Official Idaho HS XC 2023 Thread

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1 year ago 09/18/2023 1:55pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
Predictions for Ringert in the sweepstakes??
I think he'll be in the 35th-45th pocket, at around 14:30-14:45.
He's run 9:12 for 2 miles, with a handful of sub 9:30 races. 15:28 at State last year, and got 15th at Bob Firman last year, which is probably his biggest accomplishment.

Aged well.

Ringert is a pretty serious threat in Idaho. 36th place at the Sweeps race with a 14:27 is legit, especially for a course slightly long. He might break 15 in the 5k at some point this season.

1 year ago 09/18/2023 2:15pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
Maybe ... wrote:
Predictions for Ringert in the sweepstakes??
I think he'll be in the 35th-45th pocket, at around 14:30-14:45.
He's run 9:12 for 2 miles, with a handful of sub 9:30 races. 15:28 at State last year, and got 15th at Bob Firman last year, which is probably his biggest accomplishment.
Aged well.
Ringert is a pretty serious threat in Idaho. 36th place at the Sweeps race with a 14:27 is legit, especially for a course slightly long. He might break 15 in the 5k at some point this season.

Agreed. What time/place do you think that would get Ringert at Bob Furman this weekend?

1 year ago 09/18/2023 2:50pm EDT

re: okthenmarkit

okthenmarkit wrote:
Maybe ... wrote:
Aged well.
Ringert is a pretty serious threat in Idaho. 36th place at the Sweeps race with a 14:27 is legit, especially for a course slightly long. He might break 15 in the 5k at some point this season.
Agreed. What time/place do you think that would get Ringert at Bob Furman this weekend?

Top 15-20 at Firman, probably around 15:3x

1 year ago 09/18/2023 3:37pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
okthenmarkit wrote:
Agreed. What time/place do you think that would get Ringert at Bob Furman this weekend?
Top 15-20 at Firman, probably around 15:3x

I think just under 15:30

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:13am EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
okthenmarkit wrote:
Agreed. What time/place do you think that would get Ringert at Bob Furman this weekend?
Top 15-20 at Firman, probably around 15:3x

Last year he was 15th. His speed rating from Woodbridge would have been 12th last year. Without looking at who is entered and how they are running, I’d say 10-15 is the likely range if he runs similar to Woodbridge.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:27am EDT

re: Cwer

Bob Firman Entries list

athletic.net

Track & Field, Cross Country Results, Statistics

Meet results and team scores.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/221...

Heemeyer is entered

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:28am EDT

re: Entres

Entres wrote:
Bob Firman Entries list
Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/221...
Heemeyer is entered

so is noonan

1 year ago 09/19/2023 10:17am EDT

re: Lllllll

I think the field at Firman is much better this year. 15th in this field would be great, and it may take sub 15:30 to do it.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 10:30am EDT

re: SmoothieSmoovie

If everyone races to their best speed rating he’d be about 19th, though we have seen much in the way of speed ratings yet for the Oregon and Washington runners.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 11:50am EDT

re: Lllllll

Top 10 Boys and Girls individual recorded speed ratings (excluding Bogus, because they say high degree of uncertainty):

Boys:
Stadtlander (Caldwell Invite) 182
Cervi-Skinner (Farragut) 179
Ringert (Woodbridge) 179
Lucas (Caldwell) 178
King (Farragut) 176
Helder (Cardinal Classic) 176
Blaser (Jimmy Driscoll) 173
Stockett (Caldwell) 172
May (Libby) 171
Cervi-Skinner (Libby) 171

Girls:
Roberts (Tiger/Grizz) 131
Bruce (Cardinal Classic) 122
Baruch (Woodbridge) 115
Johnson (Tiger/Grizz) 114
Taylor (Farragut) 112
Stevens (Jimmy Driscoll) 112
Earl (Tiger/Grizz) 109
Orme (Cardinal Classic) 109
Earl (Cardinal Classic) 108
Ihmels (Tiger/Grizz) 108

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:14pm EDT

re: justboise?

justboise? wrote:
Top 10 Boys and Girls individual recorded speed ratings (excluding Bogus, because they say high degree of uncertainty):
Boys:
Stadtlander (Caldwell Invite) 182
Cervi-Skinner (Farragut) 179
Ringert (Woodbridge) 179
Lucas (Caldwell) 178
King (Farragut) 176
Helder (Cardinal Classic) 176
Blaser (Jimmy Driscoll) 173
Stockett (Caldwell) 172
May (Libby) 171
Cervi-Skinner (Libby) 171
Girls:
Roberts (Tiger/Grizz) 131
Bruce (Cardinal Classic) 122
Baruch (Woodbridge) 115
Johnson (Tiger/Grizz) 114
Taylor (Farragut) 112
Stevens (Jimmy Driscoll) 112
Earl (Tiger/Grizz) 109
Orme (Cardinal Classic) 109
Earl (Cardinal Classic) 108
Ihmels (Tiger/Grizz) 108

