Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 4% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 4% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Great news! Now the 800,000 newly jobless know what to do! Rob corporations, because that’s where the money is!
The CPI report from this morning showed inflationary pressure rising from almost every sector except for gas. Gas prices were down so much that it managed to counter the rising costs in other areas. However, oil just had it's best week since like, 2006 or something crazy. With oil going back up, I expect CPI to climb higher and force the Fed to raise the rate before June.
Today's low volume (sad!) tells me everyone is waiting on earning's season to start. Citi reports before the bell on Monday and rumor is that they didn't do as well as they hoped last quarter even despite the volatility (which is usually pretty lucrative for those guys). Other financials report next week too.
Government shutdown is starting to actually go long enough to affect the market I think. A lot of people missed a paycheck today. We'll see what happens with that.
Weed stocks (Igy's favorite) are on an hilarious tear right now. Seriously, the pump is real.
Racket, don’t worry, either smoke more dope or cut back on current consumption and everything will be OK. It’s all about getting the dosage right. Of course that is learned through experience.
Down (to zero) goes the pay of 800,000! Don’t be worried or anything.
“Our inability as market participants to properly frame market fragility and the inherent vulnerability of the financial system makes a market crash more likely, as it helps Systemic Risk go unattended and build further up. For the first time in a while, elusive economic narratives started to fail at blaming market weakness on secondary-order factors: Trade Wars, the FED, Oil prices. Attempts at dismissing market events as no more than a temporary turbulence miss the bigger picture and cast the fishing net on unaware investors looking for a dip to buy. In contrast, over the last month, conventional market and economic indicators (e.g. breaks of multi-year equity & home price trend-lines, freezing credit markets, softening global PMIs/orders) have all but confirmed what non-traditional measures of system-level fragility signalled all along: that a market crash is incubating, and the cliff is near. Nothing has happened yet.”
Fasanara Capital
Tell us something we don’t already know.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Our inability as market participants to properly frame market fragility and the inherent vulnerability of the financial system makes a market crash more likely, as it helps Systemic Risk go unattended and build further up. For the first time in a while, elusive economic narratives started to fail at blaming market weakness on secondary-order factors: Trade Wars, the FED, Oil prices. Attempts at dismissing market events as no more than a temporary turbulence miss the bigger picture and cast the fishing net on unaware investors looking for a dip to buy. In contrast, over the last month, conventional market and economic indicators (e.g. breaks of multi-year equity & home price trend-lines, freezing credit markets, softening global PMIs/orders) have all but confirmed what non-traditional measures of system-level fragility signalled all along: that a market crash is incubating, and the cliff is near. Nothing has happened yet.”
Fasanara Capital
"The sky is falling."
-Mr. Little
agip,
I will remind you how freaked out you were a couple of weeks ago. Do you really think that is all over?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I will remind you how freaked out you were a couple of weeks ago. Do you really think that is all over?
Igy
I have no idea if it is all over and neither does anyone else
What I do know that the chances of 'sky is falling' talk being correct is far, far, far, far lower than 'eh, we'll muddle through' talk
I think the govt. shut down is going to get the blame if markets reverse course and start re-visiting the lows of a month ago. And the fall-out will be HUGE. Make no mistakes about it. HUGE!
On the eve of the Mueller reports....
I don't think Trump would weather it. Honestly, and he knows that, so everything within the powers of the current administration would be thrown at not letting that happen.
seattle prattle wrote:
I think the govt. shut down is going to get the blame if markets reverse course and start re-visiting the lows of a month ago. And the fall-out will be HUGE. Make no mistakes about it. HUGE!
On the eve of the Mueller reports....
I don't think Trump would weather it. Honestly, and he knows that, so everything within the powers of the current administration would be thrown at not letting that happen.
it's pretty clear that trumpers will forgive trump anything, so I wouldn't expect anything to cost trump much support.
