In my little exercise I looked at performances at last year's conference, and results from this year, and projected a time. No outrageous improvements, but also I'm assuming everyone basically peaks, unless there was some drastic downward trend recently. Then I sorted by time and scored. I was surprised to see that Carleton won this theoretical race, which is kind of exciting. It would be fun to see an upset.
Of course, in reality, some individuals will have surprising breakout performances, and some will choke. Last year the weather was bad and the times were slow. These guesses are presuming the weather is decent. It's still early to tell what the forecast will be for Saturday.
1 Carleton 40
2 St. John's 46
3 Macalester 95
4 Hamline 112
5 St. Thomas 116
6 Bethel 123
7 St. Olaf 164
8 Gustavus 196
1 St. Johns Chris Erichsen, Sr 25:20
2 St. Johns Kelly Fermoyle, Sr 25:45
3 Bethel Dan Greeno, So 25:51
4 Carleton Joe Sepe, Sr 25:59
5 Carleton Quentin Kennedy, Sr 26:04
6 Bethel Carl Gladitsch, Jr 26:12
7 Carleton John Nowinski, Sr 26:16
8 St. Johns Cam Green, Sr 26:18
9 St. Olaf David Swanson, Sr 26:18
10 Hamline Dan Steinbrecher,Sr 26:20
11 Carleton Andy Jahn, Sr 26:22
12 Macalester Tim Burns, Jr 26:23
13 Carleton Charlie Gamble, So 26:25
14 St. Johns Darren Larsen, Sr 26:25
15 St. Thomas Matt Baumeester, Jr 26:26
16 Macalester Wade Ekstrom, So 26:27
17 Macalester Martin Mudry, Jr 26:32
18 Hamline Ian Bauer, So 26:33
19 St. Thomas Neil Atzinger, Sr 26:33
20 Augsburg Brent Haglund, So 26:34
21 St. Johns Zach Hunter, Jr 26:38
22 Hamline Jon Murphy, Jr 26:40
23 St. Thomas Brian Sames, Jr 26:41
24 Macalester Kyle Braam, Sr 26:42
25 Bethel Tyler Hinrichs, Jr 26:45
26 Macalester Matt Wegman, Sr 26:48
27 St. Johns Mitch Vanbruggen,Sr 26:48
28 St. Thomas Kyle Brandon, Jr 26:49
29 Gustavus Chris deLaubenfels 26:50
30 Hamline Kevin Groh, Jr 26:52
Great post. I would put Haglund higher though.
no way will times be that fast.
You may be right. But I also think it's not unreasonable to predict that this field might be the fastest since '02. I think my prediction for Erichson is conservative, but he'll be running alone. He'll most likely run faster at regions and nationals. Weather permitting, I'm confident about the top 20. I can see after 20 the times might be slower to account for the runners who don't run their absolute best on Saturday.
06 1-26:02, 10-26:42, 20-27:00, 30-27:28
05 1-25:50, 10-26:30, 20-26:56, 30-27:32
04 1-26:10, 10-27:08, 20-27:48, 30-28:13
03 1-25:32, 10-26:12, 20-26:41, 30-27:04
02 1-25:19, 10-26:28, 20-26:48, 30-27:08
The top 15 or so runners in our conference have been very consistent this season, and it's pretty easy to predict their results. I think the team outcomes will depend largely on how the #4 & 5 runners do for the top teams.
FINAL SCORE
st thomas - 25
macalester - 30
TOP 10 INDIVIDUAL FINISHERS
1. Matt Boumeester, ust, 15:33
2. Neil Atzinger, ust, 15:36
3. Wade Ekstrom, mac, 15:37
4. Martin Mudry, mac, 15:44
5. Brian Sames, ust, 15:48
6. Matt Wegmann, mac, 15:49
7. Kyle Braam, mac, 15:51
8. Kyle Brandon, ust, 15:58
9. Seth Rosvold, ust, 16:00
10. Tim Burns, mac, 16:04
11. Rorak Hooten, ust, 16:18
12. Nick George, ust, 16:21
13. Greg Dowe, ust, 16: 29
14. Dale Dybvig, mac, 16:29
15. Jason Mansur, ust, 16:32
16. Jon Bassen, mac, 16:32
17. Mike Connell, ust, 16:33
18. Jakob Wartman, mac, 16:39
19. Zak Morrow, mac, 16:46
20. Nick Michalak, ust, 16:47
21. Joe Barter, mac, 16:52
22. Scott Smith, ust, 16:53
23. Nick Carpenter, mac, 16:53
24. George Williams, ust, 16:54
25. Franz Meyer, mac, 16:55
26. David Erstad, ust, 16:56
27.Joe Schubert, mac, 16:59
28. Josh Springer, mac, 17:01
29. Adam Bidwell, mac, 17:11
30. Avery Bowron, mac, 17:19
31. Tony Gerten, ust, 17:23
32. Adam Wetsoka, ust, 17:24
33. Erik Baumgartner, ust, 17:46
34. Carleton Hanson, mac, 18:14
35. John Wanzlger, ust, 18:15
36. Taren Kingser, mac, 18:24
37. Will Kennedy, mac, 19:10
38. Steve Arves, ust, 19:35
39. Michael Sikivie, mac, 19:41
40. Victor Llanque-Zonta, mac, 20:28
haglund is a choker and will screw the pooch come MIAC
I love the fact that you don't even have Noack, Franta, Stevens, or Lowder from SJU in the top 30. And I have to agree with whoever said it before . . there is no way the times are going to be that fast. Predicting times like that makes me wonder if you have ever run the course, or even seen it before.
