Another run across America underway - is it legit? Boots currently on the ground

All good, humble thanks.. please do run it on a couple activity log data and look at the places it flags and I think you will see what I'm thinking here; smoothing probably doesn't dismiss these areas it flags. I mean the point of the code is just to find times/places that might be interesting to look at, nothing conclusive of course. Also, uncomment the other "ALERT" lines and checkout the things it flags based on cadence and heartrate. I put examples I used for: cadence less than 10 and speed greater than 10min/mile pace; heartrate under 100 and speed sub-10min pace. Play with those values also and then just look at the rows around the alert points or manually in the UI.

On 2024-03-08 and 2024-03-09 are where you will find a large number of points where those two conditions are met. However, it generally doesn't look suspicious to me for those two days because we know PJ is using trekking poles and they were the two most vertical days so far (meaning there were also downhill portions). Also, the speed histogram I have for those two days show the vast majority of the time, his speed was 7.5 mph and under. Time in the 7.5-9 mph range could be achievable with the trekking poles helping going down hill.

And as always, there are a very small numbers of points that are above 9 mph that can simply be explained by GPS position errors in the mountains.

ibb.co

2024-03-08-06-00-Smoothed-Speed-MPH-Histogram-Copy

Image 2024-03-08-06-00-Smoothed-Speed-MPH-Histogram-Copy hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/Vjk0SCW

ibb.co

2024-03-09-06-00-Smoothed-Speed-MPH-Histogram-Copy

Image 2024-03-09-06-00-Smoothed-Speed-MPH-Histogram-Copy hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/XLJpM3X

I also want to point out in the speed histograms of the 2024-03-08 and 2024-03-09 above that PJ looks to have been splitting his time in half walk and half running, which is why you see the two distinct humps in the histograms. His walking speed was about 3.5-4 mph for those days.

Yes, but I also wasting your time.

Paul is not elite. He's also under scrutiny for cheating. If he wants the scrutiny to go.away, he can do.so, easily. If he doesn't he's a cheat. Like your buddy Goodge

Sneakers, I appreciate you sharing this. After a few thousand posts, this thread is suddenly much more productive than ever before.

3/8 was the day I had issues with, and really the only day I looked at closely. That is the double upload day. In my experience, using poles has no effect on cadence captured by my watch. Paul is using two of the nicest watches out there and they both showed the cadence of zero while still moving anomaly.

Are you volunteering to be the next boots on the ground that's going to drive out to PJ the next time he is near some mountains? Analyzing data can reveal a lot but still requires eye witnesses to match it up with reality.

This is a good point. PJ is using nice hardware and that gives us quality data. In regards to the smoothing approach, I prefer to keep the python output csv data strict to the numbers (including or highlighting wonky points) and then use scatter plots to see the moving average (smooth trend lines) with the wonky outlier dots. I am not discounting the smoothing approach, I just prefer to look at the smooth version later and see that in visualizations during analysis.

Ha, no I will not be doing that. And frankly, now that Paul isn’t going to get the record, I don’t think it’s that important.

It is interesting comparing this attempt to Goodge’s. All that was off with goodge’s run was odd HR. We all get weird HR data from time to time, though not as consistently as he did. However, no one could even come up with a theory as to his method of cheating that would cause the phenomenon. With Paul, we saw what one would expect if he was riding in the rv from time to time. This is far more suspect than anything from Goodge’s run imo.

Yeah, as fascinating as it is to discuss the internals of JSON files and python coding, how else can anyone explain two uploads, from two top-end watches, showing cadences of zero while still moving for an extended period of time.

However, to other's point, this could easily be cleared up by also presenting the Garmin Connect chart, which I have. All we want to see are the colored dots!

Exactly this. I don't need to be a mathematician to know that if I shoot an arrow directly at someone it will hit them - despite that it will at one time be half the distance to them, then half that distance, etc. The simplest answer is usually the correct answer. If someone is moving with zero cadence, they are getting a ride. If others want to believe different, that's cool.

All he's doing is adding to the list of people who show that these "events" have become social media "look at me" gimmicks for narcissists. I'm sure his fan base doesn't really care if he rides across the US in a van going 5mph or runs some of it, and does it matter? What changes if he runs 3000 miles in 50 days of 2000 miles in 50days? There are endless social media hucksters out there, he's just one more, you can't get worked up about all of them.

The difference here with him is that the US Navy has picked this up and is now involved by advertising his efforts.

Hopefully he's doing this with honor and won't have to deal with the guilt later on in life, potentially causing more mental health issues

Nice, your plot of cadence drop out from your own use of poles is pretty much exactly what I'm seeing in PJ's

Because PJ is using a trekking in each hand which makes sense for both of the watches to be dropping cadence

This isn't shooting an arrow directly at someone. This is going across a whole country. You would need rocket ballistics math.

The simplest answer here for cadence is simply that PJ is using trekking poles causing the cadence drop outs which is a widely known issue, and which there are plenty of photos of

This is exactly my observation too. Unlike Goodge, Johnson seemed like he was more genuine about actually doing the run, just stupid and naive about his goal. This was proven when he soon started to collapse.

However, his crew kept saying that they had recieved a lot of advice telling them to hang in because the first 10 days are the hardest and then your body begins to adapt. It seems quite clear that they have used this in order to claim that Paul has now recovered from his initial rocky patch and his body is now used to the 60 miles a day. He is now in full on Goodge cheat mode.

Incidently, Goodge today has put out an advert on Instagram advertising for a full time videographer to travel the world with him, staying in 5 star hotels and eating Michelen restaurant food. So he's clearly doing ok for himself.

Yours is completely different and proves my point. Yours drops momentarily. His drops for long periods. Sometimes for 4 miles. Let's see his Garmin Connect (from a newer watch) data. It will look different to yours.

I have a theory that Cockerell is on a plane right now flying to America and that is why he went silent, not because he opened his mind to what the data actually shows.

PJ joined today by the verified bib muler Matt Choi after a few guest appearances by that runfluencer in the helmet and skin suit. This run is a parody of itself.