Personally I think the trigger for imminent market collapse is Megan Kelley leaving NBC with $Millions in her purse, and of course extremely overvalued equities along with shrinking liquidity. But select your reason of choice.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I think the govt. shut down is going to get the blame if markets reverse course and start re-visiting the lows of a month ago. And the fall-out will be HUGE. Make no mistakes about it. HUGE!
On the eve of the Mueller reports....
I don't think Trump would weather it. Honestly, and he knows that, so everything within the powers of the current administration would be thrown at not letting that happen.
it's pretty clear that trumpers will forgive trump anything, so I wouldn't expect anything to cost trump much support.
I am sure you are aware of how much of most people's retirement savings and investments are tied to the stock markets, mutual funds, etc. Do you think that the veritable decimation of that would go unnoticed?
And in the last few days there has been a lot of talk in the news how the ongoing shut-down is only starting to effect the larger economy.
Lastly, Trump's base is just a small segment. It's not necessarily where the strings of power and influence are pulled and manipulated. And Republican senators have to answer to their base back home.
A small portion love his hard negotiating tactics, but when it starts to be perceived as detrimental to the economy and people;s retirement savings, there will be tremendous pressure for him to open the govt. back up fully.
Many factors involved in the downturn, but we have more control over that one than most.
Of course the shutdown matters but it will end. The larger issue that has changed is the character of the market and this will determine where we are headed. Fasanara Capital does as good as job of any analysis of where we were and where we are headed. Of course the financial media always dishes out the same Bullish refrain, always the same, but unable to see the inevitable fail of this thinking. But that herding behavior and love of easy money with no pain is the way it works until it doesn’t. Then there will be hell to pay for the unbridled speculation of the last several years. The last quarter of 2018 was really nothing.
“Rather than 'a short-term correction in a structural bull market', or a 'temporary turmoil in healthy economic conditions', this is the beginning of a structural adjustment after a decade of liquidity abundance and market manipulation, which reflexively changed the structure itself of the market for private investors in hazardous ways, making it insensitive to fundamentals, passive or quasi-passive, overly-correlated and overly-concentrated. In a word, 'Fake Markets’ have now reached their nemesis and have woken up from a long lethargy. Fake Markets are defined, as of mid-2017, as ‘markets where the magnitude and duration of artificial flows from global Central Banks or passive investment vehicles have managed to overwhelm and narcotize data-dependency and macro factors. A stuporous state of durable, un-volatile over-valuation, arrested activity, unconsciousness produced by the influence of artificial money flows.’”
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I will remind you how freaked out you were a couple of weeks ago. Do you really think that is all over?
Igy
I have no idea if it is all over and neither does anyone else
That's Right! So whatever you do, don't fall in to the trap like he did several years ago and try timing the market.
Without a doubt, he's paid the price. But will never admit it.
Is Fasanara Capital selling something or are they an independent analysis? You and i both know they are another investment company trying to market their unique bias which will attract customers and make them money. Like Hussman Funds.
And at a certain point, the shutdown has lasting impacts on GDP and consumer and govt. spending.
Please 1 wrote:
agip wrote:
I have no idea if it is all over and neither does anyone else
That's Right! So whatever you do, don't fall in to the trap like he did several years ago and try timing the market.
Without a doubt, he's paid the price. But will never admit it.
I paid no price, but you already have and that was just a taste of the indigestion you will get once you eat the big enchilada.
seattle prattle wrote:
Is Fasanara Capital selling something or are they an independent analysis? You and i both know they are another investment company trying to market their unique bias which will attract customers and make them money. Like Hussman Funds.
And at a certain point, the shutdown has lasting impacts on GDP and consumer and govt. spending.
OK, unique at this stage of the economic cycle is probably a better choice than generic.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Personally I think the trigger for imminent market collapse is Megan Kelley leaving NBC with $Millions in her purse, and of course extremely overvalued equities along with shrinking liquidity. But select your reason of choice.
Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 15.1. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (16.4) but above the 10-year average (14.6).