing effects of liquidity moving from bank lending to bond issuance, especially in developing countries but everywhere as banks deleverage somewhat, will manifest in capital markets.
I have to say, to some extent I think we (global capital markets) have to some extent come to the end of the road, at least temporarily. Risks are not being satisfactorily priced.
My 2 cents, off to lunch for some artificially cheap chicken!
dumb wrote:
fisky wrote:No, so you have to use something else to determine the likely target. In the case of the DOW, the BB squeezes since 2011 have been more than 800 points over the next two months. In some cases the move continued more than two months. From memory, I think the biggest move in the past three years was maybe 1400 points. (I'd have to look at the charts to be sure.) You'd have to use some other indicator to get a target... maybe the 200 day MA on the downside, currently at 16183. That's assuming the breakout is down.
Ok, so what you're saying is that the Bollinger Band squeeze predicts movement of the DOW either up or down by an indeterminate amount, very helpful, good stuff
Okay, first, today's move up is going to widen the band, so it no longer looks like a BB squeeze in the near future.
The reason it's something to watch is that this indicator has been accurate something like 80% of the time since 2010 and EVERY TIME it has preceded a move of 800-1,400 points over the next eight weeks, or about 1,000 points over the next two months. That's 1000/17000, or a 5.9% move.
The direction is apparent within a week after the squeeze.
Okay, saying every time with a technical indicator is pretty iffy. I'd have to check to see for sure how accurate it has been, but when I first saw this indicator last winter, I was very impressed and decided to follow it and share with the rest of the posters here.
Again... no call now or likely in the near future because the band will widen after today's new high.
Phew, that's a load off my mind!
Down 16 so far today after an initial bump up. Trivial.
Spent yesterday and this morning evaluating a community bank and its associated holding company, will continue throughout the day. I have specific reasons, but I would encourage everybody to consider doing some of their banking with a community bank, for small and limited accounts. This one is so simple that it is financially transparent, as is its parent holding company. Try getting THAT with a national bank.
Anyway, just think about the right tool for the right job.