Interesting and useful as far as it goes, but I’m pretty confident Heemeyer (179 on a rolled ankle, I think) and Kemper’s (172) speed ratings were in the right ballpark for their performances for Bogus (he noted it may be somewhat accurate for high finishers) and Woodbridge was scored more favorably than many of the Idaho meets have been so far. It’s early and the top 10 speed ratings may shift a lot after this weekend. It wouldn’t even surprise me if 80% of this list has new speed ratings to set the rankings.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:22pm EDT

re: Lllllll

speed ratings tend to be on the lower side early season

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:23pm EDT

re: Lllllll

Lllllll wrote:
justboise? wrote:
Top 10 Boys and Girls individual recorded speed ratings (excluding Bogus, because they say high degree of uncertainty):
Boys:
Stadtlander (Caldwell Invite) 182
Cervi-Skinner (Farragut) 179
Ringert (Woodbridge) 179
Lucas (Caldwell) 178
King (Farragut) 176
Helder (Cardinal Classic) 176
Blaser (Jimmy Driscoll) 173
Stockett (Caldwell) 172
May (Libby) 171
Cervi-Skinner (Libby) 171
Girls:
Roberts (Tiger/Grizz) 131
Bruce (Cardinal Classic) 122
Baruch (Woodbridge) 115
Johnson (Tiger/Grizz) 114
Taylor (Farragut) 112
Stevens (Jimmy Driscoll) 112
Earl (Tiger/Grizz) 109
Orme (Cardinal Classic) 109
Earl (Cardinal Classic) 108
Ihmels (Tiger/Grizz) 108
Interesting and useful as far as it goes, but I’m pretty confident Heemeyer (179 on a rolled ankle, I think) and Kemper’s (172) speed ratings were in the right ballpark for their performances for Bogus (he noted it may be somewhat accurate for high finishers) and Woodbridge was scored more favorably than many of the Idaho meets have been so far. It’s early and the top 10 speed ratings may shift a lot after this weekend. It wouldn’t even surprise me if 80% of this list has new speed ratings to set the rankings.

The winner of Firman this year is almost guaranteed to break 15 given the talent entered... That alone will earn a 195+ speed rating. If any Idaho kids can make top 5-10, (Heemeyer for sure, Ringert and Stadtlander potentially possible) then this list will get majorly shaken up.

Herriman is probably capable of averaging in the 15:40-15:55 range, which is just absurdly fast, but they don't seem to like to lead much, so hopefully someone up front (Noonan or Heemeyer) does the work and drags everyone to fast times.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:29pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
Lllllll wrote:
Interesting and useful as far as it goes, but I’m pretty confident Heemeyer (179 on a rolled ankle, I think) and Kemper’s (172) speed ratings were in the right ballpark for their performances for Bogus (he noted it may be somewhat accurate for high finishers) and Woodbridge was scored more favorably than many of the Idaho meets have been so far. It’s early and the top 10 speed ratings may shift a lot after this weekend. It wouldn’t even surprise me if 80% of this list has new speed ratings to set the rankings.
The winner of Firman this year is almost guaranteed to break 15 given the talent entered... That alone will earn a 195+ speed rating. If any Idaho kids can make top 5-10, (Heemeyer for sure, Ringert and Stadtlander potentially possible) then this list will get majorly shaken up.
Herriman is probably capable of averaging in the 15:40-15:55 range, which is just absurdly fast, but they don't seem to like to lead much, so hopefully someone up front (Noonan or Heemeyer) does the work and drags everyone to fast times.

Noonan won't lead, to beat Noonan you have to drop him. Thats why Perez took the woodbridge field out in 4:23

1 year ago 09/19/2023 12:40pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

For the first lap I’d guess the Firman lead pack should include at least Noonan, Heemeyer, Jourdan, Westfall, Steadman, and Henzke as they are all Dyestat preseason top 100.

Stadtlander, Meier, Wetzel, and the rest of the Herriman team should be there close as well. Ringert, Helder, Kemper, Athay (long break and late start to training suggests we’ll see bigger than average late season improvements), Lucas, Johnston, Blaser, Sheesley, and Stocket for Idaho could all make a reasonable push to be up there in the top 20, as well as Star Valley’s No. 2 Burton, Stanley from Trabuco Hills, and Milne from Corner Canyon.

Probably missing a couple.

Noonan’s kick was insane at Woodbridge. Anyone who wants to beat beat him should plan on having a big lead.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 1:47pm EDT

re: Maybe ...

Maybe ... wrote:
Lllllll wrote:
Interesting and useful as far as it goes, but I’m pretty confident Heemeyer (179 on a rolled ankle, I think) and Kemper’s (172) speed ratings were in the right ballpark for their performances for Bogus (he noted it may be somewhat accurate for high finishers) and Woodbridge was scored more favorably than many of the Idaho meets have been so far. It’s early and the top 10 speed ratings may shift a lot after this weekend. It wouldn’t even surprise me if 80% of this list has new speed ratings to set the rankings.
The winner of Firman this year is almost guaranteed to break 15 given the talent entered... That alone will earn a 195+ speed rating. If any Idaho kids can make top 5-10, (Heemeyer for sure, Ringert and Stadtlander potentially possible) then this list will get majorly shaken up.
Herriman is probably capable of averaging in the 15:40-15:55 range, which is just absurdly fast, but they don't seem to like to lead much, so hopefully someone up front (Noonan or Heemeyer) does the work and drags everyone to fast times.

