1. It is not at at ridiculous, seeing as the guy HASN'T WON A MAJOR 1500/MILE SINCE AUGUST 2024. (19 months and counting.)
2. Nope. There are many examples to the contrary.
2a. Kessler is clearly improving in the event. Hocker is not. (He hasn't sniffed 3:27, 3:28, or even 3:29 since his "magic" run in Paris. 🧪
2b. Nuguse has won 1500s since Aug 2024. Hocker has not. In 2025 Nuguse racked up Ws from Wannamaker in Feb to the Diamond League circuit in Aug to Fifth Avenue Mile in Sep. Hocker lost every 1500/mile he ran in 2025.
2c. See the difference?
Do you not believe that Hocker would have beaten Nuguse (and the rest) had he raced the mile at Millrose rather than the 3k / 2 mile?
I feel bad for Hocker. He has so many glazers on this site that it's really just setting unrealistic expectations. He is still good in his own right and of course is one of the greatest US distance runners ever.
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He lost at the 2025 USA 1500m final, he didn't make the final at the WC, and now has lost the indoor USA championship and did not make the team. I still like him though, just not the posters on this site.
If the question is Jakob vs the 1500 field at USAs after a loaded 3K night before I don’t think it’s a lock. Maybe he wins 70% of the time, maybe more like 50-50. That’s where we disagree. He like Hocker would be the favorite, but in indoor track with 11 competitors (I think 9 of them with the advantage of being fresh) things get less predictable. It’s not about beating one athlete persay, but beating the field. In a 3:36 race, there’re many guys capable of closing fast, and there’re many pitfalls.
The thing is that in a field like that, Jakob wouldn't let it be a 3:36 race, at least not for him. He would run away from the field and win in whatever time it took -- a 3:33 probably would have had him alone on the stretch if it was him running and not Hocker.
Hocker, on the other hand, seems to get distracted and let the pack come by him. He counts on his kick to come back from this, but his confidence do to so seemingly isn't matched by his abilities.
If the world's top 10 raced in two weeks, I would bet money on Kessler and Nader over Hocker.
No question.
That's not who I consider the best. The best is who is most likely to win the next world championship (or Ultimate Championship/Olympics). Hoey a month or two ago may have been in the best 800 shape in the world, but I wouldn't consider him the best 800m runner in the world.
In predicting who's most likely to win the Ultimate Championships this year, I'd say it's between Hocker, Nader, and Laros.
Hocker has been in the best peak shape the last couple years imo, he looked the best in the semi-final last year (and confirmed his fitness with the 5000) and was easily the best in 2024.
Nader's kick at world champs last year was underrated, however his tactics of always being mid/back of the pack seem to hurt him, I'd take Hocker as slightly better than Nader in a medium paced race and much better in a fast race.
Laros is the biggest question mark, it seems he was injured during the winter as he said he running more and more each week 3 weeks ago in an instagram video and was doing assisted running (not sure what it's called, but makes you have less impact). I do think he has the highest potential, but due to his injury I'd still favor Hocker, who has shown great fitness indoors.
Good analysis. Sounds like we agree on who's up there. I would just add Kessler after that 2000.
George Mills is an elite time trial merchant no doubt and a scrappy racer…who moved up to the 5,000 because he couldn’t finish well enough in the 1500.
Did you just describe Cole Hocker? har har
Based on all evidence since Aug 2024, that is a perfect description of Hocker.