A couple things to look out for is I believe they changed the course just a bit so things might be a little faster as the hill isn't there, but it will still require for people to actually go out at a decent pace this year. Also the weather for sat looks dang near perfect and I don't think it is supposed to rain at all this week so hopefully that golf course will harden up and we will have a great weekend....Good Luck to all the teams!
um, yeeaah wrote:
I love the fact that you don't even have Noack, Franta, Stevens, or Lowder from SJU in the top 30. And I have to agree with whoever said it before . . there is no way the times are going to be that fast. Predicting times like that makes me wonder if you have ever run the course, or even seen it before.
Look above at the times for 2002 and 2003. The times are hardly outrageous, unless the course was changed since then to be made more difficult. I ran Como in '90, but don't know if the course has changed. It seemed faster than the ones at St. Olaf and Carleton.
I don't know what's up with Noack. It looks like he hasn't run since Sep 30. Lowder ran okay at St. Olaf, and Stevens rank mediocre. Neither ran at Jim Drews, where Franta ran an unexceptional 28:05. If Noack runs he'd be in the top 30. One of the others may make the top 30, but I doubt as scorers.
This isn't directed solely at "um, yeeaah" -- what's up with people not using registered names? Seems to me like a convenient way to avoid embarrassing yourselves. It'd be nice to see some people grow some stones rather than throw them anonymously. I remember MIAC runners from all the teams being really nice guys. Have the number of pissant little backbiters increased, or is it simply the false courage of posting anonymously that brings out the raging assholes? This forum really needs to require registering to be able to post.
How did they change the course to take out the hill? Any links to the new course you speak of? Just curious.
The reason I post anonymously is because I don't feel like taking the time and effort to sign up and then log in every time.
They installed a lake (like a water hazard--not just due to rain) where we used to run. We still run up the big hill, but instead of running down into that little valley and then up the other side of the hill, we will run on the ridge where all the spectators used to stand. It essentially cuts out the 2nd hill on that loop--it definitely makes the course faster.
Conference preview:
http://www.miac-online.org/News/mcross/2007/10/19/mccprev07.asp?path=mcross
Mac's Wade Ekstrom will be missing the race due to a family wedding. Was that what happened last year with Brandon Gleason? His absence probably cost them the championship, but he returned at regions placing 4th.
There's no mention of Noack, not sure if he's injured or what.
Go St Thomas, all the other schools are gay.
dont ask dumb questions, especially when you already know the answer. you follow basically everything that happens in the miac since your posts make up 25 percent of this thread, and since you know gleason took 4th at regionals, youd probably realize that gleason also ran confernece, just not as fast. dont make excuses for the johnnies losing last year.
I could see Erichsen going 25:20 under good conditions, what I was referring to was all the guys under 26:30. The MIAC is just not as strong as it was in 2002-2004. Just look at the track times, it is is proof in the pudding.
One of my favorite aspects of this race is that you always get a few guys who are bad/mediocre freshman year and manage to improve into the All-Conf rankings by their junior or senior year. Ex: Kreger,Myran,Hauck,Metzdorff
Who do you expect to make the big jump to the MIAC elite this year?
Here's a challenge, try answering a question without being a snide little shit. That's Hamline, not St. John's, genius. I assumed he didn't run because he didn't even score, but now I see in individual results he was their 8th man that day. I'm not interested in excuses, but his choking was certainly a key reason for their loss.
shup up