Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost, again it is not about "trends." There was a relatively well-known study done 30 years ago that concluded 96% of one's portfolio performance is derived from proper diversification and only 4% from stock picking and market-picking. So, you really can hope to match what the market does, which historically has returned 10% (11% with dividends reinvested) or 7% when you figure in inflation. That is over the last 100 years. No other investment comes close.

That study is commonly promoted by the industry, just like double digit equity returns. But hey I am not going to waste a lot of time arguing the point, but the history of the last eighteen years is quite a bit different than the last 30 or 130 years. Now I ask you is the next eighteen years more like the last eighteen or the last thirty?

Again! You are cherry-picking "the last 18 years." Why always do you choose that time frame?

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mine, up 9% annualized past 30 years.

Which funds do you have to bring up your sadly performing CDs and that other fund to 9% over the last 30 years. I am not seeing it at all.

Well in the fall of 2008 when you were hunkered down in the hurt locker I was buying financials and levered up S&P 500.

Even if you cherry-pick, you can see how the market has done over the last 18 years versus your favored CDs. Not even close!

https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-bee9d3d363e6964080e2056af9538b4a.pdf

Tech Peak to All Everything Peak, not your fake stats of a low to a high, or quoting 100 years as if that is relevant.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Tech Peak to All Everything Peak, not your fake stats of a low to a high, or quoting 100 years as if that is relevant.

+3.314% with $3.5 Trillion in QE.

Pitiful really.

Fed can’t even raise interest rates with out you folks freaking.

And you think this has a benign ending?

OK, it wasn’t me soiling my breeches in December.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Tech Peak to All Everything Peak, not your fake stats of a low to a high, or quoting 100 years as if that is relevant.

I can quote 10 years, I can quote 30 years or I can quote 100 years. Each of those time frames beats the heck out of your CDs or your lame fund.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Goudas wrote:

It’s a lie.

(You realize some stocks were up in 2018, right.)

Of course there were stocks up, you just didn’t own them. Why? Virtually every stock index was down in 2018.

I own individual stocks, not index funds. You fail again.

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

SAlly Vx wrote:

Even if you cherry-pick, you can see how the market has done over the last 18 years versus your favored CDs. Not even close!

https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II514-bee9d3d363e6964080e2056af9538b4a.pdf

I can’t help it that you are effectively brain dead, since iI told you I have not been in CDs for thirty years.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

Not really smart to focus on the performance in any one year. Would you not agree with that? You would instead be interested in how your portfolio has done over a longer period of time.

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

Not really smart to focus on the performance in any one year. Would you not agree with that? You would instead be interested in how your portfolio has done over a longer period of time.

Seriously, you are asking about one year's performance? Really?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

+5.8%. Worst year in a decade.

SAlly Vx wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

Not really smart to focus on the performance in any one year. Would you not agree with that? You would instead be interested in how your portfolio has done over a longer period of time.

Seriously, you are asking about one year's performance? Really?

No sorries Sally, keep doing what you’re doing. You live another 100 years you’ll be just fine.

Goudas wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

+5.8%. Worst year in a decade.

Good job. Beat the market. Let’s talk this time next month and each month thereafter.

Goudas wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, then how did your potfolio do in 2018? Let’s have it rather than these mind games?

+5.8%. Worst year in a decade.

Is that inflation-adjusted. Ghost's CDs were 0.85% inflation-adjusted and he is touting that as supremely great.

SAlly Vx wrote:

Goudas wrote:

+5.8%. Worst year in a decade.

Is that inflation-adjusted. Ghost's CDs were 0.85% inflation-adjusted and he is touting that as supremely great.

No my portfolio was up +7%, soundly defeating the cheesee guy and of course your -7% loss in 2018.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

Is that inflation-adjusted. Ghost's CDs were 0.85% inflation-adjusted and he is touting that as supremely great.

No my portfolio was up +7%, soundly defeating the cheesee guy and of course your -7% loss in 2018.

I thought you said it was +9%?

It does seem trade deal is priced in. IMO there's more risk than reward now after the rally.