Financial motivation is poweful, but plenty cheat for glory.
Chepngetich was on the top of the likely list before this because 2:09 was such an outlier time for her and history. Kipchoge or Jakob may be doping, but what they've done or are doing fits with what they've always done. With slow incremental improvements mostly in line with super shoes and evidence of crazy talent in their teens. Kipyegon is the same. Hassan, well maybe not so much I'm afraid.
Dropping your time by 5 min at age 30? It was just a matter of time until it all fell apart it seems.
Not defending her, but her 2:09 was not so much an outlier based on her history.
Her history indicates that she was a very successful and accomplished runner that had never failed a drug test before running 2:09 in Chicago. She had won 8 prior marathons, including the World Championship marathon. She had a more recent history of going out very hard and fast in marathons (sub world record pace) but then fading.
In addition, she had run 15 half marathons. This included setting a world record in the half marathon of 1:04:02 in 2021. She won 8 of the half marathons she ran and broke 1:07 six times.
Both her marathon and half marathon times indicate a general progression/trend of faster and faster times.
Again not defending her, but Chepngetich did not come out of nowhere and she generally lowered her half and full marathon times as she became more experienced.
It seems likely that she was targeting world records in both those distances as she went on and it took her a few attempts to get there. Note how she ran the four Chicago Marathons in 2021-2024 below which indicated that she was likely targeting the world record in those races. Her splits during the 2024 races were not much of an outlier based on her approach to the three prior years.
Every world record can be viewed as an outlier to a certain extent.
Her major race history:
2018 won Istanbul Marathon in 2:18
2022 2nd Paris Marathon 2:22
2019 won Dubai Marathon in 2:17:08
2019 won World Championship Marathon in 2:32. This was in Doha and run in incredibly hot and humid conditions
2020 third in London Marathon in 2:22
2021 won Istanbul Half Marathon in new world record time of 1:04:02. She had run 15 half marathons in the 5 years before this. She won 7 of those other half marathons and her times indicated a normal progression of improvement until she ran 1:04. She broke 1:07 six times.
2021 won Chicago Marathon in 2:22, but she did so by going out really fast (67 min at half marathon) before fading.
2022 won Nagoya Women only Marathon in 2:22. Ran negative splits.
2022 won Chicago Marathon in 2:14:18. This was a personal best by 2:50 and only 14 seconds slower than the world record. She went out incredibly fast and well under world record pace (49:49 at 10 miles, 65 at the half) before slowing.
2023 won Nagoya Women only Marathon in 2:18
2023 2nd in Chicago Marathon in 2:15:37. She again started incredibly fast (31:05 at 10k, 65 at the half) before slowing and being passed by eventual winner Sifan Hassan.
2024 won Chicago Marathon in 2:09:56 a personal best by 4:22. She started faster ( 30:14 at 10k and 64 at the half) and slowed less.
the down votes tell the tale.
let me none the less smash this "analysis"
this chick up to the age of 27 ran the half in 107 average in her prime years 5 years prior.
her half marathon splits in the "record" were 104.56
up to age 27, she averaged 220 marathon. her best in 2021 2022 was 222 and 222
in 2022 she hit the PEDs full meal deal.
and improved 10 to 12 minutes in the marathon for the 209 PR at age 30.
I’m glad we finally nailed one of these big dawgs. Track has become such a laughing stock and pervasive cheating has never been so obvious. The 2:09 was such a disgusting performance, and so many other performances like those have rendered the whole sport meaningless.
I don’t care about any american runner who is taking the opportunity to virtue signal or paint themselves as a victim. Their silence was loud when Shelby was caught and it shows their hypocrisy. Emma branding Ruth as a cheater for a positive test while still liking Shelby’s posts, like I’m supposed to feel bad for you. American distance runners proved long ago that they don’t care about cheating and most of them engage in it too. They only care about foreign cheating.
right dude
ALL the women's records are FULL MEAL DEAL PED.
more drugs than Arnold even dreamed of.
i do think Athing Mu was a potentially clean one to set a record.
the only one I've ever seen actually.
this is speculation, of course.
they have to have the athletes, once they hit the top 100 or something, piss every week in a vial and put in an official fridge. they can tell by DNA, sodium content, chemistry if it's tampered, and also do the regular testing.
if the athlete sets a record.
then analyze the archived urine samples for the lead up period of 6 months or a year before you ratify.
Jonathan can absorb this idea, and maybe give it some traction/
Chepngetich is far from the first athlete represented by sports agent Federico Rosa to test positive for a banned substance. Rosa represented Rita Jeptoo (the three-time Boston Marathon and two-time Boston Marathon champion who tested positive for EPO in 2014), Jemima Sumgong (the 2016 Olympic champion who tested positive for EPO in 2017 but still retained her gold medal. Her suspension was later extended to eight years for tampering with the anti-doping process), Lawrence Cherono (the 2019 Boston Marathon and Chicago Marathon champion who received a seven-year ban in 2024 for testing positive for trimetazidine and then tampering), Sarah Chepchirchir (the 2017 Tokyo Marathon champion who was banned four years for violations found in her Athlete Biological Passport and then tested positive for testosterone upon her return in 2024), Titus Ekiru (the 2:02:57 marathoner who tested positive for triamcinolone acetonide, pethidine and then tampered with the process and received a 10-year ban), and most recently Sheila Chelangat (the 16th place finisher in the Paris Olympics 10,000m final and 1:06:06 half marathoner who is provisionally suspended following a positive test for EPO).
