Down goes the Dow

It's not impressing me. That's one ugly chart. I'd take Hussman over that.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Outperformed your stock overweight portfolio by about +7% in 2018.

You are looking at one year. The one fund you mentioned has done horribly in recent years. My diversified portfolio has far surpassed it.

seattle prattle wrote:

It's not impressing me. That's one ugly chart. I'd take Hussman over that.

I bet it outperformed all your moving in and out of funds in 2018.

Is that correct?

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Outperformed your stock overweight portfolio by about +7% in 2018.

You are looking at one year. The one fund you mentioned has done horribly in recent years. My diversified portfolio has far surpassed it.

Well, I didn’t buy the fund until your portfolio started going down and mine up.

So what do you have to say about that?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

SAlly Vx wrote:

You are looking at one year. The one fund you mentioned has done horribly in recent years. My diversified portfolio has far surpassed it.

Well, I didn’t buy the fund until your portfolio started going down and mine up.

So what do you have to say about that?

Again, you have an underperforming fund and are heavily invested in CDs which have real returns of 1% over the last 30 years. The stock market has real returns of over 7% over the same 30 years. Which investment portfolio would you deem better?

Mine, up 9% annualized past 30 years.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

It's not impressing me. That's one ugly chart. I'd take Hussman over that.

I bet it outperformed all your moving in and out of funds in 2018.

Is that correct?

That fund is a train wreck with one mediocre year. I'd take a portfolio with some ups and downs but more solid gains overall anyday to that thing.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Outperformed your stock overweight portfolio by about +7% in 2018.

Are lies the only weapon you have left?

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I bet it outperformed all your moving in and out of funds in 2018.

Is that correct?

That fund is a train wreck with one mediocre year. I'd take a portfolio with some ups and downs but more solid gains overall anyday to that thing.

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

Goudas wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Outperformed your stock overweight portfolio by about +7% in 2018.

Are lies the only weapon you have left?

No not a lie, if you were in stocks last year you had single digit losses of at least -5%, and the fund was up +2% for an outperformance of +7%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

That fund is a train wreck with one mediocre year. I'd take a portfolio with some ups and downs but more solid gains overall anyday to that thing.

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

Ghost, again it is not about "trends." There was a relatively well-known study done 30 years ago that concluded 96% of one's portfolio performance is derived from proper diversification and only 4% from stock picking and market-picking. So, you really can hope to match what the market does, which historically has returned 10% (11% with dividends reinvested) or 7% when you figure in inflation. That is over the last 100 years. No other investment comes close.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

That fund is a train wreck with one mediocre year. I'd take a portfolio with some ups and downs but more solid gains overall anyday to that thing.

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

And i would gather that you sold it on Dec. 31st, 2018. Because if you didn't, and are still holding it as we all suspect, no, it did not outperform my portfolio . Again, i would be more impressed if you sold at the end of the year. But based on your comments throughout the last month, i seriously doubt it.

Does the term cherry-picking apply here?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Goudas wrote:

Are lies the only weapon you have left?

No not a lie, if you were in stocks last year you had single digit losses of at least -5%, and the fund was up +2% for an outperformance of +7%.

It’s a lie.

(You realize some stocks were up in 2018, right.)

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

And i would gather that you sold it on Dec. 31st, 2018. Because if you didn't, and are still holding it as we all suspect, no, it did not outperform my portfolio . Again, i would be more impressed if you sold at the end of the year. But based on your comments throughout the last month, i seriously doubt it.

Does the term cherry-picking apply here?

He is infamous for cherry-picking. In looking at the stock market, he always wants to compare its performance beginning around 2000 right before the dot.com bubble bursted.

SAlly Vx wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

Ghost, again it is not about "trends." There was a relatively well-known study done 30 years ago that concluded 96% of one's portfolio performance is derived from proper diversification and only 4% from stock picking and market-picking. So, you really can hope to match what the market does, which historically has returned 10% (11% with dividends reinvested) or 7% when you figure in inflation. That is over the last 100 years. No other investment comes close.

That study is commonly promoted by the industry, just like double digit equity returns. But hey I am not going to waste a lot of time arguing the point, but the history of the last eighteen years is quite a bit different than the last 30 or 130 years. Now I ask you is the next eighteen years more like the last eighteen or the last thirty?

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I assume all your efforts in 2018 underperformed the fund and that is the point. Identifying trends. Of course I can be wrong but I believe it will dramaticallly outperform all your trading efforts in 2019. Let’s check at year end.

And i would gather that you sold it on Dec. 31st, 2018. Because if you didn't, and are still holding it as we all suspect, no, it did not outperform my portfolio . Again, i would be more impressed if you sold at the end of the year. But based on your comments throughout the last month, i seriously doubt it.

Does the term cherry-picking apply here?

OK. My portfolio is up +7% year over year since managed futures is only 5%.

Hey, maybe momentum is back. I just think that is wrong, but we’ll see.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Goudas wrote:

Are lies the only weapon you have left?

No not a lie, if you were in stocks last year you had single digit losses of at least -5%, and the fund was up +2% for an outperformance of +7%.

Are you really going to judge portfolios on the performance in one year?

Goudas wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No not a lie, if you were in stocks last year you had single digit losses of at least -5%, and the fund was up +2% for an outperformance of +7%.

It’s a lie.

(You realize some stocks were up in 2018, right.)

Of course there were stocks up, you just didn’t own them. Why? Virtually every stock index was down in 2018.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mine, up 9% annualized past 30 years.

Which funds do you have to bring up your sadly performing CDs and that other fund to 9% over the last 30 years. I am not seeing it at all.