casual obsever wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
Medals won is not the same as smashing world records.
That's why I said "not quite", not "you are wrong".
"Nothing shows" is too strong for my taste, when global gold medals (more successful/faster athletes) are dirtier than silver medals by a factor of 55/47 = 1.17.
But it's apples and oranges, and just muddies the water.
Recall we are in a thread about Gidey speculating the possibility of this performance being doped, by virtue of smashing the world record by a lot. Olympic and World Championships are often slow, tactical races, rather than a maximum physical test.
We simply don't have any data that could produce a histogram of doping prevalence along the spectrum of performance that shows us faster times are doped more than middle of the pack performances or slower performances.
I also remember:
- these percentages are not measures of "dirty", but measures of "suspicion" in blood values relative to general population thresholds, partly corrected for altitude, and partly collected under pre-standard conditions known to produce false positives
- without standard deviation measurements, it's not clear whether 1.17x is significant, or whether random variation is noisy and 50 +/- 5 should be considered statistically in the noise.
- blood suspicion isn't linked in time to the medal win, so the medals won percentages are inflated. It is not clear that prevalence among medal winners is higher than global average prevalence
- blood collection wasn't uniform across all athletes. Medal winners would be over-represented with more samples in the database, and a higher chance of being suspicious due to a false positive
- we saw that longer distances are less suspicious with only 1 in 9 medals won being suspicious in the marathon. The semi-marathon is closer to the marathon (11%) than it is the 1500m (54%).
- the blood collection forming the global average is from athletes in all athletics events, while the medal counts are from selected distance events, including two race walking events
Notwithstanding your suspicious medals won count analysis, we really have nothing that says that 64 minute runners contain a higher percentage of dopers than 67 minute runners or 70 minute runners. Rather than begging the question, we could hypothesize that prevalence is flat as a function of performance, or that the peak prevalence is among middle of the pack runners with a bigger motivation and desire to break through to the next level, but with only limited marginal success.