Rosa defended by Asbel Kiprop who one year later gets tested positive
“However the Italian has been defended by one of his athletes, Asbel Kiprop, who is the reigning 1,500m world champion. Kiprop - who has a vehement anti-doping stance - said he had worked with Mr Rosa since 2008 and never seen any evidence of doping. "What I can tell, with my own judgement, is that Federico is innocent. With due process, I think justice is going to prevail, if there was doping, they would have given me first because many times I have attempted to run the world record and I'm not getting it. They'd have given it to break the world record," he added”
Consider SML. Maybe she's doping but she had a long history of great performances year after year. There really were no anomalous patterns.
Rosa is a tricky case because he represents so many top athletes. An increasing penalty for each additional case. Also, certain doping cases are more important. I would ban all marathon he coaches and suspect most all here would concur.
A repeated call for retroactive complete bans are inappropriate in a world of false positives. Track and Field News automatically takes out all results from the doping year, but they use a calendar year. Marathons are a more spread out event with races typically before and after the (outdoor) track season. Use 12 months!
We were all just supposed to pretend like a 2:09 marathoner not breaking 32 minutes for 10k was normal. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
Like Wanyonyi? Like Koech? Like Kipy....
oh no wait, it's only the "crappy" ones that cheat right? The ones desperate to get up to the "level" of their elite countrymen and women.
What I want to know is how World Athletics still has agents like Frederico Rosa accredited given the volume of doping related sh-t his athletes have been involved in now for literally decades.
I think it doesn't make sense to blame an agent for 3% of his clients being dopers. As an agent for so many athletes you mostly get them on high profile races and that's it. How involved will an agent be with 100 athletes simultaneously especially when they are from different countries.
I wonder if there is any contractual language in the Chicago appearance contract that would allow them (Chicago Marathon) to nullify the result. Then there is no time a WR could be based on.
They'd have to nullify the results for the whole field - basically decertify the race. Would diminish real accomplishments to do so. But you have to wonder if it might just be worth it. Thing is you'd assume another doper would use Chicago for a pay day so too many would stay away if they ever did that.
Are the dopers and their agents going to give their prize and appearance money back to the race organizers?
I would just ban Rosa for life from the sport and make him serve serious time in prison or a labor camp. We need to get tough here to clean out the source of problem. Race organizers should not accept any athlete trained or managed by Rosa from this day on.
You would put an 80+ year old in a labor camp for doping athletes in track and field? Like for real?
Absolutely - the exercise would do him good. And the younger Rosa is considerably overweight so even more reason for him to be incarerated in a labor camp. It is for their benefit as well as the benefit of the sport - a 360 win.
In addition to that, why wouldn't meet organizers add an article/clause to their contract that the WA-certified manager to some degree (have to figure out how much) is liable for paying back prize money and orher fees after a doping bust.
Curious what this substance can mask and what the elimination time curve looks like. I could research this but feel a bit lazy today. Hoping somebody else did.
We were all just supposed to pretend like a 2:09 marathoner not breaking 32 minutes for 10k was normal. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
Like Wanyonyi? Like Koech? Like Kipy....
oh no wait, it's only the "crappy" ones that cheat right? The ones desperate to get up to the "level" of their elite countrymen and women.
What I want to know is how World Athletics still has agents like Frederico Rosa accredited given the volume of doping related sh-t his athletes have been involved in now for literally decades.
Didn't you know!? The Kenya society is very highly corrupt and so parts of the World Athletics as well.
Rojo - please, plese, please do not let this thread get "rekrunnered". He stated his opinion and that should be enough. We don't need dozens of posts on it. Please do not let him hijack this thread which is what inevitably happens once he starts posting. And yes, nobody should be engaging with him either.
Thank you!
Seconded! This is a huge deal, the most ridiculous of all world records, and it would be nice to read the thread without rekrunners nonsense and the inevitable 8 pages of the same people having the same discussion that they've been having for literal years.
I always interpret someone calling my name as an express invitation for me to share my thoughts. For example, "Spigl" wants me to post -- that is why he trolls me. Remember it always takes two to tango, and I didn't ask anyone to dance here. If you don't want me to dance, don't invite me.
But do you really think it is fair for me to have to read the same nonsense for decades, and then gag me?
I'm sure it would be nice for like minded people to come together in an echo chamber and reinforce each others beliefs, without someone creating ripples in their illusions.
All I ever ask is for someone to link your beliefs to reality with supporting facts and evidence, rather than leaps of faith and fallacies.