Olemomoi, Chelangat, Cook. What were their times at NCAA XC? What did they run at BU? Now what did Valby run at NCAA XC? What would she have run at BU. Pretty simple analysis.
You are in a Valby thread. How could the estimate be anything other than 15:00 if comparing her performance to the performances of the runners in the 3000 and 5000 at BU and at the NCAA XC meet?
It is a stretch to claim that Tuohy ran to her full potential at BU while simultaneously claiming that Valby is in 15 shape. Tuohy beat most of thos BU runners by 15- 20 seconds plus over 6k at XC, and Valby by 3 seconds. If Valby is in 15 min shape based on her XC times, then so is Tuohy and Tuohy had an off day at BU.
If you are going to claim that Valby is in 14:40 to 15 min shape based on SECs, well then boy did the alabama runners have a bad day at BU. Chelangat should have run 14:40's to 15 and Olemomoi should have run much better as well. See how it makes no sense?
Olemomoi, Chelangat, Cook. What were their times at NCAA XC? What did they run at BU? Now what did Valby run at NCAA XC? What would she have run at BU. Pretty simple analysis.
A simple anaylsis for (and by) a simple mind. How about adding Tuohy, Chmiel, Stearns to the bs you call analysis? They all ran at BU and NCAA XC too.
because it was simple, and if that is what you deem an analysis, you must be simple. I started looking at all of those who ran at BU and at NCAA XC.
This includes more who were in top 10 at NCAA that you beglected, and whole lot more, some of whom seems to have had bad days at one race or the other.
Including the (I think generously fast) guesses for those that ran the 3000, I get this group averaged 20:05 at XC and 15:39 at BU. Valby was 19:30.9 at XC or about 34 seconds faster than the average. One might conclude she might be about 28 (5/6 of 34) seconds faster than the average at 5000, or 15:11. But, in my opinion, there were more who had the bad day at XC and the better day at BU than vice versa so the 15:11 is on the low side. But, just my opinion.
The reason I did not reply to you last time is because you were so obtuse in failing to realize the original discussion had nothing to do with Tuohy.
The original point was that, with updated data, Valby was likely in ~14:55 shape when she ran the SEC course, instead of 14:40 shape per John Kellog. JO knew what the point was, but rather than come out and say it, he danced around it, by bringing tuohy into the discussion, implying Valby’s performance was “dubious”.
Olemomoi, Chelangat, Cook. What were their times at NCAA XC? What did they run at BU? Now what did Valby run at NCAA XC? What would she have run at BU. Pretty simple analysis.
A simple anaylsis for (and by) a simple mind. How about adding Tuohy, Chmiel, Stearns to the bs you call analysis? They all ran at BU and NCAA XC too.
Because I already told you, the Stillwater course did not demonstrate the fitness Valby displayed on the SEC course; Horses for Courses.” You too are too obtuse, or simply choose to not understand that.
In addition, it is quite possible Valby had peaked at the SEC meet, then ran Regionals a bit too hard, and consequently was a little flat at Natty’s a week later.
A simple anaylsis for (and by) a simple mind. How about adding Tuohy, Chmiel, Stearns to the bs you call analysis? They all ran at BU and NCAA XC too.
Because I already told you, the Stillwater course did not demonstrate the fitness Valby displayed on the SEC course; Horses for Courses.” You too are too obtuse, or simply choose to not understand that.
In addition, it is quite possible Valby had peaked at the SEC meet, then ran Regionals a bit too hard, and consequently was a little flat at Natty’s a week later.
I did not decide to use NCAA XC as a basis - the other "analyst" did. But I am sure there are many possible excuses for Valby losing at NCAA XC that you could come up with.
A simple anaylsis for (and by) a simple mind. How about adding Tuohy, Chmiel, Stearns to the bs you call analysis? They all ran at BU and NCAA XC too.
Because I already told you, the Stillwater course did not demonstrate the fitness Valby displayed on the SEC course; Horses for Courses.” You too are too obtuse, or simply choose to not understand that.
In addition, it is quite possible Valby had peaked at the SEC meet, then ran Regionals a bit too hard, and consequently was a little flat at Natty’s a week later.
But nonetheless, after looking at updated data from the BU meet, and listening to the testimony of her coach, including what he was able to determine from the Ole Miss coach, I still think Valby displayed sub-15 fitness at the SEC meet. She may been off that edge at Natty’s, Nonetheless, I’m thinking if they keep consistent with training, she’ll be able to display that sub-15 fitness again in a couple of months.
Because I already told you, the Stillwater course did not demonstrate the fitness Valby displayed on the SEC course; Horses for Courses.” You too are too obtuse, or simply choose to not understand that.
In addition, it is quite possible Valby had peaked at the SEC meet, then ran Regionals a bit too hard, and consequently was a little flat at Natty’s a week later.
But nonetheless, after looking at updated data from the BU meet, and listening to the testimony of her coach, including what he was able to determine from the Ole Miss coach, I still think Valby displayed sub-15 fitness at the SEC meet. She may been off that edge at Natty’s, Nonetheless, I’m thinking if they keep consistent with training, she’ll be able to display that sub-15 fitness again in a couple of months.
Based on the SEC meet, where Chelangat was only 7.5 seconds behind over 6k, what fitness is she in? See how that works?
Because I already told you, the Stillwater course did not demonstrate the fitness Valby displayed on the SEC course; Horses for Courses.” You too are too obtuse, or simply choose to not understand that.
In addition, it is quite possible Valby had peaked at the SEC meet, then ran Regionals a bit too hard, and consequently was a little flat at Natty’s a week later.
But nonetheless, after looking at updated data from the BU meet, and listening to the testimony of her coach, including what he was able to determine from the Ole Miss coach, I still think Valby displayed sub-15 fitness at the SEC meet. She may been off that edge at Natty’s, Nonetheless, I’m thinking if they keep consistent with training, she’ll be able to display that sub-15 fitness again in a couple of months.
So then, Chelangat was also "off" at BU, and really, really "off" at NCAA?
Or maybe the SEC course was too easy or short to form any valid projection.
I know LRC looked into the course discrepancy in the race aftermath, since that SEC performance was so sensational, resulting in such a media stir.
LRC then questioned Solinsky live, “on film”, regarding what he had determined about the course post-race; that specific exchange starts @ time stamp 1:45:
The Florida coach talked about Valby's run and great season. Full 2022 NCAA XC coverage here: https://www.letsrun.com/events/2022/11/2022-ncaa-cross-country...
I see where you are coming from. Ok. I project that Tuohy showed 14:30 fitness at the ACCs, but was later off edge. Just needs tht consistent training.
Or maybe the SEC course was too easy or short to form any valid projection.
I know LRC looked into the course discrepancy in the race aftermath, since that SEC performance was so sensational, resulting in such a media stir.
LRC then questioned Solinsky live, “on film”, regarding what he had determined about the course post-race; that specific exchange starts @ time stamp 1:45:
Notice when Solinsky is asked specifically whether Valby is in 14:40 shape, he almost immediately puts the brakes on that, and will not commit to that. He does imply though that she is a lot fitter now, when he says, “Her Personal Bests from a year ago are a thing of the past.”
No one believes the hype on the SEC results, sorry. Something like 8 out of the 10 fastest 6k times this season from that one race.
Chelangat is not in sub 15 shape. Unless you think otherwise? What is your Chelangat estimate? No one hyping the SEC results will say, which is telling.