Heemeyer has to string it out if he wants to win, or even be top 5. He's not going to outkick Steadman, Jordoun, Stadtlander, and Noonan. There are surely other guys that can outkick him if the pace drags at all. If he's been missing a lot of time over the last 3 weeks, he's just not going to be sharp enough.

The big question for me is if the Idaho all-stars will collectively score lower than Herriman at Firman. Ringert was in between Herriman's 4th and 5th (their 5th ran .4 slower than him). If you think Ringert can run sub 15:30, then it stands to reason that Herriman could average in the 15:20 range given their pack and how tightly they run. The top 5 Idaho boys ran a 15:26 average last year. If Heemeyer is even slightly off, I don't think the Idaho all-stars would beat Herriman.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 2:29pm EDT

re: justboise?

justboise? wrote:
Maybe ... wrote:
The winner of Firman this year is almost guaranteed to break 15 given the talent entered... That alone will earn a 195+ speed rating. If any Idaho kids can make top 5-10, (Heemeyer for sure, Ringert and Stadtlander potentially possible) then this list will get majorly shaken up.
Herriman is probably capable of averaging in the 15:40-15:55 range, which is just absurdly fast, but they don't seem to like to lead much, so hopefully someone up front (Noonan or Heemeyer) does the work and drags everyone to fast times.
Heemeyer has to string it out if he wants to win, or even be top 5. He's not going to outkick Steadman, Jordoun, Stadtlander, and Noonan. There are surely other guys that can outkick him if the pace drags at all. If he's been missing a lot of time over the last 3 weeks, he's just not going to be sharp enough.
The big question for me is if the Idaho all-stars will collectively score lower than Herriman at Firman. Ringert was in between Herriman's 4th and 5th (their 5th ran .4 slower than him). If you think Ringert can run sub 15:30, then it stands to reason that Herriman could average in the 15:20 range given their pack and how tightly they run. The top 5 Idaho boys ran a 15:26 average last year. If Heemeyer is even slightly off, I don't think the Idaho all-stars would beat Herriman.

Okay that’s funny. If you score it by just 2023 season best speed ratings then Herriman would win. If you do it by lifetime best (getting Heemeyer’s and Athay’s 190+ rankings) then Idaho easily wins.

It might actually be close.

#338

This post was removed.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 2:53pm EDT

This quoted post has been removed.

Guy, are you seriously saying that a Utah team doesn't know a tough course? They beat American Fork head to head at 4500' elevation. These also aren't 16:00 guys that are going to be moving up. Where they will be at in the race will give them plenty of space to move up. It's not going to exactly be crowded at faster than 16:00. They aren't going to go out in 70th. They'll go out in 20-25th and move up from there.

1 year ago 09/19/2023 5:03pm EDT

re: justboise?

justboise? wrote:
Top 10 Boys and Girls individual recorded speed ratings (excluding Bogus, because they say high degree of uncertainty):
Boys:
Stadtlander (Caldwell Invite) 182
Cervi-Skinner (Farragut) 179
Ringert (Woodbridge) 179
Lucas (Caldwell) 178
King (Farragut) 176
Helder (Cardinal Classic) 176
Blaser (Jimmy Driscoll) 173
Stockett (Caldwell) 172
May (Libby) 171
Cervi-Skinner (Libby) 171
Girls:
Roberts (Tiger/Grizz) 131
Bruce (Cardinal Classic) 122
Baruch (Woodbridge) 115
Johnson (Tiger/Grizz) 114
Taylor (Farragut) 112
Stevens (Jimmy Driscoll) 112
Earl (Tiger/Grizz) 109
Orme (Cardinal Classic) 109
Earl (Cardinal Classic) 108
Ihmels (Tiger/Grizz) 108

Boys team speed rankings:
CDA- 179, 176, 171, 171, 167
Boise- 176, 172 (Bogus) 169, 162, 158
Rocky Mountain- 179 (Bogus, doesn't have another time yet), 178, 164, 163, 163
Centennial- 173, 161, 155, 149, 149
Eagle- 178, ~160, ~148, ~147, ~146
Mountain View- 164, 163, 155, 154, 150
Timberline- 168, 160, 145, 144, 142

7 way meet between these schools with preference on ties to meets with higher certainty of speed rankings, only plotting 5 runners:
CDA, Rocky, Eagle, Rocky, CDA, Boise, Centennial, Boise, CDA, CDA, Boise, Timberline, CDA, Rocky, MV, Rocky, Rocky, MV, Boise, Centennial, Timberline, Eagle, Boise, MV, Centennial, MV, MV, Centennial, Centennial, Eagle, Eagle, Eagle, Timberline, Timberline, Timberline.

CDA 38 pts, Rocky 53, Boise 65 Cent 109, MV 110, Eagle 118, Timberline 135

These look like the top 7 teams in 5A at the moment.

6 and 7 shouldn't alter these placements. I'll do girls later today.

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